354
FXUS64 KAMA 030520
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, FLASH FLOODING, AND TORNADOES... Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat
Aug 2 2025

The synopsis for tonight and early tomorrow morning is as follows:

An MCS complex is expected to move into our CWA late tonight and
move from northwest to southeast into the Texas Panhandle.
Thunderstorm activity is not expected to end until storms finally
move out of the High Plains and into western Oklahoma Sunday
morning. Conditions are favorable for a QLCS setup once storms
enter the Oklahoma Panhandle. All hazards are possible tonight,
especially if embedded supercells were to form on the southwestern
flank of the potential squall line. Isolated severe storms also
cannot be ruled out for the southwest Texas Panhandle this
evening.

The mesoanalysis:

Based off of recent 00Z CAMs and our 00Z AMA sounding, a
sufficient environment is primed for severe thunderstorms later
this evening with one temporary catch. An area of subsidence is
still present for portions of the western Texas Panhandle this
evening. At the time of this writing, we are watching a "moisture
line"; rather, a westward retreating boundary with high surface
and low level moisture on the eastern side. The main reason the
isolated thunderstorms have not sustained well into our are from
New Mexico is because of drier air aloft, leading to high MLCIN,
on the Texas side of the state line. Now that the moisture line
is moving through this zone, we will see this subsidence disperse
by the time the more linear storms arrive from Colorado and
Kansas. Not only that, but isolated storms may have a chance to
redevelop in our southwest zones if convective activity continues
as the retreating boundary overtakes the current storms.

Later tonight, around the 10-11 PM time frame, a line of storms is
expected to enter the Oklahoma Panhandle and move into the Texas
Panhandle as the night carries on. The forecast near storm
environment suggests that strong straight line winds (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2") is possible once the storms tap
into the local Theta-E maxima in the northern Panhandles and when
the low level jet increases over the CWA. These hazards have the
highest chance to occur if storms remain surface based upon
entry, but as the night progresses MUCAPE values are high enough
to support elevated severe storms. The highest tornado threat area
is expected to setup on the southwestern flank of the QLCS, as
forecasted 0-1 km SRH values may increase to over 200 m^2/s^2
based off RAP mesoanalysis. Thanks to the LLJ, stellar wind shear
will be in play throughout the evening. However, if surface wind vectors
stay orthogonal to the mean 500 mb winds, embedded supercells are
possible on the tail end of the line. This will not only increase
tornado potential, but also increase chances for significant hail
(<1.75") production.

As storms move further east, models show the line becoming outflow
dominant and slowly spreading out as cloud tops become warmer.
Very heavy rain will accompany this whole system, but flash
flooding concerns are the highest in the eastern combined
Panhandles since that is where the highest PWAT values are
forecast to be early tomorrow morning. The MCS may also slow down
and generate high amounts of backside precipitation. In doing so,
this increases flood chance in areas where slow moving storms
generate torrential rainfall. Precipitation may even continue for
hours over the same spot due to backside showers.

Rangel

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

-Severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday morning, and
 again Sunday night across the Panhandles.

-Watching for flash flooding potential through the weekend.

-Triple digit high temperatures return the middle of next week
 for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Tonight northwest flow aloft continues to sit over the combined
Panhandles. As of this writing showers and thunderstorms continue to
move southeast through the combined Panhandles. During these
overnight hours, thunderstorm activity is expected to be mainly over
the central to eastern combined Panhandles. Though there are some
supercells riding the NM/TX state line at this time. PVA in the NW
flow is to continue to keep thunderstorm activity through sunrise.
Storms should be confined to the far eastern combined Panhandles by
just before sunrise.

Going into the daytime, confidence is a bit low on how much activity
will continue through the day or if any additional thunderstorm
development will occur for this afternoon and evening. The latest
00Z HRRR was suggesting some supercells in the western combined
Panhandles for this afternoon and evening. However, it is thought
that this was based on the original HRRR solutions of nothing
happening in this overnight period. With some supercells riding the
stateline at this time, the environment in the west may be too
worked over for storms later this afternoon/evening. Even for the
central to eastern combined Panhandles activity will be contingent
on what happens the rest of this overnight period. PWATS continue to
be over an inch from the central to eastern Panhandles for this
afternoon. The west may fall below an inch in PWATs but there is a
bit of uncertainty. Most model guidance is now showing the western
Panhandles free of any additional storms for the rest of today.
Model guidance also, suggests capping in the low levels which
matches up with the thoughts of the environment being too worked
over for Sunday afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

Monday onward, conditions look to dry out again with little to no
chances for storms. With the way things have gone this summer
though, model guidance is not giving PoPs this far out. Still would
not rule out an isolated pop up storm in the afternoon/early evening
on Monday. Flow aloft will become more northerly on Monday with
temperatures still in the 80s for the afternoon. The high pressure
to the west will continue to build and bring warmer temperatures in
the long term. So enjoy the mild temperatures for one more day on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Upper level high pressure is progged to build over NM and encroach
even more on the FA Tue onward. Some triple digits are expected to
return Wed through Fri. With the high pressure in place the NBM
remains free of PoPs, but may have to add some 10 PoPs each day
depending on confidence in the short term for potential popcorn
thunderstorms. Thu is progged to have some of the lowest Tds for
Amarillo on Thu, which may be the best chance for Amarillo to break
its streak of no triple digits this summer. The NBM has a high of 99
progged for Amarillo on Thu with a high of 98 on Wed and Fri. Tds
will play a role in the ability for some areas to reach the triple
digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, will continue to
potentially impact the terminals through 12Z. By 12Z thunderstorm
activity should be east of the KGUY and KAMA line. KGUY may have a
period of MVFR CIGs around 09Z but mostly expected VFR conditions
outside of thunderstorms. However, some model guidance suggests
some MVFR to IFR CIGs for KAMA and KDHT between 12Z and 19Z. Will
have to monitor conditions and possibly issue some amendments.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36