Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
143 FXUS64 KAMA 140519 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1119 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Above average temperatures through the work week and into the weekend. Moderate chance for record high temperatures today and Saturday. - A weak weather system arriving Sunday night brings cooler conditions. - A further weather system brings the chance for precipitation for mid next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 As the ridge starts to shift further east today, we`ll get better southwest flow ahead of a large scale weather system off the CA coast. Record high temperatures look pretty favorable for Amarillo, and Borger, but given that the record for Dalhart is 84, that area will be a bit more challenging to occur. Most areas on Friday will see highs in the 80s with a possible 90 at Palo Duro Canyon State Park. Friday night we`ll get a little bit of increased west to southwest flow and the winds will help keep the air mixed, with overnight lows Saturday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. While we`ll still be very warm on Saturday the ridge will slowly start to break down, and winds should turn out of the north in the afternoon. Highs will still be in the mid to upper 70s for the central and northern Panhandle, with 80s across the south. Winds will go light and variable overnight Saturday and lows should be in the 40s for the most part. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Sunday we`ll be squeezed between a back door cold front from the large scale system over the Great Lakes and warm southwest flow coming out ahead of the system tracking over the southern NV area. Right now widespread 70s is expected with lower 80s in the southwest Panhandle. As we head into Monday the system is expected to track north of the Panhandles and leave us mostly dry with a more zonal and mild flow aloft. Current highs are still in the 70s for Monday, but may return to the low 80s in the southeast. Tuesday will be a little tricky as it looks like a backdoor cold front from an impulse connected to much colder air in the Great Lake region could lower highs to just slightly above normal, in the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday and Thursday are the current days to watch as another large scale low that tracked down the CA coast will move down toward the Baja, and help draw up both some Pacific and possibly Gulf moisture to the Panhandles. Cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances are expected with this system. Right now the more favorable day for rain looks to be on Thursday, but will not rule out showers in the east on Wednesday as well. Currently no significant cold air attached to this system and do not see any concerns for winter precipitation. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds mainly out of the north east in the 5-10kt range through about 18z. Thereafter winds in the 5-10kt range out of the south, then shifting more southwesterly toward the end of the TAF period. Mostly clear skies to few high clouds are expected during this time. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89