992
FXUS64 KAMA 181823
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
123 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances continue through
  Tuesday and potentially Wednesday for portions of the area.

- Near average temperatures are expected over the next 7 days for
  the Panhandles.

- After a break in the thunderstorm activity later this week,
  storm chances return this upcoming weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Satellite imagery hinting at an MCV-type feature over the central
part of the CWA at this hour which could help enhance convective
initiation over the eastern portion of the Panhandles. Still
should remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, however.
CAMs/NBM have reduced coverage in morning runs to the west of this
feature, which is consistent with this thinking. Main threat with
any storms today continues to be localized flash flooding, due to
slow storm motions and anomalously high atmospheric moisture
content, with WPC maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
pretty much the entire area. However, downburst winds of 40+ mph
cannot be ruled with any given storm, either. Also worth noting
that the HRRR keeps some convection going overnight in the
southwestern Panhandles area.

In the bigger picture, northerly component to flow aloft at H25
remains generally in place into Wednesday, with high pressure over
the Desert Southwest. A couple additional wrinkles come into play
for Tuesday, which have prompted SPC to paint a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms over extreme NE TX
Panhandle and Beaver County in OK. Damaging winds are expected to
the primary threat. A shortwave trough (evident in the GFS) is
forecast to rotate around the front side of the high in quasi-NW
flow aloft, locally increasing deep layer shear and lift.
Meanwhile, a modest surface back-door cold front is also forecast
to move through the CWA on Tuesday, though timing still a bit
uncertain (afternoon vs. more mid-evening timeframe). RRFS
develops a convective line along this feature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A drier atmospheric column filters in behind the aforementioned
short-wave late Tue night into Wednesday morning, as the H5 high
re-centers over the Four Corners area. Resulting NE flow aloft
not very conducive to moisture surges or disturbances aloft
entering the AMA CWA, with PoPs falling below mentionable numbers.
Four Corners ridging persists through at least Friday, with
larger-scale troughing over the eastern CONUS and models in good
agreement on this. Temps remain seasonally hot, generally in the
low-mid 90s F, or a touch above normal, for mid- August, with
Heat Risk remaining in the Minor category. Dewpoints drop into
the 50s F for Friday and Saturday, for a less humid feel as well.

Looking more at the weekend, modest NW flow aloft returns as the
upper reorients upstream. This would again open the door for
disturbances aloft to pass overhead. A wavy stationary front may
also be in the neighborhood at the same time, per WPC progs. as
such, PoPs gradually trend upward again Saturday through next
Monday (25 Aug).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Outside of a direct hit from a thunderstorm, VFR should prevail
at all three terminals through the next 24 hours, with relatively
high (70-80%) confidence. Although rain/thunder chances have
trended down a bit in latest NBM and LAV guidance, especially for
the western Panhandles, have retained PROB groups for thunder at
KAMA and KGUY but dropped at KDHT. Tweaked timing based on latest
HRRR and LAV guidance. A modest northerly wind shift is now
forecast after 06Z tonight, with medium confidence.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99