390
FXUS64 KAMA 242255
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

-Daily rain chances throughout the coming week, where some areas
 could see flooding concerns due to heavy rainfall rates and
 repeated round of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

We continue to watch the potential for flooding due to heavy
rainfall starting later this evening into the overnight hours.
Although hi-res CAM model data in the last 24-36 hours have not
been in great accord, latest trends over the last 3-6 hours have
represented well the current satellite obs. These current obs
shows thunderstorms forming over the top of the H500 high, centered
in the Four Corners vicinity. As the complex of developing multi-
cell and linear complex of storms move ESE through CO and KS,
along with a second area of convection developing over the NM high
terrain and moving east, these areas will provide rain chance
starting around just before sunset and continuing into the
overnight period. The potential for heavy rainfall with these
thunderstorms is likely as our PWAT values from our 18Z RAOB data
for AMA is 1.24", which shows plenty of moisture to work with for
these thunderstorms. Also noting a LLJ of 30 kts to increase
around 06Z Monday morning, which could help prolong thunderstorm
activity. This could also help support more robust updrafts that
can form in the 25-30 kts 0-6 km shear where some storms could be
severe with large hail and damaging winds. But the main threat
continues to be the flooding threat, especially during the
overnight period. Given the current orientation of the main
steering flow on the periphery of the high, the majority of the
precipitation should be confined to areas well north of I-40 in
the northern combined Panhandles. But we will watch trends
closely. As the main H500 high shifts further southeast tomorrow,
with a more WNW H500 flow, additional diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms will return to the Panhandles. Once again,
especially for areas that had received heavy rainfall the
previous night, flooding concerns will continue tomorrow as well.
High temperature tomorrow will feature a bit of a dichotomy due
to a stalled surface front. Highs will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s in the northeastern combined Panhandles to mid and
upper 80s in the SW TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

With a relatively active low amplitude sinusoidal pattern across
the northern CONUS, and a broad H500 high centered across the
Texas Hill Country, a series of nearly daily diurnal convection
should develop over the NM/CO high terrain and move through the
Panhandles during the evening and overnight hours. With ample
moisture advection into the Panhandles and heavy rainfall expected
to continue, we will continue to monitor for flooding potential.
A front will move south dropping temperatures to well below
average in the 60s/70s before rebounding back into the 80s for
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A weather system is causing rain showers and thunderstorms in the
panhandles for the next several days with a moderate to high
chance of impacting all the terminals. For this evening the rain
showers and thunderstorms have a low to moderate chance of
impacting all terminals with slightly better odds at KGUY compared
to KDHT and KAMA. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall that can reduce conditions to IFR or worse during
their passage. Further, while the chance are very low a few of the
storms may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Following the passage of this round of storms a calmer
period should setup for the mid to late morning hours of Monday.
There is a low chance that a low level MVFR cloud deck remains
behind in the northern panhandles impacting KGUY during this time.
A further round of rain showers and thunderstorms has a high
chance of forming for Monday evening with similar impacts to the
current storms. This is outside of the current TAF period so is
not reflected within the the TAFs for now.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98