249
FXUS64 KAMA 040516
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding tonight
  across the Panhandles.

- Low chances for rogue storms Thur and Fri afternoons, but better
  storm chances return to the Panhandles on Saturday.

- Warmer and drier conditions are trending more likely next week
  across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As storms continue to progress across the western and central
Panhandles, a risk for strong winds, small hail, and torrential
downpours will persist until they dissipate through the early
morning hours. Localized flooding potential will need to be
monitored for these locations in the meantime. Once the
environment becomes overworked and better lift exits the region,
storms should die off across our eastern counties this morning.

Latest trends point to much of Today being a recovery day for the
region after storms exit this morning. As highs rise into the mid
80s to low 90s, a subtle, weak disturbance may reach the Panhandles
by this afternoon-evening with potential to generate another round
of spotty showers and storms, but confidence in this occurring is
still relatively low and decreasing, as it is unlikely the
atmosphere can recover sufficiently (10-20% POPs across the far
southern TX Panhandle).

Friday has looked like our next opportunity for better precipitation,
but trends are looking more grim due to synoptic conditions becoming
less favorable. The upper trough responsible for our chances looks
to stay further south, blocking better moisture and energy from
pushing over the Panhandles. However, the southern TX Panhandle will
still be positioned close enough to an H700 low for some rogue
showers or storms across our southern counties in the afternoon and
overnight hours (20-30% POPs). Regardless, expect highs in the 80s
to mid 90s across the region.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Models have maintained the notion that the synoptic pattern will
favor active weather for the Panhandles on Saturday. Global
guidance depicts troughing lifting north-northeast over the High
Plains, maintaining appreciable moisture transport to the region
in tandem with large-scale lift. As any disturbances arrive to the
Panhandles, PWATs likely remain in the 90th percentile (>1"),
with ample low level moisture (50s and 60s dew points) and highs
in the 80s. These conditions should support 20-50% POPs primarily
across the south and eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles Saturday. As we`ve seen a lot lately, activity will
likely be scattered in nature rather than widespread, so some
locations could see heavy rain while others see nothing.

Going into next week, models now have increased agreement that an
"Omega Block" pattern sets up atop the plains, with upper level high
pressure settling in from the south Plains to the Midwest. Although
rogue opportunities for precipitation could materialize any given
day, this trend has only increased the likelihood of warmer and
drier conditions. Highs in the 90s will be more common each day
Sunday through Wednesday, with precipitation chances less than 15%.
Probabilities for highs greater than 100 degrees Monday through
Thursday have started to increase, now solidly in the 20-40% chance
range each day. Despite some of these days having breezier winds,
minor to moderate heat risk conditions will be in place for much of
the Panhandles each day. Looks like our first real heat wave of the
summer may be in store.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Storms are ongoing at KGUY and KAMA tonight, and will remain in
the area causing heavy rain, lightning, and erratic winds for the
first couple hours of the TAF period. After that, storms will
clear out and VFR sky conditions are expected the rest of the
period with south winds of 10-20 mph.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38