481
FXUS64 KAMA 031732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

-Watching for the chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm today.

-Triple digit temperatures possible later this week across many
 areas of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Latest 17Z observations shows a few light showers across the
south central and southwestern Texas Panhandle on the periphery of
the main H500 anti-cyclonic synoptic feature. Lots of
uncertainties in the forecast going later on today. Latest
03/12-15z high res model and numerical data shows a stout cap
over the region. This is in partial to some of the early morning
convection we had over the central and eastern Panhandles. In-
conjunction with more influence by the approaching high on large
scale UL subsidence, lift for thunderstorms today will have to
take place under a notable perturbation ridge roller and/or
originate over the high terrain on New Mexico and move into the
Panhandles region. With these factors in mind, this has resulted
in latest decrease in aerial coverage trends overall for
thunderstorms today across the Panhandles. Not a high chance, but
if thunderstorms can develop, they do pose a good chance of
becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threat. Thunderstorms that do form should quickly move SSE before
the last of them clear out of the Panhandles around midnight. The
H500 high over NM continues to build to the NNE throughout
tomorrow with less than 10% of a shower or storm tomorrow
afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Hot and dry conditions continue to dominate the long term
forecast period. Large scale subsidence from the high pressure
system and pronounced LL H850 WAA will aid in well above average
temperatures for early August. High temperatures by mid to late
week may reach 100-105 degrees in many locations across the
Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA/KGUY with MVFR
conditions at KDHT. We could see TSRA today at all TAF sites, but
not high enough confidence to include in the TAF at this time.
VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites between 21-00Z
Monday. Winds will be variable at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29