633
FXUS64 KAMA 190600
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Thunderstorms will remain possible for this afternoon through
  tonight across the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will
  be possible with any storms.

- After a brief break in the rain chances, daily chances for
  storms looks to return this weekend into early next week.

- A pattern change early next week may lead to below average
  temperatures along with continued chances for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The well advertised high pressure will remain nearly stationary
over the Rockies during the short term forecast period. Weather
conditions for today will be very similar to what they have been
the last few days given the lack of change in the synoptic
pattern. Warm afternoon highs in the 90s are likely for today with
storm chances this afternoon through tonight. High moisture
content (PWAT values continuing to be around the 90th percentile)
is expected to remain in place so locally moderate to heavy rain
with rain rates upwards of 2-3 inches per hour. These rain rates
have been observed the last few days and with those rates possible
once again today, localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
Gusty downburst winds associated with the stronger cores may also
occur along with strong winds from outflow winds. The main change
for today will be the potential for a back door cold front moving
from northeast to southwest over the Southern Plains tonight.
Model guidance has been very inconsistent with the timing of the
frontal passage along with the potential for showers or storms to
form along the front as it treks south and southwest. Given the
potential for numerous outflow boundaries to be in place while the
front is coming through and plenty of moisture still over the
region, am leaning a bit more aggressive with the PoPs compared to
the NBM for the late evening into the overnight hours.

The weak front should be well south of the Panhandles during the
daytime on Wednesday and easterly surface winds are forecast in
its wake. Temperatures for Wednesday only look to be a few degrees
cooler than today even though we will be behind the front. Even
though some of the 19/00z hi-res guidance is suggesting a few
diurnally driven pop-up showers or storms are possible on
Wednesday afternoon, am not confident in any storms forming as the
better mid level moisture to the west and south of the forecast
area. With that being said, have kept PoPs below mentionable in
the forecast for now. Dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with lows dropping into the 60s for
the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The center of a H300 high pressure system looks to remain situated
over the Four Corners region through at least the first half of this
upcoming weekend. The eastern extent of the broad scale ridging is
forecast to be near the Central Plains, this leaves the
Panhandles underneath northeasterly flow aloft late this work
week. This pattern is not the most conducive for shower or
thunderstorm development so dry conditions are likely on Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures during this time frame should remain
right around to perhaps a few degrees above average in the low to
mid 90s.

Global model guidance continues to feature a large pattern change
from this weekend into next week. The ridge across the western CONUS
is expected to become suppressed by a broad scale trough with the
low pressure center near the southern tip of the Hudson Bay in
Ontario. The trough is expected to dig south across much of the
central and northeastern US into early next week. With the ridge
being suppressed to the Desert Southwest, northwest flow is looking
more and more likely to set-up over the southern High Plains by late
this weekend. This would open up the potential for daily chances for
showers and storms with mid level moisture increasing across the
area. This could start as early as Saturday night, but most guidance
holds off on that potential until Sunday night. In addition to the
increased rain chances, the troughing pattern should usher in a
cooler air mass over much of the central and eastern parts of the
country, which may include portions of the Panhandles. Model
guidance varies tremendously this far out, but there are signs
pointing to at least portions of the Panhandles seeing the first
Fall-like cold front of the season next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for most of this TAF cycle. Isolated
showers and storms are possible over the next few hours, will
address with amendments if they look to impact the terminals.
Additional chances for storms are likely late in this 24 hour
period. Have included PROB30 groups to account for that potential
at KDHT and KAMA. Outside of any storms, winds will remain light
around 10 kts or less with some mid to high clouds over the
region.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05