Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
464 FXUS64 KAMA 291132 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 632 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 - Rain chances remain for tonight through Friday night, but trends have been towards lower rain amounts across the combined Panhandles. - Temperatures this weekend are expected to be much cooler with highs in the 50s and potentially even the 40s. - Frost or Freeze Warnings may be needed Saturday morning in the northwest combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 WSW flow aloft is carrying mid to upper level moisture from the Pacific Ocean into southern AZ and southern NM. A mid to upper level low is currently over CA/NV. With this current upper level pattern rain chances are looking a bit over done by the NBM for tonight into Thu. Troughing over the Four Corners Region will continue to evolve with a cutoff low coming in from the Pacific over southern CA and the Baja Peninsula. It is not until this low merges with the main flow going into Friday that rain chances may actually start to increase favoring the southwestern combined Panhandles. With minimal CAPE and questionable moisture, activity is expected to stay mostly showers, with maybe a few rumbles of thunder over the next few days. For now, will be looking at pulling back on PoPs, especially for tonight into Thursday. With the break down of high pressure aloft, temperatures are expected to be on the decline today into the weekend. Starting with highs progged to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. Thursday, even cooler H85 temperatures and cloud cover will fill into the area bringing afternoon temperatures down into 60s across the Panhandles for Thursday afternoon. Southeast to east surface winds today and tomorrow will help keep Tds in at least the 30s to 40s. That with cooler temperatures fire weather conditions are finally expected to take a break. Especially with winds remaining on the lighter side today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Friday into Saturday is looking to be the wettest period. However, there are still signals for this weekend system to shift the better moisture south of the FA. Still favoring some of the western counties in the combined Panhandle while also favoring the far southern counties in the Texas Panhandle. All in all, this may very well be a high PoP low QPF type system with mainly light showers expected and only a rumble of thunder here and there. Thanks to the increase cloud cover and moisture, afternoon temperature are progged to be much cooler than recently experienced thus far this month. In fact morning lows Saturday may be near freezing in the northwest Panhandles. Frost or freeze warning may be needed. Sunday, upper level ridging builds in with mostly clear skies helping temperatures rebound to the upper 70s into 80s, both on Sunday and Monday. A bit out there but a ridge rider may bring some precip chances to the far northern combined Panhandles Mon night and again Tue night. Currently sitting with 20 PoPs across the north with maybe some 30 PoPs bordering CO/KS. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the east-southeast at 5-15 kts throughout the period. Some showers may move in across the north towards the end of the period, but confidence in timing of precip is too low to include mentions in the TAFs at this time. PROB30 groups may be needed in future issuances. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...38