566
FXUS64 KAMA 151840
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
140 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Slightly cooler temperatures expected to end the work week with
  afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday night
  in to Friday afternoon for the Southeastern Texas Panhandles.

- Warming trend returns this weekend with potential to see triple
  digit temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper-level high pressure continues to hold well northeast of the
Panhandles this afternoon with most models expecting it to start
its decent southeast. Meanwhile to our south, models are getting a
bit more clarity on a weak low forming over Western Texas. Under
this pattern, most models and observations today have seen the
Panhandles under a more southeasterly flow at the surface. In most
cases southeasterly flow generally leads to more moisture being
pushed into the area from the gulf and better chances for showers
or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. However, a look
at the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere show that there is
still quite a bit of dry air still present that is keeping us from
using this moisture today. As it stands, the present conditions
would need a decent lifting mechanism beyond convective heating to
bust through the present cap and start storms. Unfortunately,
this same weather pattern has also been inhibiting any such
lifting mechanism from entering the Panhandles, with our current
best bet being a rouge outflow boundary moving in from the far
south. Given all that is stacked against us, chances of storms is
expected be less than 10 percent for today.

Moving into Thursday, most CAMS see similar problems for storm
chances that afternoon as we see today. However, as we head into
the overnight period and Friday, most CAMS do see the low start
to shift further northwest as the high starts to settle in the
Southeastern United States. This movement will help amplify our
flow at the surface and in turn see a strong push of moisture into
the Panhandles. As it stands, CAMS are seeing most of the
Panhandles PWATS rise above 1.5 inches with the far southeast
upwards of 1.75 to 1.9 inches by Friday afternoon. With PWAT
values this high, any storm that does develop would pose the risk
of producing very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized
flooding. However, we would still need a method of dealing with
the cap as most models dont see the mid to upper-level dry air
moving out any time soon. Thankfully, most CAMS do see a little
northerly push also accompanying the low, which could be enough to
see the Southeast Texas Panhandles see storms early Friday
morning into that afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures look to
decrease further with this influx of moisture with afternoon high
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s for both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper-level pattern does look like it will begin to shift once
again as we head into the weekend and next week. Currently present
model agreement see the weak upper-level low break down in favor
of a much stronger ridge and high pressure system. This ridge will
make quick work of any present moisture over the Panhandles with
chances of showers dropping below 10 percent by Saturday with
Sunday and the rest of the week fairing no better. This high
pressure will also see temperatures begin to warm with most of the
Panhandles back in the low to mid 90s this weekend. Unfortunately
this trend will continue into next week with afternoon high
temperatures once again threatening to reach the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

While moisture at the surface continues to funnel in from our
southeast, present observations and models continue to see a very
dry pocket of air holding at the mid to upper-level of the
atmosphere. This pocket will see storms struggle to develop once
again this afternoon with most terminals only seeing few to
scatter cloud decks this evening. There are concerns that this
excess moisture can eventually lead to low overcast cloud decks
and possibly fog building during the early morning hours of
Thursday, but confidence is not high enough to make mention of it
in the present TAF package. Otherwise, expect all terminals to
remain VFR for the period.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11