Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
201 FXUS64 KAMA 172328 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 - Off and on showers with embedded thunderstorms remain possible this evening and Saturday. - Warmer temperatures return next week with afternoon threatening to have widespread triple-digit temperatures by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Present radar as well as satellite imagery are still seeing remnants of the surface low push its way northwest towards the Panhandles, which has force decent moisture advection into our south. This moisture has lead to a few off and on showers this morning, but the present dry air and subsidence aloft have done a good job of keeping activity to its bear minimum for today. This pattern of off and showers with an occasional embedded thunderstorm is likely to hold through the afternoon most with CAMs seeing the low trek further north as it breaks down. At this time exceptions of any severe weather are very low thanks to the lack of wind shear and CAPE values only maxing out around 1200 J/kg. However, the present moisture advection has seen the Southern and Eastern Texas Panhandles quite saturated with multiple CAMs suggesting PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75 inches present. With values like this around, it would be possible for even a small shower to produce heavy rainfall, which by itself would only be beneficial to our area. However, should a shower manage to sit or train over an area long enough, then some minor localized flooding could become an issue. Otherwise, similar conditions do look to follow Saturday as most CAMs see the low hold itself together for a little bit longer before high pressure once again takes over for the Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 The present models trends do look to see the upper-level pattern to shift once again this weekend and next week. Currently present model agreement sees the weak upper-level low break down in favor of a much stronger ridge and high pressure system settling just to our north across Colorado and Kansas. This ridge will make quick work of any present moisture over the Panhandles with chances of showers dropping below 10 percent for Sunday and Monday. However by Tuesday, models do see a slight shift in the high that could lead to some northwesterly upper-level flow over the Panhandles. Should this trend continue then it is possible that we could see showers across the Western Panhandles that evening thanks to mountain based storms having enough motions to move off the Southern Front Range. Otherwise, the Panhandles will also see temperatures begin to warm under this returning high pressure with most locations back in the low to mid 90s By Sunday. Unfortunately this trend will continue into next week as afternoon high temperatures once again threaten to reach the triple digits by Wednesday, with some of our hotter locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon, potentially needing heat related products. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 VFR sky conditions are expected to dominate the forecast over the next 24 hrs. A few spotty showers and storms are lingering this evening, but are small and short lived with very little lightning and not much wind/hail. Tomorrow afternoon-evening will have better storm potential across the Panhandles, but confidence is too low to include mentions in the TAFs at this time. Winds will swing out of the south-southeast at 5-15 kts. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...38