Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
587 FXUS64 KAMA 182306 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 506 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 -A potential for a wetting rain and cooler temperatures will arrive with a low pressure system set to impact the Panhandles starting Wed night into Thu. A low chance for some localized flooding will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 An upper level closed low can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery currently. The FA is currently under an area of flow that is transitioning from the southwest to quasi-zonal under and upper level ridge. Under this ridge expecting above average temperatures today and tomorrow with relatively light winds until this aforementioned low pressure system arrives over AZ/NM and pumps moisture into the area for rain showers on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 By Wed night an upper level low pressure system sitting over CA into the Pacific is progged to be near the southern tip of NV, and CA/AZ. By this time another low pressure system is progged to be getting spun up off the coast of the PacNW. By Thu this secondary system will have moved south over the Bay Area of CA and have joined the first low in the same broad parent trough. The FA is set to be under the eastern periphery of this parent trough with increasing atmospheric moisture. Moisture should begin to increase tomorrow with the main dynamics and moisture showing up for Thu. PoPs get introduced to the far southeastern TX Panhandle Wed night, with PoPs increasing well into the 70 to 90 range across much of the FA from sunrise to sunset on Thursday. Confidence has been continuing to increase for the prospects of rain with this system as models continue to come in line. The main lifting mechanism, for the main show on Thursday, appears to be the left exit region of an H5 jet. Not all models show a significant source of instability, therefore, thunder appears to be limit but not zero. One exception for instability is the NAM. If the NAM is correct, would not rule out some severe storms. Will have to continue to monitor trends, but the better chances for severe storms will be to the east and south of the combined Panhandles. With the current set up, there are some decent probabilities for receiving 1" of rain Thu into early Fri. Those probabilities being 30 to 60 percent chance across the eastern two thirds of TX Panhandle with a 10 to 30 percent chance elsewhere in the FA. Cooler temperatures are expected for Thu thanks to the rain. But for Friday and Saturday near normal temperatures are expected thanks to a cold front on Friday. For Sunday, slight chance to chance PoPs are looking to return as the secondary low previously mention shows up with more moisture and lift. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Increasing moisture will see ever increasing amounts of cloud cover. These cloud decks will be descending from high level to mid level during the morning and afternoon hours of Wednesday. Overnight a low level winds will be weak with increasing strength within 1 to 2 thousand feet. While all stations will have this only KDHT has this increase of strength be strong enough to count as LLWS and be included within the TAF. There is a very low chance for rain showers in the SE TX panhandles for the late morning through afternoon hours of Wednesday. The chances of these occurring at KAMA are not high enough to be reflected within the TAF. A much more impactful weather system impacts all terminals come Thursday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...98