614
FXUS64 KAMA 221642
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of the
Panhandles on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Damaging winds and
large hail look to be the primary threats.

- Thunderstorms, perhaps some strong to severe, will be possible
  each day for the rest of the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Westerly flow with a dryline setup today. We can expect that
increased moisture to the east of the dryline as well as daytime
heating will favor a fairly uncapped environment to get some
isolated to scattered storms to develop. Latest guidance is
suggesting that convection will initiate just east of the Amarillo
to Guymon line, so Amarillo may not see anything today. Despite
the dryline setup today, if convection is surface based in the
central Panhandles this afternoon, only 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE
anticipated. Now as we move further east and to the southeast
Panhandles, some late evening and overnight low level moisture
will advect some decent low level moisture and could support some
elevated convection with higher CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
0-3 SRH isn`t bad with values over 300 m2/s2, but overall mid
level shear profile isn`t the greatest. Despite an uncapped
sounding models are struggling to convect overnight tonight, and
it may be due to lack of time for the atmosphere to recover.
Overall, todays severe parameters look to be around 1.50" hail and
wind up to 70 mph. The threat for a tornado would be very low.

Overnight tonight will be tricky as we await another round on
Wednesday similar to what we expect today, only there`s better
moisture available and therefore, it looks like much better
chances for widespread storms. There is one thing we need to keep
an eye on and that`s if an MCS forms along a cold front up in KS.
There were some previous models have the MCS setup in southern KS
and has it release a cold pool into the eastern Panhandles which
would pose an issue for further convection on Wednesday afternoon
in the eastern Panhandles. The dryline on Wednesday is expected to
be further west and given the increased low level moisture, more
scattered to widespread storms are expected along the dryline on
Wednesday, just how much of them will hold together as they move
east toward the cooler capped airmass is in question. Again, this
assumes that the MCS solution pans out. There is the chance that
no MCS occurs and we`ll just get standard dryline storms that will
track east through the evening and provide a chance for severe
weather to most areas. Severe parameters for Wednesday will be on
the same level as today, mainly as we`re unsure of how the storms
will play out, but if the non MCS solution pans out, we can
certainly look at raising those threats.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Thursday through Monday will continue the active weather pattern
of daily chances of showers and storms, and that includes the
severe threat. Overall flow will transition to a more southwest
flow and the dryline is expected to set up near the Amarillo to
Guymon line or as far west as the TX/NM state line each day. With
daily dryline convection expected to develop and provide chances
at strong to severe storms. Would like to focus a little bit on
Thursday, as a cold front may interact with the dryline convection
and that would support a bit more instability, as well as a
potential triple point for an increased tornado threat. The main
issue with multiple days of convection is, the unknown of previous
day convection and residual boundaries, or just how much the
environment is worked over, so will not get too detailed on the
extended. Will note that temperatures should be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s most days, with Friday and Saturday being the cooler days
given the cold front.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of this forecast period.
Thunderstorms will possibly develop in the vicinity of KAMA
around mid-afternoon; have therefore included a PROB30 group to
account for that. Strong downdraft winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm that develops today. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are
expected to move in to KAMA Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  78  55  82 /  10  40  50  60
Beaver OK                  50  79  53  80 /  20  60  70  80
Boise City OK              46  79  50  79 /  10  40  40  40
Borger TX                  53  82  56  86 /  10  50  50  60
Boys Ranch TX              51  81  55  85 /  10  30  50  50
Canyon TX                  51  78  55  83 /  10  40  50  50
Clarendon TX               53  77  56  79 /  50  50  60  70
Dalhart TX                 46  80  50  81 /   0  30  40  40
Guymon OK                  48  80  52  80 /  10  60  50  60
Hereford TX                51  80  54  83 /  10  40  50  40
Lipscomb TX                53  77  55  80 /  30  60  60  80
Pampa TX                   53  77  56  80 /  20  60  60  70
Shamrock TX                54  77  56  79 /  40  60  70  80
Wellington TX              55  78  57  78 /  50  60  70  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52