401
FXUS64 KAMA 231705
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1105 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Quiet weather with above average temperatures expected. The
exception being Wed, where near average temperatures are expected
behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A weak mid to upper level low pressure system is traversing the
Lubbock to Midland area at this time. Over the Panhandle parts of
the associated upper level trough. This system is not expected to
produce any precipitation for today. Most of the cloud cover is
seen with the main low pressure down south. However, a weak
surface front will bring in some northerly winds today and may
suppress daytime highs a bit. H85 temperatures are still progged
to increase to around 8 to 11 degrees C this afternoon with
daytime highs progged to be in the 60s across the combined
Panhandles.

Overnight temperatures remain somewhat mild compared to previous
nights. H85 temperatures remain warm and winds return to the south
and pick up to around 10 to 15 mph, helping to mix the warmer
temperatures and reduce radiational cooling. For those areas that
do see some slightly higher winds in this 10 to 15 range,
temperatures should stay in the low to mid 30s as opposed to
dropping into the mid to upper 20s.

Tomorrow, a leeside low is progged to develop over eastern NM.
Depending on how this low sets up, will determine how warm
temperatures get on Mon afternoon. If it can stay further north
and closer to the Panhandles, winds should remain westerly giving
down sloping and warming winds. However, some model guidance is
giving a further south solution to the low with the Panhandles
seeing some northerly winds in the afternoon which are more
upsloping and cooling. With clear skies expecting highs mainly to
be in the 70s across the FA. Amarillo could have a afternoon
temperatures as low as 68 (10% chance lower than this) or a high
of as 77 (10% chance higher than this). Overall there is some
slight variability in the outcome of afternoon highs on Monday
which may play a roll in the overnight lows going into Tue
morning. For now have the NBM values in for the low Monday night
with temps in the upper 30s across the southeastern TX Panhandle,
with lower 30s in the northwestern combined Panhandles.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

H85 temperatures are progged to warm quite a bit to around 17 to
18 degrees C. Have blended the max T towards the NBM50 slightly
which takes the high a couple to three degrees warmer at this
time. NBM probs give a small probability around 10 to 30 percent
chance that PDC could even hit 80 degrees Tue afternoon. This warm
up is progged to get reversed by a cold front on Wed with highs in
the 50s to lower 60s. But by Friday the combined Panhandles are
looking at seeing some 70s once again.

Tue afternoon the FA is progged to fall under zonal flow aloft
prior to a highly positively tilted mid to upper level trough that
will make way for the cold front on Wed. Moisture appears to be
absent with this system as comes across with no PoPs in the
forecast. The rest of the forecast is dry as well with the return
of some upper level riding warming temperatures back into the low
70s Friday afternoon. The only prospects for precipitation lay out
past Day 7 at this time and is still not a guarantee, especially
for Amarillo and the western TX Panhandle may get dry slotted with
the potential system in the future.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals and across the
panhandles for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                33  73  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  30  72  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              31  70  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  33  75  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              29  74  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  31  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               33  74  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 26  72  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  29  71  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                30  74  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                33  72  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   34  73  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                31  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              31  73  36  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98