543
FXUS64 KAMA 131111
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

- Thunderstorms are possible today through tonight with heavy rain
  that could lead to localized flash flooding. Additionally, a
  storm or two may become severe with large hail being the primary
  hazard.

- At least low chances for thunderstorms continues through mid
  week for portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

An H300 trough is currently over Nevada and extending over the
Desert Southwest early this morning. A disturbance on the
southeastern side of the trough is developing showers and storms
across Arizona and New Mexico early this morning. As this feature
moves towards the Panhandles, some showers and storms may start to
move in across the west by sunrise this morning. With multiple
disturbances moving across the area today as the trough gets
closer to the region, off and on chances for showers and storms
will be possible throughout the entire day. The higher chances
will remain across the west until this evening when the trough
moves over the southern Rockies. With persistent cloud cover and
chances for showers/storms, the western Panhandles will likely
stay in the 70s for today whereas the east may reach the upper 80s
to low 90s.

Moderate to at times heavy rainfall is possible with any
thunderstorms this afternoon through the overnight hours. Forecast
PWAT values are around 1-1.5 inches across the Panhandles and there
is the possibility that a band of showers/storms may set up
somewhere over the area that could lead to isolated flooding
concerns. Just where and if that sets up is the big question, if
there are not training storms or storms that are slow moving, the
flash flood threat will very likely be isolated at best. As is the
case any time there is the potential for flooding in this region,
urban areas are more at risk and the flooding could happen at night
so be sure to take precautions if driving through heavy rain
tonight. Additionally, there is a low end potential for a severe
storm or two, but confidence in that scenario is rather low given
long skinny CAPE profiles as depicted by forecast soundings with not
the best shear available. Even with that being said, if an updraft
can become robust enough marginally severe hail will be possible
given the cold mid level temperatures.

On Sunday the low pressure system that aided in bringing rain to the
Panhandles will begin to lift northeast towards the Central Plains.
Most of the rain should be done by sunrise on Sunday morning, but
there could be some lingering showers or storms across the far east
at that time. Depending on the evolution of the upper level system,
cannot rule out at least low end rain chances on Sunday afternoon
across the east, but those chances will highly depend upon where the
trough is at that point. Outside of that low end chance for rain,
most of the area should remain on the dry side for Sunday with cloud
cover clearing from west to east and highs reaching the low to mid
80s.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

A messy upper level pattern appears to be in place to start the next
work week, with high pressure center near the Great Lakes region,
low pressure over the Carolinas, and another low pressure system
over the northern Rockies. For Monday, cannot rule out a few showers
or storms across the south as just in time mid level moisture
progresses northward, but chances right now are below 15 percent.
Rain chances for the Panhandles will begin to increase on Tuesday
into Wednesday as the H500 trough digs south and east towards the
southern High Plains. Right now the northern Panhandles have the
better rain chances during these days but that can easily change
depending upon the track of the system as it comes across. By late
week, ridging may start to set-up across much of the Plains, but
there is quite a bit of model variability due to all of the synoptic
features in play next week so details beyond mid week are up in the
air at this point. Temperatures during the next work week look to
remain consistently in the 80s.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through about 18Z, then thunderstorm
chances begin to increase with the threat of VFR dropping to MVFR
potentially IFR with heavy thunderstorms. There is a low chance
for showers maybe even thunder to impact KDHT or KAMA before 18Z.
Confidence increases for thunderstorms and less than favorable
conditions starting around 00Z. Activity will continue to move
east across the Panhandles with low clouds potentially impacting
the terminals after this expected system caries rain chances east
of the terminals. Expect potential amendments to the TAFs during
this period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...36