137
FXUS64 KAMA 050523
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

- Dry conditions along with above average high temperatures will
  continue through next week.

- Record breaking high temperatures are forecast for Saturday
  afternoon for portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

H500 high pressure with broad ridging remains in place over much
of the central CONUS this afternoon. Closer to the surface, winds
that were out of the north from a frontal passage this morning,
are now starting to turn to out of the south for some locations.
That trend should continue with all of the Panhandles having weak
southerly winds by late afternoon. The somewhat cooler air mass
remains over the region for today which is leading to highs a bit
cooler than the past few days. For tomorrow, low pressure develops
over southeastern CO which tightens the surface pressure gradient
over the Panhandles and will lead to breezy southwest winds during
the daytime hours. Strong WAA for this time of year is forecast
with H850 temperatures rising once again into the mid to upper 20s
Celsius by the afternoon hours. The warmer low level temperatures
along with the downsloping winds will increase highs to near or
just above record levels tomorrow. Widespread temperatures in the
90s are currently forecast given the above scenario. Another weak
cold front looks to begin to enter the northern Panhandles late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning with some breezy winds
out of the north in its wake.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Weak troughing at H300 is forecast to move across the Panhandles
early on Sunday. This feature will usher in a cold front from the
north, which should already be moving across the CWA by sunrise on
Sunday. The front may make it through the entire Panhandles before
mixing out by the afternoon or early evening hours on Sunday.
Model guidance deviates on how far south to take the front or how
quickly winds become southerly once again, so have stuck with NBM
high temperatures for now, which brings a subtle cooldown into the
70s for the northwest and keeps all other areas in the 80s to low
90s. Monday through the rest of next work week, high pressure
builds in again from the Desert Southwest to the Southern High
Plains. The center of high pressure looks to remain further west
this time around which will still keep daytime high temperatures
well above average, but they may not be as hot as this past week.
This synoptic pattern continues to favor dry conditions going into
late next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue through the overnight with all
terminals seeing VFR conditions. Surface winds are expected to
pick up ahead of the front early Saturday morning with potential
to see gust nearing the 25 kt mark. These winds will slow once the
front moves out with KAMA seeing it slower speeds sometime in the
late evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  96  54  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              93  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  97  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              94  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  91  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               91  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 90  50  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  94  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                91  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                95  57  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   93  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                94  57  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              94  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11