712
FXUS64 KAMA 102326
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New UPDATE, KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Another nice evening and night are in store for the Panhandles!
Light winds are forecast for tonight and with clear skies will
lead to lows mainly in the 40s, but would not be surprised to see
some areas in the 30s across the north. Have decreased lows a few
degrees, which resulted in temps a few degrees cooler than they
were last night given a cooler air mass is in place across the
High Plains.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Above average temperatures expected to continue, especially this
  coming weekend where the entire area will likely see highs in
  the 90s.

- Elevated to critical fire weather may be present Saturday
  afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Today and Friday will have high pressure remaining across the
southern plains. This will continue the dry and fair weather in
the panhandles through the rest of Friday. Under this ridge the
temperatures will be warm with the highs remaining in the 70s to
even 80s across the panhandles.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This weekend has a high chance of a trough moving across the
northern to central plains while a different trough deepens SW off
the California coast. The interaction of these two separate
trough will be what creates a westerly flow across the southern
rockies. This will setup the formation of a leeside trough east of
the rockies leading to an increasing pressure and thermal
gradient across the panhandles. These will be the drivers for the
gusty winds across the panhandles for both Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday the winds will be more from the SW which will drive in
warmer and drier air that will then be further warmed and dried
via adiabatic compression. This will have a high chance of driving
the temperatures into the 90s across the panhandles with a low
chance for the hottest areas to touch 100. Sunday the winds shift
to a westerly flow and will more likely than not be a little
weaker. This will still cause similar impacts of hot and dry
conditions with similar temperatures compared to Saturday. Since
both days are hot and dry with gusty winds elevated to critical
fire conditions has a high chance of occurring across large
swaths of the panhandles. The big question to the fire weather
threat is just how green the vegetation will be for the weekend.
For greener and more water laden vegetation is less likely to be
available to burn even with the elevated to critical fire weather
conditions.

On Monday there is a moderate chance that the cold front
associated with the north to central plains trough passes through
the panhandles. This will bring a sharp drop in the temperatures
as cooler air passes in to the panhandles leaving the highs in
the 60s to 70s.

Tuesday there is a moderate chance of high pressure rebuilding
over the panhandles leading to another increase in temperatures.

For the rest of the week there is a low to moderate chance that a
little gulf moisture will be moved into the panhandles. This would
open the door for at least a low chance for precipitation in the
panhandles.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conditions are likely with this TAF cycle. Light winds are
forecast overnight with a southerly component. Winds will increase
after sunrise out of the south with occasional gusts over 20 kts
at all sites. Mostly clear skies are expected at each terminal.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                46  79  50  93 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  39  79  50  95 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              40  79  49  94 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  46  82  52  98 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  81  50  96 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  45  79  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               47  77  49  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 41  80  46  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  39  80  49  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                44  79  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  78  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   46  78  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                46  77  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              46  77  48  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05