959
FXUS64 KAMA 212249
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- There is a daily 10-30% chance for thunderstorms from the late
afternoon to evening hours from today through Thursday across
portions of the Panhandles. Moderate to heavy rain and strong wind
gusts may accompany any thunderstorm.

- Impactful heat is expected late this week and into early next
week, with temperatures returning to the mid-90s to low-100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

As of mid-morning, a TUTT is easily visible over south-central Texas
as it slowly moves northwest. Temperatures will soar today into the
mid to upper-90s with the eastern and northeastern combined
Panhandles having the best chance to top the 100 degree mark. As the
TUTT approaches this afternoon and temperatures reach the convective
temperature, will be looking for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the central Panhandles. Forecast
soundings in the vicinity show a robust inverted-V signature with
DCAPE values between 1500-1700 J/kg and very weak wind shear,
indicating the potential for outflow dominant pulse storms with
strong wind gusts up to 55 mph. Won`t entirely be able to rule out a
wind gust up to 60 mph with a strong enough updraft, but with weak
instability expected, confidence in that is very low (<5%).

Tuesday, there`s some relatively minor disagreements among guidance
regarding the location of the TUTT, but generally there is agreement
that it`ll be somewhere in west-central Texas. Highs will generally
remain warmer than normal across the Panhandles with the eastern and
northeastern combined Panhandles warming into the upper-90s. There`s
around a 10-25% chance for some showers and thunderstorms to work in
from the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico Tuesday evening,
and again, strong gusts may accompany this activity due to high
DCAPE values.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The TUTT mentioned in the short-term AFD will begin to move more
quicker off to the north on Wednesday as the system becomes more of
a typical shortwave trough with more distinguishable features lower
into the troposphere. Temperatures will still warm to near-normal or
warmer than normal across the Panhandles, but showers and
thunderstorms could start developing in the afternoon hours across
the southern and eastern Panhandles. Although DCAPE values won`t be
as high as previous days, instability is forecast to be at least
slightly greater which could still support strong wind gusts with
any thunderstorm.

A surface low will move off to the east on Thursday and a very weak
cold front cold front/surface trough may work into the northern
Panhandles Thursday afternoon. This could be a mechanism to get
thunderstorms to develop across the northern combined Panhandles
late Thursday afternoon and into a portion of the evening.

Friday and beyond, a potentially robust upper-level ridge is favored
to develop over the Great Plains which will warm re-introduce high
temperatures in the mid-90s to low-100s through the weekend and into
early next week.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Thunderstorms continue to impact parts of the OK/TX Panhandles
along a line extending northeast from Amarillo into the eastern OK
Panhandle into parts of KS. Thunderstorms may still be impacting
KAMA at the start of this 00Z Tue TAF period. However, storms
should become less of an issue, at least through the end of this
24 hour period. KDHT and KGUY have very low chances to see
thunderstorms early in this period, but may return in the latter
part towards 00Z Wed. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36