Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
690 FXUS64 KAMA 110516 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 - 100+ degree temperatures return to the Panhandles this Friday and through the weekend, with the highest confidence in the southeast. - A pattern shift early next work week has the potential bring much needed rain and breaks in temperatures to portions of the Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Today a broad flat ridge builds into the southern plains with the panhandles being on the northern edges of this high pressure system. This will set up a broadly west to east flow aloft across the region that will persist through Saturday. For today the high pressure will bring stable and drier conditions across the panhandles leading to a fair weather day. The surface winds will shift to the south to southwest bringing in warmer air into the area. The combination of the warm air advection and the subsidence heating of the high pressure system will see the temperatures spike up. This will see the highs increase into the 90s to low 100s which is well above normal. Saturday will see the high pressure more dominant across the southeastern portions of the panhandles. This will see a slight increase in the temperatures for the south half of the Texas panhandles. The hottest areas such as Palo Duro Canyon can breach 105 leading to an increased concern for heat illness and impacts. This may necessitate a Heat Advisory in the future. Towards the later portions of Saturday a small weather system passing through the upper west to east flow will move across the panhandles. This will bring a very low chance to flair off some late afternoon to evening rain showers and thunderstorms. The big item holding back storm chances will be the limited amount of moisture across the panhandles. Even if a storm did manage to form it would not result in much if any meaningful rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Sunday the pattern continues to shift as a large scale weather system deepens over western CONUS. Still, the high pressure system will remain the main weather feature across the southern plains. The interaction between the two system will most likely lead to an increase in the pressure gradient. This in turn will cause the winds to increase across the panhandles on Sunday. With the generally hot and dry conditions of the high pressure system the increase in the winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions back to the panhandles. Towards the later portions of Sunday a small weather system can brush the western panhandles bringing a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will be a limiting factor so even if a storm manages to form it will not lead to much if any meaningful rainfall. The large scale weather system pushes into the southern panhandles starting next work week. This will bring a shift in the weather pattern with a more southwesterly flow setting up across the southern plains. This flow will draw in moisture into the panhandles while the passage of the weather system will bring instability and dynamics. This opens the panhandles up to a medium chance for rain showers and thunderstorms each day of next work week. This will allow the panhandles to have a shot at meaningful rainfall for all of next work week. Still, since the most likely mode of rainfall will be showers there will be winners and loser when it comes to how much rain occurs for any given spot. Another benefit of this more active period of weather is that the temperatures will most likely cool off. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. The winds will be southerly to southwesterly and breezy for the afternoon hours. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98