887
FXUS64 KAMA 121050
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
550 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

-High temperatures will be very warm with widespread highs in the
 90s with a few locations at or above 100 degrees.

-About a 10-15% chance of a thunderstorm each day for the
 Panhandles, and cannot completely rule out strong wind gust from
 any robust thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Heat and more heat will continue for the next several days,
including within the short term forecast period. As the main H500
ridge and its axis builds north-northwest into the intermountain
west, strong LL H850 WAA will enter the Panhandles with diurnal
heating. Depending on the exact placement of the main H500 ridge
axis sets up for the short term forecast period, especially by
Wednesday as the main ridge slowly moves east and slowly begins
to dissipate, we could see some diurnally driven thunderstorms by
Wednesday afternoon. With DCAPE above 1500 J/Kg with defined
inverted-v soundings by Wednesday afternoon and with very warm
temperatures, could be enough to break the cap and produce a
storm or two with damaging winds being the main potential hazard
if storms reach severe criteria. Chances are not too high, but a
10-20 POP could suffice for these chances. High temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the lower 90s to a few
locations reaching the 100-103 degree range for portions of the TX
Panhandle, including PDC.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Temperatures well above average for mid May is expected to continue
to continue throughout the long term forecast period. As the main
H500 ridge breaks down over the central Plains, SW H500 flow will
return and could displace perturbations from the low amplitude
sinusoidal wave pattern from the central Rockies into the Plains.
With continued very warm temperatures, diurnally driven
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out from mid week into the coming
weekend. Not looking widespread at this time, but ~20% chance each
day to suffice the daily threats with established inverted-v
soundings showing some strong winds at times wit the most robust
storms. Especially alter in the week into the weekend, latest
guidance shows the potential for more robust disturbances moving
through the plains aiding lift to increase probabilities of seeing
thunderstorm potential. Will watch daily trends closely to update
near term forecasts for these potential hazards accordingly. If
precipitation amounts remain little to none, we will have to watch
for elevated fire weather conditions mid to late week, especially
for the western Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Southerly
winds at 10-15 kts will weaken this afternoon, turn to
northeasterly to easterly later this afternoon and evening, and
strengthen to 10-15 kts tonight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52