561
FXUS64 KAMA 181123 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

- Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly across the western
  Panhandles today through Saturday night.

- Better chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the
  area Sunday into Monday morning.

- The best chance of heavier rain, greater than 3 inches, looks
  to be shifting west into northeast New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The base of an upper level trough was spreading southeast from
southern Nevada into northwest Arizona.  An upper level low is
expected to develop in the base of the trough over northern Arizona
today and then the low should cut off over central Arizona by mid
day Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Panhandles today into tonight as a couple of short
wave troughs move through the southwest flow ahead of the upper low
and across the Panhandles. The flow aloft on Saturday will start to
turn more southerly.  There may be some morning showers and
thunderstorms in association with another short wave trough moving
through the region. But it now looks like the heavier rain Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning may re-develop farther to the west
in eastern New Mexico where the coupling of the upper jets will be
found and the best convergence along the surface trough will be
found.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

As the upper level low moves north-northeast from the 4-corners to
north-central Nebraska Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon it
will drag a vort max across the region and bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms to the area.  This is when the better
chance of rain will be found for the eastern Panhandles which may
miss out on most of the rain for Friday and Saturday.

The forecast will then go dry Monday night through the rest of this
forecast.  High temperatures will then warm to above average again
Monday through Thursday after being below average this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

MVFR conditions will prevail through this forecast. A few showers
will be possible from time to time, but these are not expected to
worsen conditions below MVFR. A few thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening, so have inserted a PROB 30 group for
this possibility. Southerly winds will prevail at 15 to 25 knots
with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  54  67  53 /  50  30  60  30
Beaver OK                  74  52  72  48 /  20  30  40  10
Boise City OK              64  51  62  48 /  50  70  80  70
Borger TX                  72  57  73  54 /  30  30  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  55  68  53 /  60  50  70  60
Canyon TX                  64  55  66  53 /  50  40  70  40
Clarendon TX               67  54  69  53 /  30  30  50  10
Dalhart TX                 64  52  62  49 /  60  70  80  70
Guymon OK                  69  51  69  49 /  40  40  50  30
Hereford TX                66  56  66  54 /  50  50  80  50
Lipscomb TX                74  53  73  49 /  10  20  30  10
Pampa TX                   69  53  68  51 /  20  20  40  10
Shamrock TX                72  54  74  49 /  20  10  30  10
Wellington TX              72  55  75  50 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15