229
FXUS64 KAMA 072348
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm this evening
  which would have an outside chance to become strong to severe.

- Potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
  activity is favored Sunday afternoon and through the evening,
  with all hazards possible once again. The primary hazards look
  to be damaging winds and large hail.

- Active weather looks to continue into next week with chances
  for shower and thunderstorms clear into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A slight reprieve looks to be present this afternoon as model
agreement sees the atmosphere recover from the severe weather
overnight and yesterday evening. At this time any chances that the
latest CAMs are seeing are mostly situated around the
Northwestern Panhandles where the higher elevations could see
storms develop off the mountains and move in and then south into
the Central Panhandles. In terms of severe weather latest CAMs as
well as the present 18Z sounding do suggest that there is still
plenty of CAPE present, with MLCAPE values capable of rising as
high as 2000 J/kg. With this amount instability it would be
possible to reach hail sizes up to 1.5 inches, especially if the
present effective bulk shear can reach near the 50 kt mark.
However, this instability is also accompanied by a decent mid-
level dry layer that could cap activity. At this time chances of
development in the northwest are around 20 to 35% this evening,
but for anything to stay sustained and move south chances are not
as high.

Moving into Sunday will see another good set up for severe weather
as models see upper-level flow shift northwesterly with the
movement of a broad trough up in the Midwest. Meanwhile, latest
form the CAMs continues to see a trend of very high MLCAPE values
with some portions of the Panhandles possibly peaking at over 4000
J/kg. This instability combine with effective bulk shear pushing
the 50 to 60 kt range could easily see large and destructive hail
up to 4 inches in diameter with any discrete cells. Added to this
destructive hail will also be the potential for very strong
straight line winds with many of the CAMs still suggesting that
cells will congeal into a line thanks to a disturbance pushing in
from the north. As for the tornado threat, latest CAMs do still
see certain ingredient in play for the day, such as 3CAPE values
above 100 J/kg, low LCL heights, and 0 to 3km shear above 20 kt.
However, the lack of 0 to 1 km shear has confidence on the lower
end. Meanwhile on the flooding side, models are expecting for PWAT
values to rebound with the all locations above an inch. What will
need be watch is the eastern half of the Panhandles where values
rise even further with some locations near the Southeastern
Panhandles nearing 2 inch mark. It should also be noted that,
grounds are already decently saturated from the prior week of
activity that could make it much more prone to flooding. The one
big wrench in all this activity continues to be the movement cold
front following the trough to our north. Prior model runs have
suggested that this front may stall in Kansas, however, the latest
CAMS have also seen it push into the Panhandles sometime Sunday.
If the front does pass then severe weather will heavily degrade
with activity quick to fall off for the overnight. However if it
does stall, then there is potential to see similar conditions to
last night where we see thunderstorms present clear into Monday
morning.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Northwesterly flow looks to stay present as we move into the new
week with model agreement seeing the upper-level trough push into
the Great Lakes Region with a ridge continuing to build over the
Western United States. This upper-level flow is generally
beneficial for the Panhandles to receive active weather as it
allow for quick short-wave disturbances to move across the area
that will produce showers and thunderstorms. Currently, model
agreement looks to agree to the active pattern continuing as we
see short-waves move across each day which will prompt 20 to 40%
chances of precipitation clear into Friday. Of course chances like
these for this time of year with always come with the threat of
severe weather, with latest runs already depicting Monday having
decent CAPE but no wind shear. Regardless, this active pattern
does look like it might have an end with latest models seeing the
ridge move over by this weekend. For now, look for temperatures to
stay below our normal with afternoon highs in the 70s to 80s.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions to start the 00Z TAF at all TAF sites. PROB30 group
starting around 20Z to the end of the TAF period where +TSRA
conditions will be possible for KGUY/KAMA. Any TSRA moving over
TAF sites may cause strong erratic winds. Winds will be variable
at 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  88  59  78 /  10  50  60  20
Beaver OK                  60  83  57  82 /  10  50  30   0
Boise City OK              58  86  55  79 /  20  40  30  20
Borger TX                  64  89  60  82 /  20  60  50  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  91  60  80 /  10  50  50  20
Canyon TX                  62  90  57  78 /  10  40  60  20
Clarendon TX               64  88  60  78 /  10  60  70  20
Dalhart TX                 57  87  55  78 /  30  50  40  20
Guymon OK                  60  83  56  80 /  10  60  40  10
Hereford TX                62  91  59  78 /  10  40  50  30
Lipscomb TX                62  84  59  81 /  10  60  50  10
Pampa TX                   63  85  59  78 /  20  70  60  10
Shamrock TX                64  89  60  80 /  10  60  70  10
Wellington TX              66  90  62  81 /  10  60  80  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29