213
FXUS64 KAMA 031145
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
545 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for portions of
  the TX Panhandle, especially for the SW TX Panhandle today.

- Cannot rule out a strong or severe thunderstorm tonight for the
  eastern Panhandles.

- Potential for more of the combined Panhandles to see showers and
  thunderstorms, some severe for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Southerly winds tonight under partly cloudy skies will keep
overnight lows about 10 degrees or so above average for early March.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to upper
40s across the region.

For Tuesday, it will set up as a western Panhandles vs eastern
Panhandles in the set up for weather conditions. To start for the
western Panhandles, a lee sfc low by late morning in SE Colorado
will develop out ahead of the main H500 perturbation across the
central Rockies. This will result in downsloping westerly winds
off the NM high terrain which will result in dry airmass with
breezy conditions setting up for western and portions of the
central Panhandles. Mainly driven with low RH values, however with
breezy westerly winds for areas out ahead of the front, elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible for portions of Tuesday
afternoon, especially in the SW TX Panhandle. Meanwhile for the
eastern Panhandles, as the main H700- 500 trough axis develops the
main axis further south and east into northern New Mexico by
Tuesday afternoon, sufficient H700 (+) theta-e advection will
take place into the eastern Texas Panhandles by mid afternoon,
providing more saturated mid levels of the atmosphere compared to
locations in the western Panhandles drying out. For all of the
Panhandles, as the main LLTR move over west Texas by tomorrow
afternoon, sufficient LL WAA will be in place ahead of the
approaching sfc cold front, especially for the southern Texas
Panhandle. High temperatures for Tuesday have been adjusted based
off cold front progression trends. Quite the dichotomy of high
temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the NE Panhandles in the wake of the front
to lower and mid 80s for the southern Texas Panhandle.

As the cold front moves south, the aforementioned area of H700
(+) theta-e advection will interact with its inverse behind the
southward progressing cold front, this should cause enough lift
for showers and thunderstorms to develop for portions of the
eastern Texas Panhandle. CAPE values around 1000 J/kg in the most
aggressive model data sets. Depending of the timing of the front
interacting with the mid level theta-e gradient, instability could
be sfc based, but more likely elevated. We could still see a
strong to perhaps severe storm early on, but as the evening
progresses, activity should move east into western Oklahoma.
Severe criteria hail will be possible for more robust storms with
established updrafts for the eastern Texas Panhandle late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. To aid these thunderstorm
chances, H500-250 jet placement puts the Panhandles in a region
of large scale ascent around 21-00Z Wed. Chances remain low
(20-30%) for thunderstorms, but still something to watch closely.

By Wednesday, in the wake of the cold front, large scale subsidence
in the column will return to the Panhandles bringing dry weather
conditions. High temperatures by Wednesday will range from the
mid 60s to lower 70s, still above average for early March.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1023 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

As of the latest global model and numerical data-sets shows the
potential for an active start to the long term forecast period. For
Thursday, a pseudo dryline set up for severe thunderstorm potential
is there. Current model consensus has said pseudo dryline along
the TX/NM stateline by Thursday afternoon. With decent mid level
N-S moisture advection out ahead of the pseudo dryline and good
effective wind shear, we could see thunderstorm development where
some storms could be severe. Timing and placement of sfc and mid
level features will be key for thunderstorm development with
adjustments to the forecast expected as we get closer to Thursday.
If dryline sets up further east, some critical fire weather
conditions could enter the far western Panhandles for Thursday.
Several variables to watch closely. Dry conditions likely to
return to the Panhandles Friday through the coming weekend before
the potential for an active weather pattern to return next week.
High temperatures will remain above average throughout the long
term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

There will be potential for low ceilings and perhaps fog to move
over KGUY from Kansas this morning, but should clear out by the
afternoon. Amendments may be needed for short-lived category
changes. Winds will be 10-20 kts initially out of the west, but
shifting to northerly behind a cold front. Some low to mid cloud
decks may return by the end of the period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38