268
FXUS64 KAMA 311054
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Thunderstorms return Monday and chances prevail through the
remainder of the week. Odds for storms becoming severe are low,
but not improbable each day.

Elevated fire weather conditions may return Monday due to breezy
southerly winds and low relative humidity.

Hot temperatures are expected today and Monday. Thunderstorms and
cloud coverage may help us cool down by the midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

H500 heights continue to rise in the short term period as the ridge
becomes elongated across the CONUS. Poor moisture quality will lead
to sunny skies and will create hot and dry conditions for today.
Surface winds will be light and somewhat variable due to the passage
of a surface low. This will mitigate fire weather conditions, and to
a lesser extent, warm air advection across the CWA. Diurnal heating
will still be sufficient enough to allow surface temperature to
climb into the 90s and some lower 100s this afternoon.

Monday, theta-e surges back into the FA and moisture profiles
increase in quality. Surface winds will also revert back to south-
southeasterly flow, which aids in moisture advection. Perturbations
off the ridge axis and it`s western flank will promote thunderstorm
formation in the western combine Panhandles. This activity will
begin Monday afternoon, with isolated cells as the most likely
convective regime for our area. For this reason, the NBM has lowered
PoPs due to the expected lower rain coverage for the Panhandles and
these changes were accepted. The ridge axis over the Oklahoma
Panhandle tomorrow afternoon and evening will be the target for the
strongest forcing and instability for our CWA. Organized storms
cannot be ruled out for those zones, but the higher severe potential
still exists further north in Kansas and Colorado. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary hazard for any storm that can become
severe in our area. With regard to high temperatures, tomorrow
should be slightly warmer than our highs today. More locations will
be closer to the upper 90s and may even hit triple digits for a
brief period of time before cloud coverage drops afternoon
temperatures. For today and tomorrow, the areas most likely to rise
above 100 degrees will be along the Canadian River Valley and Palo
Duro Canyon. Heat risk is expected to stay around minor to moderate
for impacts due to dry conditions at the surface mitigating the risk
for inflated heat index temperatures.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A monsoonal weather pattern continues to be the highlight for the
comings days of the new week. Forecast mid to upper level flow shows
signs of forming a positively tilted omega block over the CONUS in
the extended period. This pattern places the High Plains on the
western periphery of the developing ridge for the midweek, while a
weak upper trough begins to form in the desert southwest. Later at
the end of the current extended, the jet stream flattens out over
northern portions of North America. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
trough in the southwest CONUS is forecast to deepen and transition
northeastward towards the Central Plains.

Long range models remain confident for favorable low and mid level
moisture to setup over the CWA. However, weak H250 and H500 winds
will insure that the storm mode will lend towards more pulse-type
convection instead of organized convection. The coverage and
location of storms will still vary on a daily basis as it is
dependent on the strength and axis placement of our theta-e
gradient. At this time, isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out for any day in the long term period. This will affect
locations where moisture and instability are at their highest. Yet,
sustainability of storms will constantly be in question due to weak
upper level forcing. At the end of the new week, the moisture axis
looks to propagate eastward and the new upper low moves in. PoPs
will follow this pattern shift, but there is still some uncertainty
regarding system placement late in the week. Therefore, PoPs may
continue to fluctuate as we approach those coming days.

Highs will still range in the 80`s and 90`s through most of the
first week of June. Though Wednesday and Thursday could become below
average temperature days due to persistent precipitation and
increased cloud coverage. Highs back in the 70s even appear possible
on Wednesday.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions along with relatively light winds are expected
through the 12Z TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...03