008
FXUS64 KAMA 021042
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
542 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday across the
Panhandles. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible starting
as early as late this afternoon and continuing through the night.
Large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are all possible.
There is a very low chance for a tornado across the northern
combined Panhandles.

- Heat will become the primary concern across the Panhandles from
Tuesday through at least Saturday as temperatures climb into the
mid-90s to 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Remnant clouds from overnight convection and moist upslope low-level
winds will result in morning cloudiness for the eastern and central
Panhandles, but should break down in the afternoon. Meanwhile, with
an upper-level ridge centered over Baja California, a ridge riding
shortwave trough will approach the region late in the afternoon
resulting in the development of convection in the vicinity of NE New
Mexico/SE Colorado/northwestern combined Panhandles and move
southeast. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding when
this activity will make it into the CWA; some CAMs suggest they
quickly move in by the late afternoon, others wait until just after
00z. Nonetheless, with ongoing destabilization across the Panhandles
and spring-like wind shear (effective wind shear 40-50 kts), any
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of intensifying into
strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the favorable instability and
speed and directional wind shear, supercells will be favored with
discrete storms. Forecast soundings in the northwestern combined
Panhandles is forecast to be straight before around 01z which
implies crosswise vorticity and the tendency for supercells to
split. The low-level jet will strengthen through the evening
enlarging the low-level hodograph and favoring right-moving
supercells. However, around this time storm coverage is also
expected to increase which should eventually lead to the development
of a couple clusters or a line of thunderstorms. Large hail up to
the size of golf balls (possibly larger) and 70 mph winds would be
the primary threat with any discrete/semi-discrete supercells before
transitioning into more of a damaging wind threat. There is also a
low tornado threat particularly with any right-moving supercell that
can remain discrete after around 01z. Will also have to watch for
the potential for nuance or even flash flooding through the night as
PWATs increase to around 1.5" to 1.75"+.

Another shortwave trough is favored to impact the area on Sunday,
but any kind of thunderstorm (and strong/severe) potential will
depend upon how quickly the overnight convection moves out and how
much destabilization is allowed.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Monday will be the coolest and only day of next week that will be
cooler than normal with temperatures largely in the mid to upper-
80s. Tuesday and beyond, the upper-level ridge will expand eastward
into the region and allow temperatures to warm into the 90s on
Tuesday and upper-90s to 100s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

IFR and MVFR conditions expected for the next couple to three
hours as low clouds impact KAMA and KGUY. KDHT should stay with
VFR conditions. Southerly winds up to 12 to 15 kts expected during
this period. After 00Z Sunday, chances for thunderstorms increase
across the combined Panhandles. All three terminals have 30 to 60
percent chances of seeing thunderstorms during the overnight
hours, 00Z to 12Z Sunday. Some of these storms may be strong to
severe and potentially have heavy rain reducing conditions down
to LIFR.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36