Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
041 FXUS64 KAMA 162319 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 519 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures persist through at least Tuesday, with each day getting gradually cooler. - Next significant weather system looks to be on the horizon for Wednesday night through Friday, with increased precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 GOES water vapor imagery currently shows a mid to upper level closed low over CA/NV. This low is progged to move northeast and get ingested back into the main flow somewhere over UT tonight. In doing so an associated shortwave trough will skirt by to the northwest and suppress the ridge ever so slightly bringing in somewhat cooler, although still above average, temperatures tomorrow. Tonight, this system is expected to help create a leeside low over eastern CO with it progged to progress east into KS tomorrow. When this happens surface winds will shift to the west with slightly cooler temperatures and drier air filling into the Panhandles. Can almost say this is a weak Pacific front. How low the dewpoints will be especially in the western Panhandles is a bit uncertain. Some models have Tds falling to the mid 20s while others drop to the lower 20s. Depending on how dry and breezy conditions get, elevated fire weather conditions could be spotty or even widespread for a period tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Above average temperatures and dry conditions expected to last through Wed. It is not until Thu/Thu night when another upper level trough and low pressure system are expected to bring temperatures down to near normal in the 50s for a high, and potentially below freezing overnight temperatures Friday night. This system is expected to bring a shot at some precipitation as well. The NBM currently has upwards of 60 pops for the southeastern Panhandles with 40s to the northwest for Thursday afternoon. There is still a bit of uncertainty like all systems approaching the FA to whether the track of the low will indeed produce some beneficial rainfall. NBM probs are fairly decent, with 40 to 60 percent chance of measuring at least a tenth over a 24 hour period into Friday morning. The far eastern combined Panhandles hangs on to 60 percent chance for totals up to a quarter of an inch. PoPs drop off for Saturday with afternoon highs maintaining in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10 to 20 kts with mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...29