891
FXUS64 KAMA 041048
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
548 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- There is a low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
  this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will be possible with
  any of this activity, but cannot rule out a rogue wind gust up
  to 70 mph.

- The arrival of a cold front Friday morning will see temperatures
  cool and the Panhandles getting their first taste of fall with
  highs in the 60s to 70s.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored across the
  Panhandles, and especially the southern Texas Panhandle, this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Present synoptic pattern continues see the development of the
ridge over the Western United State as the trough settled over the
Great Lakes region slowly exits to the northeast. This setup has
lead to the Panhandles falling under northwesterly flow, which has
the tendency to push any afternoon thunderstorm off the Southern
Rockies and into the Northwestern Panhandles. At this time the
latest CAMs analysis is in agreement with that statement with most
of them seeing activity around move in around 5 to 6 PM this
evening. Given the present CAMS and the NBMs usual struggle with
this type of activity, have chosen to add some POPs to the area.
In terms of severity, the primary concern with any thunderstorm
that does move in would be outflow winds as present runs have
shown DCAPE above 1500 J/kg and inverted V-shape soundings that
could lead damaging wind gusts this evening.

Moving into Friday, does see an interesting change to our weather
with many models expecting the arrival of a backdoor cold front
during the morning. This early arrival will keep temperatures cool
for the day with afternoon high temperatures only projected to get
into the mid 60s to low 70s However, the early arrival of the
front does not fully halt our active weather pattern. Presently,
models are seeing more moisture starting to seep into the
Panhandles from both the gulf and what is expected to be the
fringe remnants of Hurricane Lorena. If the front can stall over
the Panhandles like a few of the models are calling for, then this
excess moisture can take advantage of the boundary and start up
some scatter showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and
evening. Confidence on this potential is not too high, however, as
cold fronts have a tendency to sink further south than what models
project. For now, have kept the lower POPs in for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

This coming weekend will continue to see the building of the
ridge present over the Western United States as the Panhandles
begin to see more influence from the associated high pressure
system. Under normal circumstances this high pressure would give a
period of dry and warm weather, but. much like it has all year,
the positioning of the high instead has open the Panhandles to yet
another monsoonal moisture opportunity. Looking at the latest
model run we continue to see the trend of good southerly to
southeasterly flow at the lower levels which will invite moisture
to transport out of the gulf. PWAT values are showing this
incoming moisture move in with many models seeing values once
again rise over the one inch mark Saturday afternoon. This influx
of moisture will bring chances of precipitation that afternoon
that will only improve as more moisture move in.

Where concern begin to rise is Saturday night into Sunday.
Presently, models are tracking what is currently Hurricane Lorena
move across the Gulf of California and into Northern Mexico over
these next few days. If the present track can hold, then model
agreement expects the remnants of the hurricane to slowly funnel
into the Southern Great Plains. Depending on where the remnants
end up, PWAT values can rise over the 1.5 inch mark and create
heavy rainfall for this period. As for the Panhandles, latest form
the ensembles is in favor or seeing activity for the with POPs
ranging from 30 to 50%, but the presence of high rainfall rates
may fall just to our south. Regardless higher moisture content
looks to hold for next week as model agreement projects the high
pressure system to funneling more gulf moisture into the eastern
Panhandles. Otherwise look for the influx of moisture to keep
temperature on the cooler side with afternoon highs in the 70s for
the weekend and 80s to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

The next 24 hours will have generally VFR conditions at all
terminals and across the panhandles. There is a small exception of
patchy low level cloud deck and mist of MVFR to IFR level in the
northern panhandle. Currently this has a low to moderate chance of
impacting KGUY before it dissipates with sunrise. There remains a
very low chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in
the NW panhandles this afternoon. The chance of these impacting
any terminal are too low to be reflected within any TAF. A passing
cold front will bring a sharp shift to northerly and gusty winds
tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98