Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
941 FXUS64 KAMA 291903 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 103 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 -Very cold temperatures for Sunday and Monday in the wake of the cold front. -Few light snow showers for the far NE Panhandles on Monday, with another weak system for the chance to see additional winter precipitation later in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The cold front has made its way through the Panhandles this morning with cold temperatures moving south into the region. If we can break through some of the cloud coverage this afternoon, the southern Texas Panhandle may reach the lower to mid 40s. As seen with the latest 18Z RAOB data for AMA, quite the notable sfc-H700 CAA has entered the Panhandles region. Although cloud coverage will increase from NW to SE across the region ahead of our next weather system, temperatures tonight will drop into the teens for low temperatures tonight. With said cloud cover hanging tough across the Panhandles, went a handful of degrees below the NBM 25th percentile for high temperatures tomorrow. Areas along the I-40 corridor and points north may only reach the lower 30s for high temperatures tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 With a notable area of (-)vorticity advection displacing the better H850-700 theta-e advection into western Oklahoma by Monday morning ahead of the next mid level trough, this is likely a cause of the model output continue to drop probabilities of 1" of snow down to around 10% chance for the far northeastern Panhandles by late Monday morning. The displaced moisture and lift overall should also keep best winter precipitation chances further north and east. Cannot completely rule out a light dusting of snow as far south as the far northern TX Panhandle. System should quickly exit by Monday afternoon. Dry conditions with a series of front dropping temperatures back to below average will continue throughout most of the long term forecast period. The only exception could be Thursday night where some of the latest 29/12Z model and numerical data brings around a 20% chance of rain/snow showers for part of the TX Panhandle from another weak disturbance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 MVFR/IFR cigs being observed at all TAF sites to start the 18Z TAF period. These cigs should improve to VFR levels by 21-23Z for all TAF sites and remain at VFR throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 15-25 kts with gusts of 30-35 kts through 00-03Z Sunday before winds shift to southerly at 5-10 kts through the remainder of the TAF period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29