Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
429 FXUS64 KAMA 090453 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1053 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No impactful weather is currently expected within the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a ridge just off the West Coast and some shortwave troughs moving across portions of the Central and Eastern US, including one that just moved past the Panhandles. One of the previously mentioned shortwaves will produce a fairly robust surface low, around 990mb, which will track through the Midwest. Although the system itself will be far away from the Panhandles, its impacts will be felt; it will draw in some anomalously warm 850mb temps, between the 75th and 90th percentile, and cause downsloping southwesterly winds across the Panhandles. These factors, along with a sunny sky, will help temperatures warm into the upper-60s to around 70 degrees across our area. Winds will actually be tame especially for our standards, around 10-15 mph, which will make for an incredibly pleasant December day. A cold front will move in Tuesday night and some post-frontal breezy winds can be expected for several hours. The relatively cooler airmass will settle in on Wednesday but temperatures will remain warmer than normal. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Fairly strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to set up over the Rockies on Thursday, and a subtle perturbation in the flow will develop a lee surface low in SE Wyoming/W Nebraska/NE Colorado which will shift southward/southeastward through the day. A warm airmass will move overhead similar to Tuesday but warmer and closer to the 90th percentile for this part of December. Widespread 70 degree highs can be expected, and there is around a 20-40% chance for highs to reach or exceed 75 degrees in the northwestern combined Panhandles, and a 10-20% chance in the southeastern half. A cold front is expected to move in from the north Thursday night into Friday morning. Operational and ensemble model guidance is still largely split into two camps regarding the timing of the cold front, with the GFS/GEFS camp bringing the front in earlier while the ECMWF/EPS and Canadian/GEPS brings the front in later. However, over the past 24 hours the GFS/GEFS has been trending toward the front arriving later Thursday night. Some breezy winds will once again be possible behind the front through at least Friday morning if not early Friday afternoon. The colder airmass will settle in to the Panhandles through the weekend, but it looks as though the eastern Panhandles will be cooler than normal while the western Panhandles could see temperatures be around normal to warmer than normal. Still, the prospects for rain remain extremely pitiful. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be variable tonight and around 5-10 kts through the day Tuesday. A cold front will move in Tuesday evening, and low-level wind shear may be experienced at least at KDHT. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52