Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
816 FXUS64 KAMA 250455 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Record warmth across the Panhandles today. A cold front tonight will sharply drop temperatures for Monday. Cold weather conditions are forecast to settle in Thursday onward. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Generally benign weather conditions continue during the short term period. Zonal flow aloft continues for the rest of the day, but by the overnight hours a cold front will move through and quickly overtake the Panhandles. The front should pass through the entire CWA by 3 AM. Afterwards, northerly winds will flow through the region for the rest of the period. Today, surface wind speeds are breezy from the west after the passing of a shortwave trough. Warm air advection will still occur through the afternoon and above average temperatures are expected across the region. Highs today have a medium chance to meet or exceed record values at our climate sites, with the highest chance to set a new record at Amarillo. Tomorrow, highs will sharply decrease by 20 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Wind speeds will stay breezy from the north through most of the day, but will gradually decrease in speeds from west to east. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 The upper level pattern returns to a brief period of zonal flow over the CWA for the start of the long term period. The next trough moves southward through the Panhandles on Wednesday. Afterwards, a cold airmass will settle in over the region. Warm air advection resumes in the combined Panhandles on Tuesday, and temperatures should return to the 50`s and 60`s. This trend will continue on Wednesday. However, as our next cold front enters the CWA Wednesday afternoon, Highs will drop from north to south. 60 degree temperatures may only exist in the southern half of our CWA. Behind the front, Thursday onward, highs will fall back into the 40`s and 50`s. Meanwhile, morning lows should stay below freezing for much of the area. Currently, a low/medium chance for lows in the teens exist in the Oklahoma Panhandles Friday through next Sunday. Additionally, wind chills for the latter half of the extended have a higher chance of being below 20 degrees, and for some locations in our northern zones a slight chance (15-25%) to experience wind chills in the single digits. Chances for wintry precipitation continue to decrease for the northwest Panhandles Wednesday night into Thursday. There seems to be less and less available moisture alongside the front for precipitation to occur. The 12Z run of the operational GFS and some members of the GEFS ensemble suggest that snow is still possible for the north, and there`s chances for snow even in the central Texas Panhandle. These are the outliers amongst the rest of the guidance, so the NBM has reduced POPs below mentionable criteria for almost the entire CWA. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 A cold front is currently advancing across the Panhandles from north to south, bringing breezy north winds of 10-20 kts, with higher gusts up to 30 kts possible at times. High cloud decks are also moving in, but sky and visibility conditions will remain VFR. Winds will subside after 18z at all sites, becoming more light and variable. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 79 34 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 79 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 75 28 46 30 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 80 34 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 78 33 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 77 34 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 80 36 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 76 29 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 79 28 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 78 34 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 78 32 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 79 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 83 35 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 83 37 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...38