Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
283 FXUS64 KAMA 071040 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 440 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Benign weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected from Monday through at least Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Benign weather is anticipated for Sunday as the Panhandles will be solidly behind a cold front. Weak winds, cooler than normal temps, and a few clouds can be expected. A shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles Monday morning from the northwest and a surface low will develop on the lee side of the Rockies. Southerly to southwesterly winds will be present across much of the area except perhaps the northwestern combined Panhandles. These winds could be borderline breezy in the southern and eastern Panhandles, but regardless these winds contribute to temperatures warming into the mid- to upper-50s. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place on Tuesday and through much of the long-term period. Another trough embedded in the flow aloft will move toward the Panhandles on Tuesday with a surface low developing in the vicinity of NE New Mexico/SE Colorado. This will likely cause the southwesterly surface winds to strengthen to 10-20 mph during the day. 850mb temperatures are projected to be between the 75th and 90th percentile, which combined with downsloping southwesterly winds, will cause temperatures to warm into the mid to upper-60s. There is a 30-50% chance for highs to exceed 70 degrees in the northwestern combined Panhandles and a 10-25% chance in the southern and eastern combined Panhandles. A weak cold front is forecast to move through Tuesday night as the previously mentioned surface low moves off to the southeast. A more potent trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and progress east-southeastward through Wednesday night and Thursday. Operational and ensemble member guidance is coming into slightly better agreement compared to 12-24 hours ago regarding a potentially stronger cold front moving in on Thursday with colder air settling in for Friday and into the weekend. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the next 24 hours. Winds will most likely be weak through the next 24 hours as well. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...98