Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
789 FXUS64 KAMA 061911 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 111 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 This afternoon, strong westerly winds in the southwestern Texas Panhandle may create some minor adverse conditions for certain outdoor activities. Typical breezy winds can be expected throughout the rest of the area. Fire weather conditions should remain near or below elevated in the southwest today. Continue to practice fire safety in those areas and obey burn bans. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The main highlights of the short term this period are the fluctuating temperatures and wind speeds. Today, a tight surface pressure gradient wind amplify winds across the CWA. The southwest Texas Panhandle should experience the strongest wind speeds today, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A surface low will develop over the region later today, ahead of the incoming cold front. This will help wind speeds decrease later this evening. There are some concerns that wind speeds could be lighter overall today given how RAP Mesoanalysis shows observed winds lower and MSL pressure broader than the RAP forecast. Winds will still increase as the day progresses, but they might not get as strong as previous forecast or for nearly as long. Later this evening, a cold front will move in and winds will become light and northerly. Highs today should reach the 60`s area wide, but temperatures will decrease quickly behind the front. Tomorrow, highs are expected to return to near average values in the 40`s and 50`s. Though sky coverage is expected to remain mostly clear, surface winds should prevail from the north through most of the day. Unlike today, wind speeds are forecast to be much lighter overall throughout the CWA. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The general pattern in the extended still consists of benign weather with a couple of cold fronts to help us stay in range of our average highs for the season. 500 mb heights show high pressure building over the western CONUS this upcoming week. This will force upper level trough activity further east, leaving our FA in the middle of this activity. High temperatures will be bound to the 50`s and 60`s, while morning lows will rise from 20`s to 30`s by the midweek. Some models like the operational GFS hint at a cold airmass settling further west into the region by next weekend, but there still isn`t much consistency amongst long range models to definitively anticipate a more substantial cool down. The lack of moisture advection will also keep weather conditions dry in the extended. Surface winds will have to be monitored on a day-to-day basis if fire weather conditions become more prevalent. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 TAFs continue with VFR conditions through the 18Z period. Breezy, westerly winds are expected though the afternoon today. After a cold front passes through this evening, winds will become light and northerly. Low level wind shear looks less likely at all sites tonight; therefore, mentions have been removed. Wind speeds in the first 2,000 ft will increase marginally, but it shouldn`t be enough to create low level speed shear in the area tonight. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55