Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
733 FXUS64 KAMA 210517 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1117 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Next weather system arrives Sunday bringing another round of shower and storm chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 With the upper level storm system beginning to eject away from the Panhandles tonight, dry air has infiltrated the region and ended most areas of precipitation. A few areas of fog, potentially dense at times, may impact the northern Panhandles through the morning hours. A cold front currently draped across far southern KS and CO will push south over the Panhandles through the morning, leading to a pleasant and drier fall day. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with 10-15 mph north winds. Zonal flow aloft tomorrow will sustain similar conditions to today, although winds will be more light and variable. Overnight lows will primarily be in the 30s tonight and Sat night. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Rain chances are progged to resume early Sunday lasting through Sunday night for much of the Panhandles. Another closed low currently centered atop the San Francisco Bay will jog south and then translate eastward towards the Plains this weekend. Moisture return to the region will be comparable to this past system, with southerly flow supplying 0.6-0.9" PWATs and 40s to low 50s dew points. Scattered showers and storms are looking likely as a result (50-80% POPs), lifting from southwest to northeast through the day. Despite weak instability (MUCAPE <500 J/kg) due to cloudy skies and cooler temps in the 50s, strong wind shear with this system could allow for a few storms to be on the strong side at times. Much like with this past event, a dry slot will pull in with the low, bringing an end to precipitation by Sunday night. This appears to be a shorter duration event, which would favor lighter rainfall totals <0.5" for most locations, with low chances (10-40%) to exceed a half inch of rain. Monday and Tuesday will be dry, while another front late Monday into Tuesday draws cooler, below average temperatures to the Panhandles. Our unsettled pattern isn`t done there however, as global models have converged on depicting a Canadian low dipping over the northern Plains, clipping the Panhandles with a wave of energy within northwest flow aloft. As the trough axis approaches, it appears that a stronger cold front will arrive late Tue into Wed. Any moisture pooled behind the front has very low chances (~15% or less) to be enough to generate some light precipitation. There`s plenty of time for details to change for mid-late next week`s weather, but the highest confidence aspect of the forecast is that it should actually feel like late November with closer to average temperatures. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Low clouds and occasional fog are impacting KDHT and KGUY this evening, creating LIFR conditions at these sites. Confidence is higher that these conditions will be more consistent at KGUY, while KDHT might have intermittent clearing. KAMA is expected to remain VFR but has low chances for low cloud decks to move in later this morning. Winds will shift out of the north at 10-15 kts as a cold front moves in tonight. All sites should likely resume VFR conditions by the end of the period. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38