Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
291 FXUS64 KAMA 021736 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1136 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 -Potential for light snow Wednesday night for the central to western combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Slight H5 height rises are expected today as an upper level trough exits the area. This will allow H85 temperatures to warm back around positive 10 degrees C. Afternoon highs are progged to be in the upper 50s to possibly some lower 60s because of this. The next upper level trough to impact the area is expected to swing through late tomorrow. Out of ahead of it, a leeside surface low is progged to develop just to the west in NM today causing some breezy southwesterly winds. As this low traverses the combined Panhandles tonight, a cold front will follow moving into the area early tomorrow. This front is expected to bring in north to northeast winds around 15 to 20 mph by Wed afternoon and help hold temperatures back 8 to 15 degrees. The upper level trough may also bring some prospects for snow. The western Panhandles has the best chance of measuring snow with PoPs around 30, dropping off to 10 or less in the eastern Panhandles. Models have depicted this system moving in much faster now with PoPs in the northwest during the day Wednesday, with much of the activity happening Wednesday and wrapping up before sunrise Thursday. With this very open and positively tilted trough to come in Wed night, moisture will be lacking once again. Flow aloft remains too zonal with little to no low level moisture to work with. Much of the mid to upper level moisture that is bringing the snow chances will be lost over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before the main lift gets here. The NBM mean gives the higher elevations 5" of snow, with maybe the highest peaks getting 6" to 7". The NBM mean only gives the far northwest combined Panhandles around 1" with less than half an inch further into the central Panhandles. Overall this system is not looking favorable for any significant moisture, but will be watch for potential winter impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Thanks to the cold front on Wed, see short term discussion, Thu is looking to have some fairly cool afternoon highs in the lower to mid 40s. The NBM has backed off on some cooler air moving in with previous forecast packages only having highs in the 30s on Thu. This is probably thanks to this system moving in and out much sooner than previous model runs. Not much else to talk about in the long term as temperatures are set to rebound back into the 50s to maybe lower 60s with no foreseeable precipitation chances. A weak cold front may temporarily pull back temperatures a bit for Sunday with the northeast seeing afternoon temperatures in the 40s with mid to upper 50s in the central to southwestern combined Panhandles. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception would be the potential of MVFR cigs to move into KGUY towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the south backing to northerly closer to the end of the TAF period. Winds will start for KAMA around 15-25 kts with higher gusts at times before subsiding to 5-15 kts. Winds for KDHt/KGUY will be 5-15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...29