114
FXUS64 KAMA 232320
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
520 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Warm and breezy this weekend.

Two cold fronts will reduce temperatures on Monday and Thursday.

Precipitation chances exist in the northwest zones of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Another quiet short term period is forecast this weekend. The
upper level pattern becomes more active by early Monday morning,
as the jet stream trough begins to dig further south. Near the
surface, a shortwave trough will enter from the west and move across
the Panhandles Sunday afternoon. By the overnight time frame, a
cold front infiltrate the region and exit the Texas Panhandle by
Monday morning, close to sunrise.

Above average high temperatures are still on track for the next
couple of days as warm air advection persist through the area.
Today, mostly breezy, southwest winds are forecast across the
CWA. Tomorrow, wind speeds increase slightly and become westerly
as the shortwave trough moves through. Finally, as the cold front
enters the CWA around midnight on Sunday winds will become
northerly and remain that way for the rest of the short term
period. Lows tonight should rise to the 40`s for the southern and
central Texas Panhandle, while the mid to upper 30`s will be
present for locations further north. By Monday morning,
temperatures will reduce back into the 30`s for the combined
Panhandles behind the front.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

At the start of the extended, upper level flow returns to a zonal
regime after a brief trough takes a southerly track through our
region. By the midweek, a broad upper trough develops and creates
a break in the H500 pattern. This trough is forecast to introduce
a stronger impact to the temperature profiles over our CWA as
heights should decrease even further than the perturbation being
introduced on Monday. After the upper trough`s passage through the
High Plains, zonal flow aloft should resume at the end of the
extended.

Monday, below average highs (40`s and 50`s) should envelope the
combined Panhandles behind the first cold front this week.
Northerly winds will flow through the region all day, but by the
overnight time frame winds will quickly revert back from the
southwest.

Tuesday and Wednesday, As upper level zonal flow continues, warm
air will begin to advect from the southwest. This will allow
temperatures during the day to recover and return to the 60`s
across much of the CWA. A tightening pressure gradient at the
surface on these days will allow winds to remain breezy, with a
high chance that wind speeds will be strongest in the southwest
Texas Panhandle.

Wednesday night into Thursday, our next cold front will arrive and
reduce temperatures back below average values. 1-3 km Theta-E
profiles amongst mid to long range models suggest that enough
midlevel moisture will be present alongside the front and permit
precipitation chances in our northern zones. As the front
progresses moisture quality degrades; therefore, chances for
precipitation sharply decrease in central and southern areas of
our CWA. Inconsistency continues within model guidance regarding
precipitation type, as 1000-500 mb thickness relies on the crucial
5400 decameter line moving south along with the front. If this
threshold stays too far north, precipitation may mostly fall as
rain. However, if mid to low level temperatures profiles decrease
and hold below the freezing level, snow will be the dominant
precipitation type. Mostly likely at this time, conditions appear
marginal for snow development and mix precipitation has the
highest chance of occurrence. The new 12Z run of the NBM reflects
this most likely outcome, so no changes were made to the new
forecast.

Friday onward, temperatures may prolong below normal throughout
the CWA. Morning lows could reduce back to the 20`s range region
wide, as highs stay within the 40`s and lower 50`s.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A deck of upper-level clouds is slowly pushing in to the
Panhandles creating scatter and few reports at all the terminals.
This deck will likely persist through the current package, but
should not cause any terminals to drop out of VFR conditions.
Meanwhile, surface winds are slightly stronger than they have
been over the past couple of days, but should still keep around 10
to 15 mph clear into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  75  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  36  68  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              39  70  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  46  76  35  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              41  74  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  44  74  36  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               45  77  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 36  71  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  36  70  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                43  74  37  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                41  72  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   46  75  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                41  78  37  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              41  78  39  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11