Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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825 FXUS64 KAMA 081800 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 - Impactful winter weather continues for western Cimarron and far northwest Dallam counties through evening. - Widespread showers & storms will end from southwest to northeast through evening. - Lows around freezing across much of the western half of the area tonight and this would be the first freeze of the season for some areas. - Quieter, drier weather returns this weekend into next week across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Satellite and mesoanalysis observations show the core of a closed H500 low churning over western New Mexico as of 08z, gradually nudging northeast towards the Panhandles. Waves of energy ahead of the low continue to generate rounds of showers lifting from south to north over the area, with just enough instability for occasional thunder at times. Surface observations show even the coldest areas of the far northwest Panhandles above freezing this morning, likely receiving rain rather than snow for now. Marginal temperatures will support a rain/snow mix for much of the day, transitioning fully to rain or snow at any given point. As the closed low draws nearer, temperature profiles will cool further, especially with any wrap around moisture later this afternoon & evening as the low departs, providing additional snowfall to Cimarron and NW Dallam counties. By the end of the day, another 6-12 inches of snow may have fallen over areas such as Texline, Boise City, and Kenton, which already received several inches of accumulations yesterday. Breezy wind gusts over 30-40 mph will also serve to further degrade visibility, combined with already slick roads, making travel extremely difficult and highly discouraged across impacted locations of the far NW combined Panhandles into NE New Mexico. Further south and east, the aforementioned rounds of cold rain and storms look to provide additional rainfall totals of 0.50-1.50", thanks to the moist air mass in place. The richest moisture resides over the eastern Panhandles, where observed PWAT values exceed 1.0-1.25". CAMs depict prolonged rounds of training convection over these areas through the day, generating another 1.50-2.50" on top of what`s already soaked into the ground yesterday and overnight. These factors provide concern for flooding potential across the east-southeast Texas Panhandle, where a Flood Watch is in effect through 6 PM this evening. As the system passes overhead and lifts northward, a pronounced dry slot will filter in atop the High Plains, ending all precipitation form southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will drop near or below freezing overnight, especially across the western Panhandles, where frost/freeze products may be needed. Temperatures look to rebound nicely in the 50s to low 60s tomorrow thanks to sunny skies, with lower temperatures in the 40s forecast wherever heavy snowpack remains. Frost/freeze products may be needed Sat night-Sun morning, when the northwest half of the CWA will have a high probability (>70%) to drop below 32 degrees once again. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 There are no meaningful changes to address for the long term period, as an inconsequential weather pattern settles in over the region. A gradual warming trend should take place next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, possibly reaching the 70s in the south on Tuesday. This trend will only briefly be interrupted by a weak cold front Wednesday, leading to a chilly thursday morning. A couple days could be slightly on the breezy side, thanks to a subtle trough passage Tue-Wed, but overall winds should be quite tame for Panhandle standards. Deep layer moisture will be scarce throughout the period, meaning precipitation will be hard to find for some time. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Precipitation event will end from SW to NE this evening. DHT will see some snowfall before the precipitation ends, but marginal temperatures near or just above freezing should limit impacts. IFR CIGS and IFR to MVFR Vis will improve from southwest to northeast overnight as rain ends and drier air moves into the region. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 15-17 UTC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 42 33 58 33 / 90 0 0 0 Beaver OK 48 34 58 31 / 100 40 0 0 Boise City OK 34 29 42 26 / 100 70 0 0 Borger TX 45 35 60 33 / 90 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 43 31 56 30 / 90 10 0 0 Canyon TX 43 31 58 31 / 90 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 48 34 61 35 / 90 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 37 26 51 25 / 100 30 0 0 Guymon OK 43 32 56 28 / 100 50 0 0 Hereford TX 42 31 59 32 / 90 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 35 59 33 / 100 20 0 0 Pampa TX 46 34 58 34 / 90 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 54 35 63 36 / 100 0 0 0 Wellington TX 56 35 64 35 / 100 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001. Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ005-010-014-015- 018>020-317. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ006. OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...88