830
FXUS64 KAMA 040642
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
142 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances remain present through the
  weekend and next week with chances for severe weather each day.

- Thursday continues to trend as a very conditional, but strong severe
  weather day, with potential to see all hazards present clear
  into the overnight hours.

- Multiple days of showers and thunderstorms could accumulate into
  localized flooding across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

As of late tonight, latest radar and satellite imagery was
watching storms develop off the mountains of Eastern New Mexico.
At this time, these storms have struggle to make their way into
the Panhandles with the present cold air mass keeping the area too
stable for activity to maintain itself. However, the latest
trends from the CAMs does suggest that this air mass could be out
of the area by early Wednesday morning, with models calling for
the first of many bands of precipitation by sunrise. Where things
get interesting for tomorrow is during the early evening time
frame with the expected arrival of the short-wave disturbance. At
this time models are expecting all activity to revolve around this
short-wave as latest trends have not seen at lot of instability
present, MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg. That is not to say that
severe weather can not get going as these trends predict that
there will be decent bulk and low-level wind shear present along
the boundary line. Regardless, the continued presence of PWAT
values over an inch does suggest that we could see a lot of
moderate to heavy rainfall out of storms, which could lead to some
localized flooding concerns depending on the actual speed of the
short-wave and associated boundary. Either way, a small reprieve
from activity looks to follow once the wave exits late tonight.

Moving into Thursday, model agreement continues to place the
Panhandles in a zonal upper-level flow pattern, which opens us up
for another short-wave and more activity. Initially both storm and
severe potential look very conditional as the atmosphere tries to
recover from Wednesday activity. However, this could be quick to
change as multiple CAMs have seen the ingredients for all severe
hazards to be in play across the Panhandles, including flooding
chances, with many of the said models seeing the dry-line forced
into New Mexico. What has been concerning, is that multiple CAMs
have suggested enough recovery and an added short-wave could
create activity during the overnight time frame. If trends
continue over the next several runs, then this activity could also
be in play for all hazards with multiple models seeing both high
shear and MLCAPE values present and uncapped clear past the
midnight time frame. Added to this will be the continue high
moisture with PWAT values staying well above an inch that will
help maintain storms and create flooding opportunities clear into
Friday morning.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A more zonal upper-level flow pattern is expected to keep active
weather going as we move into this weekend thanks to multiple
short-wave disturbance pushing through on the pattern. As it
stands for Friday afternoon and evening, model agreement is
trending to be an interesting day with the caveat of being
conditions. Currently both the latest NAM and GFS runs are seeing
potential for all hazards to be in play thanks to high expected 0
to 3km wind shear being present. However, the GFS and it natural
dry bias is a little more reluctant to see high CAPE values with
activity a lot more conditions for the afternoon. The NAM is the
exact opposite with both CAPE and 3CAPE values decently high
across the southern and eastern portions of the Panhandles. Of
course there still a lot of uncertainty, especially given this
activity is expected to follow with activity Thursday, which may
inhibit activity for Friday.

Regardless, more chances do look to follow the weekend as model
agreement see more activity push through, and we slowly transition
to northwesterly flow in the upper-levels. At this time latest
guidance is giving each day around 20 to 40% of seeing some form
of precipitation clear into next Tuesday. Of course each of these
day could pose a threat for severe weather with latest trends
seeing similar conditions on Saturday as what is being seeing
Thursday. However, mesoscale factors, especially with dealing with
short-wave disturbances, are going to be important and create
enough uncertainty for a day by day approach being needed. For
now, look for temperatures to be on the rebound for the expected
cold frontal passage Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon high
temperatures possibly returning to the low 90s as early as
Saturday.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A weather system will be passing through the southern plains for
the next few days. This is causing isolated to scattered rain
showers in the NW panhandles early this morning with a few
embedded thunderstorms. KDHT and KGUY have the highest chances of
seeing these on station. There is a low level cloud deck across
large swaths of the panhandles causing MVFR conditions this
morning. All stations are being impacted or may be impacted later
this morning by this cloud deck. If showers pass over a station
conditions may improve briefly back to VFR and then return to
MVFR following the showers departure this morning. Then for the
late morning and early afternoon conditions improve to VFR as the
low cloud deck scatters out. These conditions will then worsen
during the later afternoon and evening when lines of rain showers
and thunderstorms impact the panhandles including all terminals.
Conditions within the rain showers and thunderstorms will be MVFR
to IFR depending on rain intensity. There is a very low chance
that a few storms may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Through today expect the winds to shift from northerly to
southerly during the morning hours then to the southeasterly in
the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  58  76  61 /  10  70  70  50
Beaver OK                  75  56  76  59 /  10  70  50  80
Boise City OK              73  53  77  54 /  30  80  30  60
Borger TX                  80  59  80  63 /  20  70  50  60
Boys Ranch TX              79  58  80  60 /  30  80  60  50
Canyon TX                  78  58  77  60 /  10  80  70  50
Clarendon TX               78  59  75  63 /   0  70  70  40
Dalhart TX                 75  54  78  56 /  40  80  30  60
Guymon OK                  74  54  77  57 /  20  80  40  70
Hereford TX                80  59  79  60 /  10  80  70  40
Lipscomb TX                76  58  77  62 /  10  60  40  80
Pampa TX                   76  59  76  62 /  10  70  60  60
Shamrock TX                78  59  77  64 /   0  60  60  60
Wellington TX              79  61  78  65 /   0  60  60  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98