Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
392 FXUS64 KAMA 020519 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1219 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Precipitation chances remain low until they increase late this week. - Temperatures in the 90s are expected to return Wednesday, but highs will drop below average later this week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 It`s another great day of weather in the Panhandles, as we enjoy a slight drop in temperatures behind a weak front. Light north winds in its wake will keep highs in the 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week by far as rising heights aloft lead to warming 850mb temps. Resulting afternoon temperatures will leave the Panhandles with a late taste of Summer, as highs reach the low 90s. Locations within the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon will even have medium chances to exceed 95 degrees. Overnight into Thursday, model guidance shows a back door front pushing in from the northeast, pulling higher low-level moisture with it, which could be sufficient to produce some light showers. However, forcing along this front will be rather weak leading to meager 15-20% probabilities for measurable rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s each night. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Model data mostly agrees that the synoptic pattern will fail to provide any weather maker to the region on Thursday, maintaining highs in the 80s to low 90s. The pattern takes a bit of a turn to end the week into the weekend, when global models show an upper level low crossing from the Pacific to the western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft ahead of this system will allow another cold front to arrive on Friday, bringing a more significant cool down to the region into the weekend. This front along with the approaching upper level system will pull a stronger fetch of moisture to the southern Plains, increasing precipitation probabilities while maintaining below average temperatures. Recent runs of the GFS are coming in with a stronger low lifting over the Panhandles by Sunday, which would have the ability to greatly improve deep layer moisture advection (PWATs >1.5"). Even less aggressive guidance have seen an uptick in rainfall outputs into next week. These trends have been fluctuating, but precipitation opportunities are likely to increase during this time frame. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions are likely at all sites throughout the period. Winds will be light out of the east-northeast for a majority of the next 24 hrs as they turn around the dial. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38