151
FXUS64 KAMA 081147
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

- Impactful winter weather continues for western Cimarron and far
  northwest Dallam counties today, with 5-10 inches of additional
  wet snow possible wherever precipitation stays snow rather than
  rain.

- Widespread showers & storms will persist across the remainder of
  the Panhandles into the afternoon and evening hours, with an
  additional 1-2 inches of rain possible.

- Heaviest rain is expected across the east-southeast Texas
  Panhandle, where multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to
  some flooding concerns.

- Quieter, drier weather returns this weekend into next week
  across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Satellite and mesoanalysis observations show the core of a closed
H500 low churning over western New Mexico as of 08z, gradually
nudging northeast towards the Panhandles. Waves of energy ahead of
the low continue to generate rounds of showers lifting from south
to north over the area, with just enough instability for
occasional thunder at times. Surface observations show even the
coldest areas of the far northwest Panhandles above freezing this
morning, likely receiving rain rather than snow for now. Marginal
temperatures will support a rain/snow mix for much of the day,
transitioning fully to rain or snow at any given point. As the
closed low draws nearer, temperature profiles will cool further,
especially with any wrap around moisture later this afternoon &
evening as the low departs, providing additional snowfall to
Cimarron and NW Dallam counties. By the end of the day, another
6-12 inches of snow may have fallen over areas such as Texline,
Boise City, and Kenton, which already received several inches of
accumulations yesterday. Breezy wind gusts over 30-40 mph will
also serve to further degrade visibility, combined with already
slick roads, making travel extremely difficult and highly
discouraged across impacted locations of the far NW combined
Panhandles into NE New Mexico.

Further south and east, the aforementioned rounds of cold rain
and storms look to provide additional rainfall totals of
0.50-1.50", thanks to the moist air mass in place. The richest
moisture resides over the eastern Panhandles, where observed PWAT
values exceed 1.0-1.25". CAMs depict prolonged rounds of training
convection over these areas through the day, generating another
1.50-2.50" on top of what`s already soaked into the ground
yesterday and overnight. These factors provide concern for
flooding potential across the east-southeast Texas Panhandle,
where a Flood Watch is in effect through 6 PM this evening.

As the system passes overhead and lifts northward, a pronounced
dry slot will filter in atop the High Plains, ending all
precipitation form southwest to northeast through the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will drop near or below freezing
overnight, especially across the western Panhandles, where
frost/freeze products may be needed. Temperatures look to rebound
nicely in the 50s to low 60s tomorrow thanks to sunny skies, with
lower temperatures in the 40s forecast wherever heavy snowpack
remains. Frost/freeze products may be needed Sat night-Sun
morning, when the northwest half of the CWA will have a high
probability (>70%) to drop below 32 degrees once again.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

There are no meaningful changes to address for the long term
period, as an inconsequential weather pattern settles in over the
region. A gradual warming trend should take place next week with
highs in the 50s and 60s, possibly reaching the 70s in the south
on Tuesday. This trend will only briefly be interrupted by a weak
cold front Wednesday, leading to a chilly thursday morning. A
couple days could be slightly on the breezy side, thanks to a
subtle trough passage Tue-Wed, but overall winds should be quite
tame for Panhandle standards. Deep layer moisture will be scarce
throughout the period, meaning precipitation will be hard to find
for some time.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast at all sites this morning
through 18z. Precipitation will continue gradually lifting south
to north today, bringing low ceilings, reduced visibility, and
occasional thunder. Dalhart could even see snow showers mix in
later this evening after 00z, so a PROB30 group has been included.
Ceilings will likely bounce in and out of categories at times
until clouds move out overnight, so amendments may be needed.
Winds will be breezy out of the north at 15-25 kts, becoming more
westerly at 10-15 kts through the end of the period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  33  59  33 /  90  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  49  33  57  31 / 100  50   0   0
Boise City OK              36  28  46  26 / 100  60   0   0
Borger TX                  50  35  61  33 / 100  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              43  31  57  30 / 100  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  48  31  59  30 /  90   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               54  35  62  36 /  90   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  27  52  25 / 100  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  31  56  29 / 100  40   0   0
Hereford TX                46  31  60  30 /  90   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  36  59  33 / 100  30   0   0
Pampa TX                   50  35  59  34 / 100  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                57  36  63  36 / 100  10   0   0
Wellington TX              60  36  65  36 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ005-010-014-015-
     018>020-317.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ006.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38