901
FXUS64 KAMA 010552
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
 holiday week with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm
 could produce very heavy rain leading to localized flooding.

-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms for the holiday will
 see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower
 90s.

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the
 holiday weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and
 Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

As of late tonight, latest satellite and radar imagery was seeing
showers develop just a county our two south of the Panhandles.
Latest CAM analysis does suggest that some of these shower could
sneak their way into the southern Panhandles for the overnight.
However, confidence has been low in these chances as latest 0Z
sounding and present cloud cover suggests the atmosphere is well
capped for the night. Still, we could see a weak shower slide in
as it is dissipating, so have left some chances of precipitation
for the overnight. Regardless, tomorrow will see a more stagnate
pattern push in with model agreement seeing a new upper-level high
pressure system move in. Active weather still remains possible
for the afternoon as the building high pressure looks to shift the
present axis of moisture to our south further north. This will
allow for our PWAT values to jump back to values above 1.5 inches
again, which, with the aid of a little instability, can create
heavy rainfall across the southern Panhandles. However on the
severe side of things, latest CAMs are not too enthusiastic with
most projecting MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg and little to no
effective bulk shear to keep storms organized. Regardless, this
process looks to repeat on Wednesday with a trough starting to
come onshore along the West Coast to give us a little extra nudge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Progressing into Thursday and the holiday weekend will see the
main upper-level trough push across the Western United States and
break down the present high pressure system. This initial troughs
will help provide enough instability to keep 15 to 30% chances of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. As for
severe chances, potential is present with the trough opening us up
to slightly better wind shear, but the actual scale is still a
bit too far out to get the full scope. Thankfully a brief break
does look to follow for the Independence Day Holiday with the exit
of the incoming trough. However, more chances look for follow
that weekend with a secondary trough following Saturday into
Sunday. Of course these chances will also come with the threat of
severe weather, but confidence is mixed given the necessary
mesoscale factors are not too clear at this time. Regardless these
chances will aid in keeping temperature down with afternoon highs
staying in the 80s to low 90s clear into the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites with winds generally 5
to 15 kts out of the east to southeast. PROB30s have all been
pulled from the TAFs as confidence is decreasing in storms,
especially for KGUY and KDHT. Still doesn`t mean showers/storms
aren`t possible, but at this time will either reintroduce them at
the 12z issuance if confidence increases, or we`ll deal with via
amendments. Overall, the time for storms to start would be 15z
onward, but again, low confidence, so no mention.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89