Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
295 FXUS64 KAMA 311120 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 520 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 424 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Nice weather and above normal temperatures can be expected with highs in the 60s and 70s for the better part of the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Very pleasant weather is expected through New Years Eve as an upper- level ridge begins to build from the Southwestern US into the southern High Plains ahead of a trough that has been residing off the coast of California. Highs will be in the low to mid-60s across the Panhandles. A weak backdoor cold front, associated with a clipper that will push through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, could move into the northeastern combined Panhandles Wednesday night. A split flow regime will set up across North America on Thursday with a well-defined polar jet reaching into Canada and ultimately diving southeast across the Midwest, while there`s a southern stream stretching from southern California through Texas. This southern stream will bring in a widespread, potentially mid-level cloud deck owing to its Pacific origins. Meanwhile, a subtle disturbance in the southern stream will help develop a surface low in northeastern New Mexico on Thursday which should result in breezy winds in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Despite the mid-level cloud deck, the NBM still has the southwestern half of the combined Panhandles getting into the mid to upper-60s with some pockets of low-70s. However, some guidance has a mid-level cloud deck so thick that there could even be some areas of virga. Therefore, depending on just how long this thick mid-level cloud deck sticks around, the NBM highs could be too warm. But if it does become thinner in the afternoon like some guidance suggests, the breezy downsloping winds could indeed help bring temperatures up to where the NBM has the highs. Will leave the highs alone for now given that uncertainty. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1112 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A shortwave trough will be moving toward the Panhandles from the Desert Southwest on Friday as a surface low southeast of the Panhandles continues to move off to the east. This will leave our area behind a cold front, but the latest NBM keeps highs in the upper-50s to 60s. There is some uncertainty concerning the high temperatures for Friday as a stronger system will lead to a cooler airmass. Regardless, warmer than normal temperatures are currently favored for Friday since the truly seasonably cool/cold air will be locked up to our north. An upper-level ridge will build over the Great Plains this weekend resulting in a warming trend with temperatures reaching well into the 60s on Saturday and 70s on Sunday. Will also be watching for records on Sunday: Borger currently has a 75% chance to tie or break the record high at that site (71 degrees), Amarillo has 50% chance (record is 74 degrees), and Dalhart has a <5% chance (record is 76 degrees). Model guidance uncertainty increases significantly going into next week, particularly regarding a potential trough that moves into the Western US. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light westerly winds will peak at around 10 to 15 knots this afternoon before becoming light and variable again this evening. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...07