549
FXUS64 KAMA 061738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across
  the far western combined Panhandles this evening.

- Temperatures to remain above average through the week, in the
  90s for afternoon highs.

- Watching for a low (10-20%) to moderate (30-50%) chance for
  showers and thunderstorms across the central to northern
  combined Panhandles Tue night through Fri nigth. Best chances
  and coverage appear to be Wed into Thu for much of the combined
  Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current satellite obs show a mid to upper level low sitting over
Maine and another over Oregon. Between these two troughs lies a
steep ridge over the Central Plains to include the combined
Panhandles. Some atmospheric moisture present contributing to
partly cloudy skies, along with slightly cooler H85 temperatures,
are expected to contribute to cooler afternoon highs this
afternoon. Cooler by at least by 2 to 5 degrees. Still above
average in the mid upper 90s. This afternoon negative H7 theta-e
advection is expected in the eastern Panhandles while the west
stays with positive advection. This will keep a slight chance pops
for the west going into the evening.

Monday, expect similar temperatures as high pressure continues to
sit over the region. Precipitation becomes less likely for Monday as
mid level disturbances remain displaced to the west and northwest
of the combined Panhandles. At this time do not have mentionable
pops in for Kenton, OK, but will not rule out the potential for
needing to add slight chance PoPs to the far northwestern combined
Panhandles for Monday evening. Otherwise the rest of the
Panhandles should remain dry for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The aforementioned low in the short term discussion is progged to
traverse the US/Canada border through the week. This will
suppress the mid to upper level ridge and keep temperatures mainly
in the 90s. It will also introduce a shortwave trough starting
Tuesday night with PoPs returning to the far northwest Panhandles.
With each subsequent evening expanding PoPs across more and more
of the Panhandles. Anywhere between 20 to 40 PoPs. As the main
brunt of the trough comes over Thu, afternoon temperatures may be
the coolest for the week, in the lower to mid 90s, with the
exception of warm places off the caprock reaching 99.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions with south to southeast winds are expected to
prevail. Winds will either be south to southeasterly up to around
15 kts. Showers and thunderstorms this evening should remain west
of the terminals, but be prepared for potential amendments,
especially for KDHT and KGUY going into 00Z Monday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03