718
FXUS64 KAMA 290448
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. There is a very low chance for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees is expected
  throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we
  head into the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The stagnant large-scale weather pattern will continue into Monday:
an upper-level ridge will be centered over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley with a longwave trough over the Western US with embedded
shortwaves rotating around the base. A surface low will develop in
eastern Colorado as a surface trough once again pushes east through
the Panhandles, and it should settle in the eastern or central
Panhandles by late afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be between
what was observed on Saturday and Sunday, which backs up roughly
what the NBM is giving; upper-90s to low-100s. Can`t entirely rule
out an isolated 105 degree reading, but an additional limiting
factor for seeing more widespread 100s is that cirrus is favored
across a chunk of the central and eastern Panhandles in the
afternoon. That should mostly hold temperatures in check, and it
appears that a heat advisory will not be needed for Monday.

Unlike the past few days, there will be a weak and subtle shortwave
that should provide sufficient mid-level forcing (PVA) for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop, particularly in the vicinity
of the surface trough. Forecast soundings with initial development
show modest CAPE within a well-mixed thermodynamic profile, and weak
wind shear (effective shear 10-15 kts). As storms progress eastward
into greater moisture and instability, storms will intensify with an
increasing threat for small hail. Storms should begin weakening
after sunset, but showers and isolated thunderstorms could persist
until around Midnight before fully dissipating. Overall, can`t
entirely rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph, but the threat is lower
than previous days.

Tuesday, expecting scattered cirrus to move across the Panhandles
through the day. Meanwhile, the surface trough is unlikely to mix
much further east than the far western Panhandles. These factors,
combined with cooler 850mb temperatures, will result in temperatures
more into the low/mid-90s across the southern and eastern
Panhandles, and mid/upper-90s across the west and north. By the late
afternoon hours, a negatively tilted 700mb shortwave trough is
favored to cross through southeastern Colorado which should kick off
a wave of convection across the Panhandles. Virga with strong winds
will be possible west of the surface trough, but any convection that
moves across or develops east of the surface trough will strengthen.
There should be modest speed shear associated with this system which
could allow for some tilt in the storms, suggesting a threat for at
least small hail. Any severe threat will depend on the magnitude of
instability that ultimately develops, which will also depend on the
quality of low-level moisture. Therefore, cannot rule out strong to
severe thunderstorms but there are details that need to be worked
out. Shower and/or thunderstorm activity could linger through a
portion of Tuesday night.

Vanden Bosch


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The Western US trough will be situated further east compared to
previous days, placing the Panhandles more within the 40-60 kt 300mb
jet and 20-40 kts at 500mb. Another shortwave trough could skirt the
northwestern Panhandles later in the afternoon and encourage
thunderstorms to develop. There should be scattered mid/upper-level
clouds across much of the area, but still should be able to see 1000-
2000 J/kg MLCAPE come to fruition. Effective shear looks weak at
this time, around 10-20 kts despite the decent upper-level speed
shear. Still, could see some strong winds and small hail across the
area. Heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorm, especially in
the east; can`t rule out localized flooding.

The persistent Western US trough is expected to lift northward
Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing the ridge to expand westward
to encompass the Panhandles. This will cut off any meaningful
precipitation chances and will embark the area on a warming trend.
Currently expecting highs to reach into the upper-90s to mid-100s
for the 4th of July.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Low-level
wind shear is ongoing at all terminals and will continue through
around sunrise. Thunderstorms will be possible at Amarillo, but
the timing is somewhat uncertain at this time; could be as early
as 21z, but as late as 02z. Most likely time will be somewhere
in the middle of that window. Cannot rule out thunderstorms at
Guymon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52