198
FXUS64 KAMA 212301
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
601 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

-Repeat rounds of heavy rain Sunday through next week may brig
 flooding potential, along with below average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

As seen on the latest 18Z water vapor satellite data and RAOB
data, stacked dry airmass throughout the Panhandles region, in-
conjunction with (-) H850-700 theta-e advection support large
scale subsidence in the column. Along with the main H500 high
pressure system centered over the Four Corners Region with NE mid
level flow, dry conditions should continue throughout the short
term forecast period. High temperatures tomorrow will be near
average with values in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The first half of the coming weekend should start off with
seasonal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and with dry
conditions. Latest 21/12Z model and numerical guidance are in some
agreement with daily mentionable POPs Sunday through the remainder
of the forecast period. Analysis of the latest total QPF from Sun
through Wed shows around 50-55% of GFS ensemble members, and
25-30% of ECMWF AIFS ensemble members gives widespread rainfall
totals across all of the Panhandles of at least 2" for this
forecast period. This synoptic favorable set up is due to the main
H500 high with its center shifting from the Four Corners region,
into the Texas Hill Country by mid week. NW mid level flow, aided
by perturbation within the main flow, along with ample deep
moisture transport profiles will support diurnally driven rain
chances, with a few rumbles of thunder from time to time. With
repeat rounds of rainfall, especially across the northern combined
Panhandles, we will watch closely for flooding potential
throughout early to mid next week. With persistent rain chances,
and a stalled front in the region next week, after near average
temperatures on Sunday, well below average temperatures are
expected throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions and generally light winds will remain across the
panhandles and at all terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98