414
FXUS64 KAMA 272328
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Breezy northeast winds and dry conditions will result in
  critical Fire Weather for most of the Panhandles through 8PM.

- Breezy southwest winds and dry conditions in the northwest
  Panhandles will result in critical Fire Weather conditions on
  Saturday.

- Fire Weather the rest of the forecast will remain elevated given
  the very dry fuels and above normal temperatures, limit
  activities that can cause a fire.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Winds remain breezy out of the northwest early this evening across
the Panhandles. Wind gusts continue to decrease, but remain in the
20-30 mph range. These winds are resulting in Red Flag Threat
Index values of 1-2 which continues the critical fire weather
threat. Winds will be around 10-15 mph or less by 8-10 PM this
evening and the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at that
point. Only minor edits were made to the ongoing forecast, most
notably for sky cover as mid level clouds are prevalent across
much of the area.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Strong pressure gradient that accompanied the front last night
continues to gradually relax and winds are taking their time to
come down. While the overall temperature is in the 40s and will
climb into the 50s this afternoon and evening, the wind chill will
be much cooler, as it`s currently still in the 30s. Despite the
wind chill, the air temperature is warming and the we are drying
out so the afternoon relative humidity dropping in the low 20s to
teens, with winds still in the 20-25 mph range will support
critical Fire Weather to continue (See Fire Weather Section). With
cooler highs today in place, and the cold air still lingering
over the Panhandles tonight, we are looking at overnight lows in
the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wind chills should not be too bad
tomorrow morning as we do expect fairly light overnight winds, but
some of the colder spots could get down around 20 with the wind
chills in the northern Panhandles.

Overall, the high pressure that brought us these very warm
temperatures the past few days, really hasn`t gone anywhere, it`s
just the strong cold air push from the system that was over the
great lakes, interrupted our warm.  That pocket of colder air will
still remain and modify the airmass under the high pressure over the
Panhandles for Saturday.  It will be eroded out by Sunday, but for
the time being we`ll only see highs in the mid 60s in the southeast
to lower 70s in the northwest, as warmer air is working into the
Panhandles from the west. We`ll be looking at the northwest
Panhandles winds picking up in the 20-25 mph range on Saturday
afternoon which will support critical Fire Weather, mainly due to a
lee surface low in eastern CO, providing just enough of a surface
gradient to cause us some breezy conditions. Currently do not
anticipate winds strong enough for any highlights, as gusts are
expected to be around 25-35 mph with the far northwest maybe seeing
40-45 mph gusts.  Winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range through
the overnight hours on Saturday night which supports a mild Sunday
morning where lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

High pressure will dominate the Panhandles again Sunday through at
least Monday night and possibly Tuesday.  Very warm temperatures in
the upper 80s to mid 90s will be possible.  Tuesday is in question
as a cold front is expected to arrive mid week, and right now it
looks to be on Tuesday during the day which has the highs split in
the 80s to the south and 70s to the north.  The faster or slow this
front tracks will have an impact on the highs for the day, or if it
becomes more of a possible Critical Fire Weather day. Wednesday is
projected to be cooler with highs in the 60s a a low chance of pops
(~20%).  Not too exciting as this looks like a dry slot situation,
followed by warmer air returning on Thursday with highs back in the
mid 70s to lower 80s.  All that being said, if the right conditions
occur, and the weather system that moves in tracks a certain way,
there is a path to possible rain, or maybe even some storms on
Wednesday, however given the 20% pops, the 80% chance of not getting
anything seems to be the more likely scenario at this time.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF issuance. Winds will
decrease over the next few hours and will rotate clockwise
overnight, with winds eventually being out of the south by near
sunrise. Winds will increase by late morning to early afternoon on
Saturday, with gusts upwards of 30-35 kts at KDHT and KGUY out of
the south to southwest. Mid level clouds will remain in place for
the first half of this TAF cycle before clearing out.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

We continue to have north northeast winds on the back side of the
cold front this afternoon.  Those winds will start to come down over
time, but are still expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range
through 4pm, and over 20 mph through 7pm.  Thereafter the winds will
turn east and really start to relax to less than 10 mph as we head
toward midnight.  Given the very dry fuels (>90th percentile) the
winds are still enough to support critical Fire Weather.  The
concern was more for any active fires when the winds were higher,
but now that they are coming down, it`s still more of an IA concern,
that any new starts could still spread quickly at least through
early evening.  If a new fire starts later in the day, be aware of
the winds coming around the clock to where they become more
southerly by morning.  By mid to late morning on Saturday they will
begin to ramp up in the northwest Panhandles.  This will be strong
enough, and with mild conditions tomorrow we`ll likely see some
critical Fire Weather in the northern Panhandles with RFTI`s in the
2-3 range, and that`s all it takes with fuels this dry.

Moving forward, we will remain elevated to near critical for the
remainder of the forecast period as very warm and dry conditions
will return Sunday through Tuesday.   Will not rule out the critical
conditions, but overall, that would just be due to any localized
areas that might have winds that over perform.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>005.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05