019
FXUS64 KAMA 032345
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Intermittent showers continue tonight through tomorrow across
  much of the combined Panhandles.

- Chances for snow or at least a rain/snow mix increase Friday
  night through Saturday, especially across the western to central
  Panhandles.

- Very cold wind chills for April standards will exist Saturday
  and Sunday mornings, with single digit wind chills possible for
  northwest counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today is one of the rare instances where we found ourselves
retaining a lot more moisture across the Panhandles than just
about any model had previously indicated, helping to prolong our
light showers across much of the area. Across the northwest
Panhandles, clearing skies have allowed approx ~250 J/kg of MUCAPE
to develop in conjunction with 30-40 kt bulk shear. This elevated
instability and sufficient shear could support a 30-50% chance
for some spotty thunderstorms to develop in the area this
afternoon, with lightning and gusty winds. Drier air will briefly
filter in and put a pause on precipitation this evening, but
moisture will quickly be replenished by strong H700 theta-e
advection and mid-level lift overnight.

Expect very similar conditions tomorrow morning through much of
the day, although greater synoptic forcing from the approaching
upper level storm system and increasing PWATs should lead to even
more efficient and widespread rain production across the CWA.
Another brief break in the action is likely tomorrow evening as
the low approaches the Trans Pecos region of Texas, before it
lifts northeastward across the High Plains on Saturday. By this
point in the event, models agree many locations in the forecast
area will likely have received about 1/4 to 3/4 inches of rain
since this morning. But the best precip may have yet to come,
arriving along and behind a cold frontal passage Friday night into
Saturday, providing a change over to snow or at least a rain-snow
mix for the western to central Panhandles.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An admittedly tricky forecast will ensue on Saturday, when
portions of the western to central Panhandles will have the
potential for heavy snow, while others in the same areas could
see little to no snow at all. Timing the arrival of cold air with
the front and upper level low will be crucial in getting rain to
fully transition to snow Saturday morning, which in turn will
effect final snow amounts. Eastern Portions of the Panhandles
are favored to maintain rain or a rain-snow mix throughout the
event, with much lighter (if any) snow accumulations forecast.

Unfortunately, model guidance is still all over the place
regarding the strength, timing, and track of the low, so we may
not have a more clear picture of what to expect until the low
approaches the Rockies tomorrow. If the low slows down and tracks
further south as indicated by recent runs of the NAM and Euro, we
could see a delayed onset of winter weather and lighter snow
totals, similarly to the March 8 event last month. In this
scenario, we would actually see warmer air move infiltrate the
northern Panhandles from Kansas, with colder air and heaviest
snow staying shunted to our south (closer to Lubbock). If the low
lifts further north closer to the Panhandles Saturday morning -
afternoon like the GFS and Canadian suggest, then the western to
central Panhandles (especially south of the Canadian River Valley)
could have ripe conditions for heavier bands of snow to develop.
1-3 inches of accumulations would be realistic through the day,
with 40-70% probabilities to exceed 4" if everything comes
together just right. Thankfully, we have high confidence that
moisture should not be a limiting factor (as reinforced by the
unexpected presence of abundant moisture today), and a vast
majority of the forecast area has great odds to receive 0.5-1.5"
of liquid precip by Saturday night.

Regardless, be prepared for potentially hazardous driving
conditions due to reduced visibility in heavy and wind driven
snowfall, along with the potential for slick roadways underneath
any heavier bands. Breezy north winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph will create anomalously cold wind chills for this time
of year, dropping "feels like" temperatures in the teens and 20s
Sat and Sun mornings, especially across the NW Panhandles (10-30%
chance for single digit wind chills). We`ll warm up nicely next
week once the system departs, leaving precipitation chances behind
while highs in the 70s and 80s return to the forecast as early as
Tuesday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

As of this evening, latest radar and satellite was still seeing
light showers across the Panhandles with some isolated
thunderstorms present in the far Northwest. Based off the latest
CAMs these showers are expected to tapper off and weaken further
with the loss of daytime heating, which will keep impacts to
terminals mostly to vicinity showers. However, look for activity
to pick up once again around the midnight timeframe with the initial
push of the expected system bringing in higher amounts of
moisture. This will result in rain shower slowly building in
throughout the overnight with high confidence of cloud decks and
visibility dropping down to MVFR to brief IFR levels by tomorrow
morning. Showers are likely to continue throughout Friday with a
potential to transition to snow moving into Saturday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  56  31  37 /  80  70 100 100
Beaver OK                  40  56  29  44 /  70  80  90  70
Boise City OK              36  52  23  40 /  20  70 100  70
Borger TX                  43  60  31  41 /  70  70 100  90
Boys Ranch TX              42  56  29  39 /  50  70 100 100
Canyon TX                  41  55  30  37 /  80  70 100 100
Clarendon TX               43  58  35  41 /  90  80 100 100
Dalhart TX                 37  54  23  38 /  30  70 100  90
Guymon OK                  38  55  26  42 /  40  70  90  70
Hereford TX                40  54  29  35 /  80  70 100 100
Lipscomb TX                42  56  32  41 /  70  80  90  80
Pampa TX                   42  57  32  40 /  80  80 100  90
Shamrock TX                43  58  35  43 /  90  80  90  90
Wellington TX              43  60  36  45 /  90  80  90  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11