734
FXUS64 KAMA 240638
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
138 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Monday`s showers and thunderstorms proved the monsoonal nature of
the pattern we currently find ourselves in, with a few locations
receiving 1-3+ inches of rainfall. Thankfully, weak instability and
shear will prevent another severe threat today, but very high
moisture content will support a smattering of convection across at
least the western Panhandles again today (20-50% POPs). Recent runs
of the HRRR have suggested activity may spread further east across
the central Panhandles through the day, likely due to the stout
700mb moisture axis, but most models agree that strongest lift from
an area of PVA should limit areal extent closer to the TX-NM state
line. Wednesday looks to hold more of the same in terms of precip
chances, along with highs in the 80s to low 90s similar to this
afternoon. PWAT values should remain in the 1-1.50" range the next
couple of days, further exacerbating the potential for localized
flooding from torrential rainfall.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Synoptically, the upper level pattern won`t change all that much
through the long term period, with the High Plains stuck between
ridging to the east and troughing to the west. Moisture continues
being funneled northward to the region, generating daily PWAT values
near or above the 90th percentile of climatology for Amarillo (1-
1.50"). Model data show Thursday bringing another day of scattered
convection with another subtle disturbance passing overhead. We
should see some breaks in the action though, especially Fri-Sat when
POPs fall below 15% area wide due to ridging retreating westward
back towards the Panhandles. Ensembles show the monsoon resuming
next week with multiple disturbances helping kick start daily
convective opportunities (20-40% POPs). Conditions don`t appear too
favorable for severe weather, but anomalously high moisture content
will keep supporting heavy rain threats. Temperatures throughout
this stretch look to be near seasonal averages in the mid 80s to low
90s.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Showers will continue overnight primarily around KGUY and KAMA,
with lower but non zero chances near KDHT. Higher shower and storm
chances transition to KDHT later this afternoon, so have
maintained the PROB30 group. Amendments may be needed to account
for stray precipitation throughout the period. Otherwise, expect
mid-level cloud decks and south winds of 10-20 kts with slightly
higher gusts this afternoon.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38