Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
624 FXUS64 KAMA 271747 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 - Cold overnight lows in the teens to single digits continue tonight. - After a brief midweek warm up, cooler temperatures and very low precipitation chances return later this week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 A weak surface boundary passed over the Panhandles last night, leaving light north-northeast winds in its wake today. Despite some increased cloud cover, temperatures are expected to warm further into the 40s and should continue to aid snow melt. Clearing skies and light winds will support overnight lows dropping to the teens yet again tonight. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week for a majority of the Panhandles as we sit in between systems, positioning a weak and short-lived upper level ridge atop the Plains. Warming 850 mb temps will help highs be right around seasonal averages in the low to mid 50s, aside from any cool spots in the southeast due to the last gasp of lingering snow pack. Another weak trough within northwest flow will allow a cold front to dive across the Panhandles Thursday, sending breezy north winds of 15-25 mph our way, with gusts up to 35 mph upon its arrival. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 The aforementioned front will arrive with more bark than bite, as Thursday and Friday`s temperatures remain only slightly changed compared to Wednesday (5 to 10 degrees cooler). Friday into the weekend, models show a deepening Great Lakes trough cutting off into a closed low as it swings across the eastern CONUS. This would likely clip the High Plains with the western periphery of this large system, sending a weak disturbance and stronger push of cold air our way behind a reinforcing front on Friday. Precipitation potential is heavily in doubt for our forecast area with this system, as the position of both the trough and moisture axes appear less than ideal. The NBM continues to decrease the already meager 10-15% POPs for Friday, but can`t rule out some light flurries and snow based on forecast sounding temperature profiles. If precip does materialize it would likely be of inconsequential amounts. Warming trends quickly resume next week after the system ejects, with a more amplified H500 ridge settling in by Monday. Highs will be above average in the 50s and 60s Sun-Tue, and dry conditions are favored for a majority of this time frame. However, there are some contingents among long range deterministic and ensemble model outputs supporting moisture return with a hypothetical disturbance around next Tue-Wed. Guidance is still all over the place regarding this hypothetical outcome, but there is enough data for now to support 20-30% POPs in the forecast. We will have to keep an eye on temperature and moisture profiles as well as the evolution of the system as we get closer before messaging frozen vs liquid precipitation, if we receive any precipitation at all. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs with only some high level cloud decks. Winds will be light out of the north this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight into tomorrow. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38