898
FXUS64 KAMA 111824
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
124 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Hot temperatures into the 90s by Tuesday with maybe some areas
  like PDC reaching 100, these hot temperatures potentially last
  through midweek.

- Breezy winds and dry conditions have the potential to return on
  Thursday which can lead to critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A high pressure system is building across the southern plains
today and then will sit across the southern plains through the mid
week. This is bringing calm weather and sunny conditions to the
panhandles for both today and Tuesday. The gradient associated
with the high pressure is going to be fairly weak. This will
result in mainly breezy daytime winds across the panhandles for
both days while the overnight sees weak winds. The largest impact
the panhandles will see from this high pressure system is the
rapid increase in heat. This heating will see the high reach
mainly in the 70s to 80s for today and then mainly the 90s for
Tuesday. A few of the hottest areas such as the Canadian River
Valley or Palo Duro Canyon can reach 100-102. This represent
about a 10 to 20 degree increase in temperatures for each day.
This heat is such that the highs on Tuesday will get close to or
even tie some of the record high temperatures. This early season
heat can pose a moderate risk for heat illness, mainly for those
more sensitive to heat or those without sufficient hydration or
cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Wednesday the high pressure system has a high chance of moving to
the east of the southern plains. This will be followed by a broad
weather system starting to move into the Great Plains from the
west. The trade off of weather system would most likely lead to a
slight decrease in the temperatures on Wednesday with highs still
remaining in the 90s. The skies will most likely start to see
increasing cloud cover as cirrus starts to stream across the sky.

Then come Thursday the weather system has a high chance of moving
across the Great Plains. The passage of this weather system will
have a high chance of causing a tighter pressure gradient across
the southern plains. This in turn will lead to breezy south to
southwest winds across the panhandles for much of Thursday. These
winds would drive in drier air and hot air across the panhandles.
The combination of the dry and breezy conditions is such the
elevated to critical fire weather conditions seems likely for
Thursday. The hot air being moved in by the winds will most likely
lead to an increase in the temperatures with there being another
chance for 100 degree heat. The passage of the weather system has
the potential of bringing limited moisture to the panhandles. This
in turn is allowing for a very low chance for afternoon rain
showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. Even if one of
these does occur the limited moisture will make any accumulation
of rainfall very limited.

The weather system has a moderate chance of departing eastward on
Friday leading to calmer, but still hot, weather conditions.

This weekend and into next week has building confidence that the
weather pattern will shift to a more active one. This shift would
allow for an increase in the amount of weather system, and thus
rain chances, that can impact the southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Expect breezy winds during the daytime hours and
light winds during the overnight at all terminals.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98