Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
121 FXUS64 KAMA 011739 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1139 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions possible for the southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and Friday afternoon. - Low chance for light rain showers or sprinkles this evening and Friday afternoon into the evening. - Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday/Wednesday before a pattern change may lead to more active weather towards the later half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 Upper level ridging is forecast to break down throughout the short term forecast period as a H300 low pressure system moves over California into Nevada today through Friday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are still possible for Deaf Smith county this afternoon as west winds become breezy. Given the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft, Pacific moisture is moving over the region today. That moisture is quite evident this morning with all of the cloud cover that is currently in place and will remain over the region into the overnight hours. A weak H500 shortwave may generate some light rain showers this evening, mainly over the eastern Panhandles. However, there is still a lot of dry air in the lower levels so odds are most of the light rain will evaporate but cannot rule out some drops reaching the surface during the evening. Rinse and repeat scenario is in store for Friday as temperatures are nearly the same as today but with less cloud cover as the mid to upper levels dry out. Winds will be light for most areas once again, with the exception once again being the southwestern Texas Panhandle where elevated fire weather may once again arise. The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to weaken as it approaches the Rockies on Friday but will still have quite a bit of PVA associated with it as it moves across the Panhandles during the afternoon into the evening. Enough moisture may linger in the mid levels to generate another round of light showers moving from northwest to southeast during this time frame. In fact, the CAMs are picking up on this activity and are generating fast moving rain showers across the Panhandles for tomorrow. There still will be quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels so not much rain accumulation should be expected, but the chance for at least some to reach the ground appears higher tomorrow than it does tonight. The rain showers quickly dissipate going into Friday night and the dry and warm pattern returns going into the weekend. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 There is a high chance that a high pressure ridge builds back in over the southern High Plains from Saturday through at least Tuesday or Wednesday. This pattern suggests that dry and warm conditions persist through this time period. Highs should generally be in the 60s to 70s into the middle of next week with winds being light to breezy on any of these days. An upper level trough is forecast to quickly dig south and push onshore from the Pacific towards California/Baja California in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame next week. There are obviously timing, strength, and location differences in the guidance this far out, but the fact that there is agreement in a very notable pattern change is exciting to see. Precipitation and cooler temperatures would be possible late next week given the pattern change. Another possible solution results in strong winds, slightly cooler conditions, and lower chances for precip. In any case, it appears that the potential for active weather (whether it be fire weather, rain showers, or winter weather) is increasing for the later half of next week. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours. Light winds around 10 kts or less are expected at each of the terminals along with high clouds remaining over the region. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05