787
FXUS64 KAMA 250822
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
222 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

- There is a 10-20% chance for light rain and/or light snow in the
northwestern Panhandles Wednesday evening and into Thanksgiving
morning. At this time, any snow totals are favored to stay under  an
inch, but could still cause hazardous travel conditions for  those
traveling for the holiday.

- Cannot entirely rule out snow making it as far south as  Amarillo,
but the probability at this time is very low (<5%).

- Wind chills in the teens to low-20s are expected across the
  Panhandles from Thursday night through at least Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

A cold front has passed through the Panhandles leaving cold
temperatures and breezy northerly winds in its wake. Expecting highs
today to stay below average for late November today as the breezy
overnight winds gradually weaken and turn southerly through tonight
as a surface high moves off to the east.

Tuesday, a potent shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow aloft will
move across the Colorado Rockies, kicking off lee cyclogenesis in
southeastern CO/northeastern NM. This lee surface low, combined with
the surface high in the Lower Ohio Valley, will lead to a steep
surface pressure gradient and thus breezy southwesterly winds
through the day... but especially the afternoon. Due to the breezy
downsloping winds, temperatures will quickly rebound into the 60s on
the Caprock and upper-50s off the Caprock. The surface low will move
off to the east and bring a fairly shallow cold front (i.e., doesn`t
reach to 700mb) into the Panhandles later Tuesday night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

A cold front will likely be moving through the Panhandles to start
the long-term, but slowly such that the southern Texas Panhandle
should be able to warm into the 60s. Guidance suggests that a
reinforcing cold front, now evident at 700mb as well, will move in
later Wednesday and help push the cold front out of the area.

A positively tilted shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles
Wednesday night and introduce a low-end potential (10-20%) for light
rain and/or snow showers mostly in the northwestern Panhandles. The
GFS and GEFS ensemble members are most "excited" about at least some
snow in the northwestern combined Panhandles; 20-40% of GEFS members
have at least 0.5" falling in the northwestern Panhandles, even as
far south as northwestern Oldham county and almost as far east as
Dumas. The GEFS also has a 10% chance for at least 0.5" to fall as
far south as Amarillo and Canyon. Meanwhile, the GEPS has a steep
gradient in Cimarron county that goes from around 10% near Boise
City to 30% in the extreme northwestern tip of Cimarron County with
<1% chance elsewhere. Meanwhile, European ensembles are very much
not excited about any snow falling anywhere in the Panhandles,
though some do suggest there will be some light cold rain showers.
One possible factor that leads to the GFS/GEFS being more excited
about some light snow/rain is that it is slower with the initial
cold front on Wednesday which pushes moisture to the south, and is
also slower with the secondary push later on Wednesday. This results
in moisture lingering in the Panhandles longer such that when the
shortwave trough arrives, there is some moisture to tap in to.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/EPS/NAM solution of pushing the cold
front and associated moisture through the Panhandles faster, but
won`t be surprised to see some light snow in the northwestern
Panhandles. Any precipitation that does occur should cease by the
afternoon hours. Expect a chilly Thanksgiving with highs in the 40s.
Lows on Thursday night will be in the 20s across the Panhandles with
wind chills in the teens to low-20s.

The Panhandles will be squarely in northwesterly flow aloft by
Friday. A shortwave trough will approach the Plains from the
northwest with lee cyclogenesis once again occurring on the front
range of the Colorado Rockies. This will lead to breezy southerly
winds with temperatures rebounding into the 50s. A potent cold front
will move in from the north Friday night, leading to a cold weekend
with nighttime wind chills continuing to be in the teens to low-20s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front is currently advancing across the Panhandles from
north to south, bringing breezy north winds of 10-20 kts, with
higher gusts up to 30 kts possible at times. High cloud decks are
also moving in, but sky and visibility conditions will remain
VFR. Winds will subside after 18z at all sites, becoming more
light and variable.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  32  64  48 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  27  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              45  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  49  32  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              49  31  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  48  31  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               50  31  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 47  28  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                49  32  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                48  29  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   47  31  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                51  30  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              52  30  59  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...38