688
FXUS64 KAMA 061730
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Thunderstorms continue today across the central and eastern
  Panhandles with the main threat being heavy rain that can lead
  to flash flooding.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of next week with the
  potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not
  taken for those that are doing activities outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weather system is currently impacting the southern plains
including the panhandles today. This weather system has brought
ample moisture across the region with PWATs upwards of 1.5 inches.
For context this moisture is on the top 10% for this time of
year. The moisture is generally higher in the eastern panhandles
and lower in the western panhandles. The passage of the weather
system is providing ample lift which is allowing rain showers and
thunderstorms to form from the ample moisture. These storms will
persist through the rest of the afternoon and most of the evening.
With such high moisture across the panhandles these thunderstorms
will be fully capable of producing heavy to torrential rainfall.
Using past days with similar conditions, rain rates from the
thunderstorms can be expected to range from 1 inch/hr for weaker
storms to past 5 inch/hr for the strongest storms. Adverse travel
may occur due to the intense nature of the rainfall leading to
low visibilities and wet to flooded roads. Storm motion will most
likely be slow today as there is steering flow aloft ill be weak.
This is allowing for longer residence time for these storms which
means more rain can accumulate in the areas they impact. This
opens the door for flash flooding to occur in the panhandles now
through the evening. The duration for any single storms will most
likely be short as the current environment favors vertically
stacking. So flooding will be greatest in areas the see multiple
thunderstorms within a fairly short time frame. The vertical
nature of the storms also opens the door for storm collapses which
will allow for localized wind gusts that can be damaging. These
storms will either move off to the east or come to an end during
the later evening once the weather system pushes to the northeast.
Once this happens the panhandles will finally close the book on
this period of heavy rainfall that has been occurring over us for
the past week. With all the moisture that has fallen there is a
low chance for mist or fog to form tonight into Sunday morning.
However the chances for this are currently not high enough to
reflect within the forecast.

The weather system will have departed to the northeast by Sunday
with a ridge of high pressure building across the southern plains.
This will bring hotter conditions to the panhandles through
subsidence heating and through warm air advection. This will cause
the highs to jump into the 90s for much of the panhandles with the
potential for some 100s in the hottest spots. Conditions will
become drier as the higher pressure builds across the region.
Still there will be some lingering surface to lower mid level
moisture from the departed weather system. Even with the more
stable conditions the ample heating combined with the lingering
moisture will allow for a very low chance for isolated rain
showers and thunderstorms. Since these will be mainly driven by
daytime heating the most likely time of occurrence will be during
the afternoon and evening. Once the sun set any storm that
managed to form will most likely come to an end. However, the
chances for these storms is low enough that they will not be
reflected within the current forecast package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Monday through early Wednesday will most likely have a ridge of
higher pressure over the southern plains with a trough across
northwestern CONUS. This will promote the transport of warmer and
drier surface air across the panhandles during this time. This
will be coupled with subsidence heating from the high pressure and
sunny skies allowing for ample daytime heating. The sum of all
these features will be hot conditions across the panhandles that
will see highs in the 90s to 100s. The hottest areas, such as Palo
Duro Canyon, have the potential to reach heat advisory levels.
There is the potential for some lower mid level moisture to move
across the panhandles during this time. While there is little in
the way of synoptic forcing the shear ample heat will allow for
this moisture to turn into isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms. Since these storms would be driven by daytime
heating the most likely time of occurrence will be the afternoon
to evening hours.

Thursday the trough over the northwestern CONUS will more likely
than not push out the ridge of high pressure and pass across the
southern to mid plains. Currently this has enough warm air
advection from southerly winds to still keep the panhandles hot
with 90s to 100s highs for Thursday. Still there is the chance for
the arrival of this weather system to cool the plains off earlier
ending the triple digit heat.

Come Friday and into the weekend the trough will most likely
become established across the region drawing in moisture to the
southern plains. This will bring a greater potential for rain
showers and thunderstorms to the panhandles. Further it would also
bring a cooldown bringing an end to the triple digit heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weather system is impacting the panhandles today causing rain
showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are capable of
producing very heavy rainfall that can lead to IFR or worse
conditions. Strong gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out with
the strongest of the thunderstorms. The most likely terminal to
see thunderstorms is KAMA with a lesser chance for KGUY and KDHT.
These thunderstorms will continue until the evening hours when the
either move off to the east or dissipate. Mist to fog has a very
low chance of occurring tonight, this will not be reflected in
the current TAFs.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98