085
FXUS64 KAMA 200145
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
845 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The northeast to southwest moving cold front has started moving
across the Panhandles with observed wind gusts upwards of 45 mph
across the northeastern TX Panhandle and the eastern OK Panhandle.
This front will continue to trek west and southwest the rest of
the evening. Several updates were made to account for the current
front progression, including winds and PoPs. Still would not be
surprised to see scattered storms form along the front as it moves
across the area this evening, with the main hazards being gusty
winds, lightning, and moderate to heavy rain.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Thunderstorms will remain possible for this afternoon through
  tonight across the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will
  be possible with any storms.

- After a brief break in the rain chances, daily chances for
  storms looks to return this weekend into early next week.

- A pattern change early next week may lead to below average
  temperatures along with continued chances for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Upper level high pressure continues to dominate from the Four
Corners Region to the Panhandles. Another day of warm
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s is expected this afternoon
with a slight chance for some isolated summer convection. Tonight
under mainly northerly flow aloft on the western periphery of the
upper high some subtle perturbations may spark some additional
convection. This may potentially bring more scattered precipitation.
Not all of the models suggest this. Therefore PoPs still remain
low with areas having 15 while other areas have upwards of 30 PoPs.
PWATs remain around 115 to 130 percent of normal, leaving some
moisture to work with and keeping much of the combined Panhandles
in a Marginal outlook for excessive rainfall by WPC.

Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be similar to today. PWATs
are expected to decrease to near 100 percent of normal. Just
enough moisture will be available for some isolated pop showers
storms, mainly in the southeast FA. Do have some small areas of
slight chance PoPs in the southeastern TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A little bit of a dry period is expected for Thu into
Thu night. Temperatures are expected to remain warm as upper level
high pressure remains in place. Friday night an upper level trough
is progged to begin digging into the Northern Great Plains, with
troughing continuing to dig and exist over much of the Upper to
Central Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley well
into early next week. This trough will help suppress the high
pressure and shift it west. The southern to southwestern extent of
this trough will determine how cool the temperatures can actually
get this weekend into early next week. The trough will also put
the Panhandles under northwest flow and increase chances for
precipitation chances as monsoonal moisture can be redirected back
into the FA. The beginning of the trough on Friday night will
help send some perturbations in the flow aloft and bring PoPs back
to the area especially to the northwest around 20-30 Friday
night. With each consecutive night increasing in PoPs and
coverage, covering more of the Panhandles including the southern
TX Panhandle. By Monday, Amarillo may potentially see a high of
82. That is the NBM value, the NBM 10th percentile gives Amarillo
a high of 69. Time will tell how cool of an August temperature can
actually be achieved. The coolest high temperature on record for
Amarillo on August 25th is 74, last achieved in 1992.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
There is an exceptions with afternoon and evening rain showers and
thunderstorms today and then again for Wednesday. These have a
low chance of impacting any of the terminals and may produce IFR
conditions during there passage. For now the chances of occurrence
are to low to be reflected in any of the TAFs.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98