795
FXUS64 KAMA 211137
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A prolonged heat wave is building through the week with major to
  extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of
  the week.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through
  Thursday afternoon, but chances are 15 percent or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Present model agreement continues to see a strong ridge and
upper- level high pressure build across most of the Central and
Western United States, which will leave the Panhandles in a very
stagnate upper-level pattern for most of this week. With this
pattern overhead, most models see the Panhandles being much drier
then the weekend, but much hotter as well. As it stands present
expectation is to see temperatures to keep warming for today and
Wednesday with potential to see multiple locations hitting the
triple digits. In our more terrain based locations, such as the
Palo Duro Canyon and Canadian River Valley, we can see the terrain
features have an amplifying effect on the temperatures resulting
these locations easily 3 to 5 degrees warmer than expected. What
will be interesting, however, is what models are currently
expecting out of the mid to low-levels of the atmosphere. Down
here models have continue to see a slight shift in the high
pressure system, which in turn has seen a more southeasterly flow
into the Panhandles. This flow is generally key in bringing in
moisture out of the south and the gulf, albeit not as strong in
this situation as it was last week. Still most models do expect
some moisture to make its way into the Panhandles over the course
of today and Wednesday.

This moisture, however, can be a bit of a double-edge sword for
the Panhandles. On one hand, the expected temperatures could
easily lift the moisture into developing some virga showers and
isolated thunderstorms, or at very least some cloud cover, this
afternoon and Wednesday afternoon which could help regulate the
heat a bit. At the same time, however, the dry air in the upper-
levels will likely keep said moisture trapped in the lower-levels.
Should that happened, then it likely to see our heat feel worse
than it actually is with for locations, especially across the
Eastern Panhandles feeling 2 to 4 degrees warmer than what is
actually being reported. Currently most CAMs are not too
enthusiastic on the idea of any storms for the day with most only
seeing a 10 to 15 percent chances of activity, though given the
models do struggle with these types of storms that may be all we
need. Regardless, temperatures are going to be a bigger concern
for each afternoon, with a Heat Advisory already in place across
the Eastern Panhandles for today and larger one becoming
increasingly more likely for Wednesday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Heat continues to be the big talking point for the remainder of
this week as model agreement does not see the the upper-level high
pressure staying over the Central and Western Untied States laying
off anytime soon. With this high-pressure in place, the Panhandles
will hold onto a more stagnate and dry upper-level pattern that
will aid in forcing temperatures to warm clear into the weekend.
Thursday and Friday in particular could be the peak of this heat
with many models seeing the upper-level high extend further south
and directly over the Panhandles. As it stand most models see the
vast majority of the Panhandles in the triple digits with some of
our more terrain based locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon and
Canadian River Valley, nearing the 110 degree mark Thursday
afternoon. Obviously such hot temperatures for both days brings
increasing confidence of some form of heat related products being
needed. However, what may not be as obvious is that low
temperatures are not fairing much better with present expectations
seeing locations, such as Amarillo, have the potential to either
break or tie their record warm low temperature clear through
Sunday. Expectations like these would also mean that there is very
little relief occurring during overnight hours which may only
amplify the risk of seeing heat related illness as each day
passes. In short, the closing days of this week may see an much
higher risk for heat related illness not just from very hot
afternoon, but from the accumulating effect of seeing these hot
temperatures for multiple day on top of getting very little relief
from the heat overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 12Z TAF period. VRB wind
speeds are expected until 17Z, but may persist longer at KAMA.
Winds will remain predominantly out of the SE, but more ESE at
KGUY. Some cumulus development across KGUY and KDHT from 21Z to
03Z is possible, and bases would range from 8000-9000 feet.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ004-005-008>010-013>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...23