209
FXUS64 KAMA 081057
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
557 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

-Thunderstorms are possible for the eastern Panhandles on
 Saturday, with a few storms could be severe.

-Potential for some locations to reach 100 degrees for high
 temperatures by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Looking ahead to Friday, a weak cold front will move south through
the Panhandles throughout the daytime hours. A mid level trough
moving east into the Rio Grande River valley of west Texas will keep
moisture advection well south of the Panhandles. A more subtle
disturbance in the main H500 NW flow by Friday afternoon across
Kansas could produce a shower in the far NE OK Panhandle, but
chances are under 10% at this time. Otherwise dry conditions overall
are expected with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s in the
northern combined Panhandles to mid and upper 80s for the southern
Texas Panhandle.

A second mid level perturbation moving SSE out of the central Plains
into the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon. Closer to the surface, a
notable H850-700 moisture transport should advect moisture from
the Gulf of America and reach as far northwest as the eastern
Panhandles by Saturday afternoon with SE/E sfc winds. This should
set up some sfc convergence over the eastern Panhandles in-
conjunction with the lift out ahead of the main H500 trough axis
for thunderstorms to potentially develop by mid to late Saturday
afternoon. In the most aggressive model datasets, the sfc
convergence boundary reaches as far west as a line roughly from
Beaver to Pampa to Clarendon where storms develop in an
environment of ~1000 J/kg of CAPE and sfc-6 km shear of ~40 kts.
This could develop a supercell or two with large hail and damaging
winds could be threats to watch. Also watching the potential that
the better moisture transport is further east along the eastern
TX Panhandle/western Oklahoma stateline where the majority of the
thunderstorm development will be along and east of said boundary,
which would keep the majority of the Panhandles dry. Also watching
the potential for some rain showers along a stronger cold front
by Saturday night moving north to south. Will watch trends closely
as the overall setup develops in the next 24-36 hours. High
temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 80s to the lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A notable cold front will move through the Panhandles the second
half of the coming weekend with dry conditions expected. High
temperatures on Sunday will be at or below average for early May.
The heat will turn up by next week, especially by the middle of next
week where triple digit high temperatures will be possible. Latest
global model data shows a developing ridge over the Four Corners
Region with daily strong LL WAA into the Panhandles. Towards the end
of the forecast period, we could see signs of some rain chances
returning. High temperatures from Tuesday onward to the end of the
forecast period will remain well above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. A cold
front will move in this morning, turn winds to northerly, and
winds will become breezy for several hours behind the front. Winds
will become light and variable tonight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52