112
FXUS64 KAMA 060410
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1110 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- The strong upper ridge across the central CONUS will get
  suppressed in the early part of the week. It will still be hot
  but we should see a small dip of a couple degrees around the TX
  and OK Panhandles.

- There will be a low chance of precipitation in the northern
  portion of our CWA by mid week.

- The main storm track for this next week will stay across the
  northern states....so other than the low chance for
  precipitation mid week it should generally be dry across our
  area

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 831 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Another interesting afternoon and evening with regards to
scattered convection across our area. Low cape and low shear meant
once again pulse storms, but we did have one severe gust observed
to 61 mph. However most gusts observed were in the 45-55 mph range
late this afternoon and evening. Similar to last night stronger
storms have developed near the KS-OK-CO border area with other
storms attempting to develop in the far northwest TX Panhandle.
The eastern portion of our CWA was under a subsident area due to
the strong high pressure aloft and and precipitation or clouds for
that matter quickly eroded or dissolved as they moved east.

Through Monday night we will see a respectable short wave trough
in the Pacific Northwest begin to eject across the northern tier
of states. This will cause the strong upper ridge to be
suppressed and become more elongated east-west across the southern
portion of the country. While it will still be hot the
temperatures could dip a couple of degrees for the early portion
of the week. With the main storm track to the north it will remain
mostly dry over the region although we could still see some widely
scattered convection over the northern panhandle areas again on
Sunday.

KP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 831 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The flat high pressure across the southern portion of the country
will stay in place for the majority of the week. By next weekend
another decent trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into
the northern and central US but we wont see much impact from that
system as it stays to our north. So a mostly dry week is expected
with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

KP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected outside of isolated to
scattered storms in the area this evening. GUY has best chance for
storm impacts in the next few hours. Chance for storms on Sunday
are less and more focused toward northwest Panhandles. DHT will
have greatest potential for storms Sun in the late aftn and
evening, but even there chances are low.

Gittinger

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...MJ