120
FXUS64 KAMA 300553
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1253 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Wed afternoon into Wed night could end up being a very active
period for showers and thunderstorms. Severe risk is low, however,
there is a marginal to slight risk for flash flooding.

Daily thunderstorm chances resume for the rest of the week.

Thursday may be well below normal with temperatures returning to
normal by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 90s continue this afternoon.
At least for the central to eastern combined Panhandles. An axis of
moisture can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery reaching from the
west coast of Mexico up into NM and CO. This moisture clips the
western combined Panhandles and will play a role in the western
combined Panhandles having slightly cooler afternoon highs today. It
will also play a role in some slight chance to maybe chance PoPs
this evening for the northwestern third or so of the FA.

Tomorrow the aforementioned moisture will also continue to play a
role in additional PoPs with a bit more coverage tomorrow.  The
upper level ridge is progged to get suppressed by a shortwave trough
creating perturbations to contribute to Pop chances. Currently a
closed low over the Hudson Bay is strengthening and progged to send
a positively tilted trough down into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley and the Great Lakes. This is the main trough that will
contribute to the shortwave suppressing the high pressure while also
sending the high westward. Also, this upper level system over the
Hudson Bay is to send a cold front over much of the Northern Great
Plains to Upper Midwest and Northeast by late tomorrow. Tomorrow
night hints of this front may reach the combined Panhandles as well.
This boundary feature may provide additional lift for rain. The
northerly winds behind this boundary are progged to bring in some
higher Tds in the mid 60s to much of the area. The increase in
moisture behind a front this time of year is likely due to "corn
sweat" coming from Nebraska/Iowa to the north/northeast.

The increase in moisture along with lifting mechanisms are
increasing PoPs for tomorrow night, into the 30 to 70 percent
range for much of the area. With the amount of moisture, both from
surface moisture coming from the north and upper level Pacific
monsoonal moisture coming from the tropics through Mexico into NM,
there will be a concern for potential flooding and flash flooding
tomorrow night. WPC does have a slight chance to exceed flash
flooding in the northern FA with marginal chance elsewhere in the
FA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Guidance is in fair agreement that temperatures will stay below
normal on Friday as well, after Wednesday`s cold front. How cool we
stay will depend on cloud coverage and wind direction for the day.
Thus far, skies look to be partly cloudy (SCT) to mostly cloudy
(BKN). Surface winds may flow predominantly from the east, but may
have a northerly or southerly component depending on the location.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible starting
Friday afternoon and potentially lasting into the overnight period.
Excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially for low
lying areas or places that have already received an abundance of
rainfall from previous days.

For the rest of the extended, chances for thunderstorms continue
through the weekend and temperatures will climb back into the 90`s.
For next week, long range models seem keen on allowing the ridge to
return to the CWA and park overhead. This spells a dry and hot
forecast for the coming week, but we will continue to monitor trends
and see if there are any changes in the coming days.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR conditions are tentatively expected for all sites for the
next 24 hours. Periods of low visibility and low ceilings have a
medium to high chance of occurring this afternoon at all sites
due to thunderstorm activity. PROB30 groups have been implemented
starting at 21Z and lasting through the rest of the 06Z period. As
we get closer in time to the event, we will be able to provide
sharper time frames for thunderstorm start and end times.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55