385
FXUS64 KAMA 211142
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 -Thunderstorms are possible each day throughout the work week,
  where some storms could produce heavy rainfall rates and strong
  wind gusts.

 -Watching closely the flooding potential by mid week with repeat
  rounds of heavy rain for portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Monitoring upstream as of the latest 03Z obs, a cluster of storms
developing along the Palmer Divide in upslope flow across north
central Colorado is moving southeast through eastern Colorado
Plains, aided also by an H500 mid level perturbation moving due
east. Latest hi-res model guidance shows outflow from these storms
eventually moving southeast towards the OK Panhandle towards
sunrise Monday morning. By then, main activity should be elevated
behind any propagating outflow boundaries and/or cold pool, but
cannot completely rule out a storm producing locally strong wind
gusts with DCAPE values in the OK Panhandle around 1000 J/kg by by
sunrise Monday morning. Most activity however before 12Z Monday
should be limited in coverage, but will monitor trends closely.

Going into Monday afternoon/evening, perturbations in the mid
levels along the early stages of an amplified H500 ridge axis may
help to develop some showers and storms, favoring the southern
Texas Panhandle initially. Later into overnight hours, more
established thunderstorms activity from eastern NM may spread
east/northeast into the western Panhandles. High temperatures on
Monday will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to upper
80s in the SE TX Panhandle.

Latest overall model guidance continues to illustrate a building
H500 ridge into the central Plains. In-conjucntion with a deepening
H500 trough developing over the Wasatch mountains, this will
result in a resultant moisture transport axis extending NNE from
the sub- tropical region north through NM and into the western
Panhandles. Mid level perturbations downstream of the main trough
axis, with ample moisture should provide chances for rain and some
storms Tuesday evening, and especially Tuesday night. Vertical
profiles by Tuesday are showing limited linear shear in the low to
mid levels, along with PWAT values in the 99th percentile, will
have to monitor closely the potential for localized flooding. High
rainfall rates with thunderstorms that develop and/or training
storms will exacerbate flooding potential, especially if the
overall ingredients line up for our region. Highest rain chances
Tuesday night will be across the western Panhandles, but those
chances could spread east. High temperatures will range from the
upper 70s in the western Panhandles to mid 80s in the eastern
Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Details of the aforementioned rain chances for Tuesday continue
through the remainder of the work week. Those increased rain
chances should spread east as the ridge axis in the central Plains
will compress back into Texas, shifting the main moisture
transport axis more northeastward into the Panhandles region.
Will have to watch forecast trends closely, as repeat rounds of
heavy rainfall could cause some flooding issues. Temperatures
should remain below average throughout the work week with perhaps
temperatures rising to near average by the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions this morning as a cold front has moved
through. Winds will be fairly light today, up to 10kts, out of
the east to northeast. Light rain at KGUY that may continue for
the next few hours. Otherwise conditions should transition to more
MVFR in the 18 to 21z time period, then we should be VFR after 21z
for the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated storms possible in
the southwest Panhandle today, and should stay far enough away
from Amarillo, but will amend TAFs as needed if a storm impacts
the terminal.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89