288
FXUS64 KAMA 172332
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

-Isolated showers and storms this evening. Moderate to heavy rain
 will be the primary concern with possible localized flooding. Low
 chance that storms become severe with 1" hail and winds up to 70
 mph.

-Heat is on the way starting Saturday and through next week. Heat
 concerns for Palo Duro Canyon on Sunday through Tuesday.

-Ample moisture with the heat could still support storms, despite
 a dry forecast, and a system over the Pac Nw could help push
 daily thunderstorms over the Panhandles starting Sunday through
 next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Latest satellite image shows a good band of clouds along and north
of I-40 from this mornings showers and storms. Temperatures have
held in the mid 70s to low 80s so far, exception is the far
southwest near Hereford, already up to 90. Looking at the area
along and south of the I-40 corridor that may have the best
moisture and potential for strong heating as the clearing
continues for late afternoon to evening storms can develop. 18z
sounding is very capped at KAMA with over 150ML CIN and very
little CAPE to work with, it may be a challenge for anything to
get going. There are some CAM`s lately that suggest we may be too
worked over an that today will not have any storms. Overall, if
storms do form, they will likely be slow moving 5 to 10 kts and
should track north, before diminishing toward the central to
northern Panhandle. PWAT`s on the 18z sounding are still pretty
high 1.40" supporting very heavy rainfall, which continues the
primary concern for flooding with these storms. Shear is not that
impressive, but just enough to keep the threat for hail up to 1"
and wind up to 70 mph in the forecast. But still thing the main
issue is going to be heavy rainfall.

Later this evening and overnight there`s a cluster of storms
expected to track east into the western Panhandle supporting more
heavy rain, but again confidence is not high given the early
morning storms and an already worked over environment. This is
supported by the more recent CAM runs that have pretty much gone
dry for a lot of the area. Convective models have struggled this
season, and given the ample low level moisture as well as the
cluster of storms expected in NM, it still wouldn`t be a surprise
despite the factors working against us, to see thunderstorms
develop, or at least get that cluster to move into the northwest
Panhandles overnight.

As we move into Friday, the upper high that has been over the
Atlantic/Florida area, is expected to slowly retrograde west,
which will push the moisture plume further into NM and provide
more subsidence to the area. Now we still could get in isolated
storm or two given the low level moisture and temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s, but it does appear that we`ll be moving to a
drier period at least through Monday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As the high continues to shift west over the weekend and into
early next week, we should continue to heat up and remain fairly
dry. The challenge will be that due to the ample low level
moisture and higher dewpoints we still may manage to convect pop
up showers/storms on any given day. Additionally, we could be
looking at temperatures struggling to hit that 100 degree mark,
due to the higher surface moisture or afternoon cloud cover from
that moisture. On the flip side, if the dewpoints linger in the
lower to mid 60s, we can expect to feel a heat index of some sort
that could take us over the 100 degree mark, even if we don`t
reach that as the actual temperature. Palo Duro Canyon currently
looks as if it could get to 105 heat index on 3 consecutive days
(Sunday- Tuesday). It just depends on if the dewpoints will hold
higher, and we dont get any cloud cover to significantly inhibit
max daytime heating.

Now while it should be dry Sunday through Wednesday, and the NBM
pops are around 10 percent, the reality is that we could se daily
rounds of storms across the western to maybe central Panhandles.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to move in and
could help nudge moisture in NM over to our western to central
zones. And that could support not just a few storms, but possibly
several rounds of storms. This could also suppress that heat
concern that we previously discussed. Either way, the extended
looks to be busy with heat risk concerns and/or some continued
hydro concerns if we get daily rounds of storms.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Remnants of last night boundary are allowing for storms to
develop across the southern most row of counties in the Texas
Panhandles. While these storms are likely to produce some gusty
winds at the surface and heavy rainfall, the weak storm motion
present makes them very unlikely to create impacts to KAMA. Still
we may see a brief shower present within the vicinity, so have
made mention in current package. Otherwise, focus will shift into
a potential second wave of activity that may move in from the
west. Should this occur then impacts to KDHT and KGUY are possible
around the midnight time frame, but would be limited to mostly
heavy rainfall.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11