260
FXUS64 KAMA 112346
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Low chance for severe thunderstorms in the far southeastern
  Texas panhandle this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds
  are the main threat.

- Further daily potential for thunderstorms Friday through
  Tuesday. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Friday
  and Saturday.

- Embedded in the active weather is the potential for hot
  temperatures on Saturday where some areas may need heat
  highlights.

- Potential for widespread hot conditions starting Wednesday with
  triple digits highs returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A weather system remains the dominate weather feature across the
panhandles for today and Friday. Earlier today a cold front passed
across much of the panhandles bringing cooler and drier air. This
means that much of the panhandles today will see calm and sunny
weather. These areas will see breezy north winds which when
coupled with the dry conditions will lead to limited elevated fire
weather concerns. In the far southeastern Texas panhandles there
remains both hotter and more moisture conditions. This will allow
at least a low chance for thunderstorms to form later this
afternoon. The storms that do form will find a favorable
environment with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/Kg and shear of 20 to 40 kt.
That means these storms can become strong to severe with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Further, the
moisture feeding these storms will be very high allowing for
torrential rainfall that can cause flooding. Since these storms
would form in the far southeast it is fully possible for them to
start in our area and then move out before they become strong to
severe. What thunderstorms that manage to form in our area will
either cease or push south by the early evening. This will bring a
brief window of calmer conditions through the early overnight
hours.

Moisture will push back northward during the overnight hours
overrunning the cooler air brought in by the cold front. This will
be combined with surface easterly winds bringing in some surface
moisture but more crucially providing some orographic ascension.
Both of these will likely lead to a large low level cloud deck
spreading across the panhandles overnight. The lift should prevent
the formation of fog underneath this bank of clouds. However,
this moisture will work its way underneath mid level instability
which opens the door to at least a low chance for nocturnal high
based rain showers and thunderstorms. These storms are more likely
to occur in the northern combined panhandles as there is
increased forcing from the weather system. The overall instability
is such that a few of the storms can become strong to severe with
large hail being the main threat from such a storm. This round of
storms will most likely come to an end during the mid morning
hours of Friday as either they dissipate of move east out of the
area. The low bank of clouds will then likely lift and scatter out
during the later morning hours of Friday. This will allow for
ample daytime heating across the panhandles for much of Friday
afternoon. This introduces the potential for afternoon
thunderstorms in the panhandles. During the early afternoon the
forcing to get thunderstorms going is lacking so the chance of
anything occurring during this time is very low. If a storm does
manage to form during this time shear of 30-40kt and CAPE values
of 3000-4000 J/Kg will support supercell mode of convection. Such
storms pose mainly a wind and hail risk, but tornados cannot be
ruled out. Still the chances are low enough that these
thunderstorms are not reflected within the current forecast. The
chances for thunderstorms are most likely during the late
afternoon and evening associated with the passage of a small
weather system. This small weather system most likely will flair
thunderstorms in the northwestern panhandles during the late
afternoon. These thunderstorms then move east and south turning
into a meso-convective system/squall line towards the early
evening. This system then passes across the rest of the panhandles
through the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
hours. The environment during this time will allow this system to
produce strong to even damaging wind gusts. Moisture values will
be high on Friday with PWATs of 1.25 to 1.5" across the
panhandles. This will allow any thunderstorms that does form to
produce heavy to torrential rainfall. This is currently allowing a
low chance for flash flooding through Friday across the
panhandles. The threat from flooding can be higher than normal if
it occur overnight making it harder to detect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The large scale weather system remains the dominate feature across
the southern plains through Tuesday. This will continue the
stretch of active weather across the panhandles through that time.

Saturday robust south winds will most likely bring in warm and
moist air across the panhandles through the early afternoon ahead
of the cold front. This has the potential to bring hot
temperatures across the panhandles that can see triple digit heat
for the hottest spots such as Palo Duro Canyon. The front then
pushes through this warm moist air during the later afternoon and
evening. This will act as the trigger mechanism to spark off rain
showers and thunderstorms. The chance for these storms will
increase as the front moves south owing to the higher moisture in
the central to southern panhandles. Since the environment is very
moist these storms can produce torrential rainfall that can lead
to flooding. The saving grace may come from the fronts progressive
nature which will limit the duration of these storms over any
given spot. However, the front slows down at all it opens that
panhandles up to the threat of significant flooding.

For Sunday to Tuesday the eastward shift on the weather system
will bring more northwesterly flow across the southern plains.
This most likely will keep unstable conditions across the
panhandles with the potential for smaller weather system passages.
This coupled with the high moisture means active weather of rain
showers and thunderstorms can continue through these days. Since
the moisture remains high flooding will most likely remain a risk
as well.

For mid to late next week high pressure is likely to build into
the southern plains as the weather system departs. This would
bring increasing heat to the panhandles leading to a sharp
increase in the temperatures. This can see widespread 90s to 100s
which will be all the worse in the hottest spots such as Palo Duro
Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. There is already signals
that the heat will be high enough to pose a risk for heat illness.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

TAFs look to be VFR over the next 24 hours, PROB30s for now have
been removed from the 08-12z time period as confidence is trending
down, but could be added again if that changes. Will note that low
cigs will still be possible in the 06-14z time period, but not
enough confidence to go below VFR at this time. Overall winds will
be out of the northeast to start in the 15-25kt range and come
down out of the east 10-15kts around 6z, then by 12z most sites
will be more southeast 5 to 10kts. Winds may pick up again out of
the south 15 gusting 25kts after 16z.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89