502
FXUS64 KAMA 031747
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Continued shower and thunderstorm chances for the next seven days.
However, chances each day will vary across the CWA.

Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees for certain
location on Saturday. The Palo Duro Canyon currently has a high
chance to exceed 100 degree apparent temperatures Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A very dirty ridge over the Central to Southern Great Plains to
Lower Mississippi River Valley will be brining some perturbations
over the FA today. A mid to upper level shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest will be aiding in these perturbations. Moisture
continues to get pumped into the area through West Texas bringing
prospects of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
evening, mainly across the southern half of the FA. Areas around
Lubbock have already seen around an inch to two inches of rain in
the last few hours. Although that much rain has fallen further
south of the Panhandles, the FA may not see quite as much with
much of the moisture being lost before it gets here. PoPs are
upwards of 50 percent across the southern TX Panhandle this
afternoon going into the early evening. PoPs remain above 30 going
into the overnight period. However, many of the CAMs suggest
activity dropping off quite a bit after 00Z Friday.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned trough swings north clipping the
northern combined Panhandles. PoPs drop off a bit for everywhere
except the northern Panhandles under this trough. Otherwise
tomorrow should be a bit drier for most, but also slightly warmer.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Saturday, an upper level ridge builds in behind the shortwave trough
bring some of the warmest temperatures to the area. Although,
ambient temperatures are only progged to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid to upper
90s. PDC is the exception with a high in the mid 90s and heat
indices in the lower triple digits, possibly up to 102. This will
be thanks to dewpoints in the 60 in the western third of the
combined Panhandles and in the 70s to the eastern two thirds of
the Panhandles. This abundant moisture with upper level flow aloft
shifting to more northwest, PoPs return in the 20 to 30 range
across the board Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday
afternoon the NBM gives 40 PoPs for the northwestern half to
around 30 to the southeastern half.

PoPs remain through much of the extended. However, a shift in
monsoonal moisture is expected with much of the moisture
transitioning over AZ and NM especially after day 6. Temperatures
are expected to remain in the 80s to 90s for the afternoon highs.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated with summer time
pulse convection always maintaining at least wind threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Cloud cover will remain across the central to southern TX
Panhandle, leaving KAMA with IFR to maybe MVFR CIGs through much
of period. Showers and thunderstorms may also impact KAMA as well
as KDHT this period. Especially between now and 03Z Friday.
Expecting south to southeasterly winds up to 15 kts.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36