Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
639 FXUS64 KAMA 151134 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 -Rain chances return for some areas on Thursday and Friday. -Near average temperature through Monday, with below average temperatures that could return a week from now. && .UPDATE... Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Clear skies and light winds are leading to a very nice start to the day for the Panhandles. Temperatures will quickly warm up into the 80s this afternoon and breezy south winds could have gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Main change with this forecast update were to increase wind gusts slightly, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Latest 05Z satellite analysis shows portions of the Panhandles under a narrow stream of moisture advection moving northeast into the region. This corridor of moisture will shift to the west for today across New Mexico bringing mostly dry conditions for the Panhandles. Temperatures today under mostly clear skies will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Going into the day tomorrow, as the main H500 high pressure system centered over the ArkLaTex compresses and the H500 trough traverses northeast into the central Rockies, the aforementioned axis of best moisture transport will shift back into the Panhandles. Given good H850-700 theta-e advection ahead of the trough axis, with instability, generally under 1000 J/kg, along with a Pacific front moving into the Panhandles, along said front, we could see an area of thunderstorms develop. Went ahead and expanded POPs in coverage to account the better moisture transport into the region, especially areas just ahead of the front. The central and western Panhandles have the best chances of seeing rainfall with this system. Latest hi-res prob blends shows a 30-40% chance of at least 0.25" of an inch of rain for the western Texas Panhandle by tomorrow night. Low temperatures tomorrow night with clearing skies will range from the mid 40s in the NW to upper 50s in the SE. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Residual moisture from the Pacific front and downstream of the eastward moving H500 trough will give the far SE TX Panhandle around a 20% chance of rain by Friday evening. Otherwise, dry conditions expected to continue throughout the long term forecast period. A series of low amplitude trough and ridges across the southern CONUS should keep us mostly dry. Temperatures will also oscillate between near to above average from later this week through the weekend, to below average temperatures by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Breezy south winds are forecast with wind gusts up to 30 kts at the terminals. Wind gusts may continue through the overnight hours as sustained winds remain around 10-15 kts, but the gusts should be less frequent. Mostly clear skies should prevail across the region. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...05