990
FXUS64 KAMA 121739
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

There remains a low chance for afternoon and evening rain showers
and thunderstorms that will still be capable of producing heavy
rainfall and very localized flooding.

Rain showers and thunderstorms chances remain for the panhandle
during the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The significant amount of early rain showers and thunderstorms
during the overnight and morning hours today have helped to
stabilize the atmosphere across the panhandles. This has reduced the
chances for further rain showers and thunderstorms to develop in the
panhandles for this afternoon and evening. Still there is a very low
chance that a few isolated storms will occur during this time.
Moisture also remains elevated so if any of those storms do manage
to form they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.
This means that there is still a non zero chance for flooding to
occur in localized spots in the panhandles today. However the
probability for the flood threat is so low that we cannot justify
the continuance of the Flood Watch so it has been cancelled. A side
benefit of all the moisture, rain, and cloud cover is that the
temperatures will be cool across the panhandles with 70s to low 80s
expected for highs. This is well below normal as typically we are in
the 90s for this time of year. Alas one of the downsides to the
rainfall is that it has a very low chance of causing fog to form in
the panhandles tonight into Sunday morning. Given that we had wide
spread around an inch rain with localized spots seeing much higher
rainfall there is plenty of surface moisture to cause this fog. So
if the fog does form it could be dense leading to a dreary start of
Sunday. Sunrise will bring an end to any fog that forms as it both
lifts and dissipate it. As of right now the chance for fog is to low
to be reflected within the forecast but this may change if
confidence in its occurrence increases. For Sunday it seems most
likely that the better instability and moisture will remain to the
south of the panhandles. This will leave the panhandles in a
relatively more stable environment that will help to limit the
amount of rain showers and thunderstorms to mostly the southern TX
panhandle where conditions are more unstable. This will allow for
some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to form during the
afternoon and evening. The high moisture will still be present so
heavy rainfall from these storms cannot be ruled out. That means
once again there is a non zero chance the localized flooding may
occur. Sunday is expected to be a sunnier day so this will allow for
more daytime heating with high climbing solidly into the 80s across
the panhandles. Still below normal for this time of year but not as
much as Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The active weather pattern of a trough over the southern plains with
a high pressure both to the east and west of the region has a
moderate chance of remaining in place to mid next week. This would
keep generally unstable and moist conditions across the panhandles
that can cause daily rain showers and thunderstorms. Going into the
later portions of next week there is some uncertainty to whether the
eastern high pressure builds further westward into the southern
plains. If this occurs it would lead to a small reduction in the
moisture making the panhandles a little less active. This means we
still have a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms just the
amount and extent will be lower. The other possibility is that the
pattern remains mainly unchanged which means the daily chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms also remains unchanged from early in
the week. With such moist conditions the panhandles will most likely
remain cooler than average through the whole of next week regardless
of what the pattern does.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The weather system has departed the panhandles with most of the rain
shower and thunderstorm activity ending. What little remains of this
activity is not expected to impact any of the terminals.
There is lingering moisture over the panhandles causing both low and
mid level cloud decks. The low level clouds are mostly in the north
central to northern panhandles causing MVFR conditions. This is
currently impacting KDHT and to a lesser extent KGUY. Conditions
should improve to VFR as this cloud deck lifts and scatters. Then
the VFR conditions hold through the rest of the night into Sunday.
The sole exception would be with the very low chance of fog
formation overnight into Sunday morning. If this fog occurs then
IFR or worse conditions may be expected in fog banks. However the
chances of this are way to low to be reflected in any of the TAFs
at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98