816
FXUS64 KAMA 262305
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
605 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Very isolated showers and thunderstorm potential, mainly in the
central to southwestern TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening. Can`t
rule out a potential severe storm for damaging winds.

Heat and humidity continue to pose a moderate heat risk for areas
such as Palo Duro Canyon over the next few days.

Mostly rain free through Wed night when chance PoPs return mainly
in the northwest combined Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Skies remain clear as of the start of this writing. Temperatures
continue to rise though, and should start to see quite a cu field
showing up in the early afternoon hours especially across the
western FA. Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with
potentially a couple of areas reaching a 100 is expected this
afternoon. An upper level ridge continues to build in from the east
and may bring some slight perturbations with it in the west. This
may aid in some isolated showers and storms to form across the
central to western combined Panhandles. Will at least hold on to a
10 PoP but confidence is increasing ever so slightly for at least
some activity that a 20 PoP could be arguably used. SBCAPE values
approaching 2000 J/Kg and DCAPE values over 1200 J/Kg would have
damaging a winds a potential with any pop up storm. Just like
previous days where 70 mph plus winds were recorded, low level lapse
rates are upwards of 10 degrees C/km, making strong gusts a
possibility today. Effective shear is around 10 kts and storms
should collapse almost as quickly as they grow adding to the
downburst threat. Most of the CAMS suggest very isolated activity.
Hence, only the 10 PoP for now. Some of the storms may collapse
before being able to achieve CG lightning. How much CIN is actually
in place and whether or not some upper level lift may assist will
determine what actually transpires.

Upper level ridging continues overhead tomorrow with warm
temperatures once again. Td remain in the 60s across the west, and
just like today with places such as the canyon floor and the far
southeastern TX Panhandle may see some heat indices exceeding 100
degrees. Across the northern FA tomorrow a few more areas may be
able to reach the triple digits in ambient temperatures, mainly
the central to eastern OK Panhandle. CAMS are not showing much of
anything popping up in way of thunderstorms tomorrow. For now, not
adding any in, but a 10 pop may be needed for tomorrow afternoon
as well. Even less support will be available from forcing aloft
under the ridge. However, convective temperatures may potentially
allow some isolated pop ups to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Warm temperatures continue into the early part of the extended
period. It is not until towards the end where a potential shift in
the upper level ridge may bring temperatures back to the lower
90s. Also, Wed onward depending on how the ridge starts to shift,
mainly a westward shift, some ridge riders may bring precipitation
chances back into the area. Until then, PoPs remain low with
maybe a 10 percent chance or less. The ridge riders,
perturbations, are expected to be rounding the ridge limiting
PoPs to the northwest combined Panhandles depending on where the
ridge positions itself. Have stayed with the NBM values through
the extended which pops get as high as 54 in Kenton, OK in the
northwest to 14 down in Amarillo to the southeast for Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The only
exception to this will be during a rain shower or thunderstorm
which may lower conditions to MVFR or less. However the odds of
rain showers and thunderstorm impacting any of the terminal is not
high enough to be reflected within the TAFs. Otherwise gusty
southerly winds will be present during the daytime hours at all
terminals for both today and again on Sunday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98