Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
747 FXUS64 KAMA 300513 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Rain chances remain for today into Friday. Although, for today precipitation will be very light and sparse. Better chances exist tonight into Friday mainly for the western combined Panhandles and southern TX Panhandle. - Cooler temperatures in the 50s to 60s are expected today with 40s and 50s expected Friday. - Looking at a frost potential for the west to northwestern combined Panhandles for Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 A broad upper level trough can be seen on satellite expanding from the Northern Great Plains through the Upper Midwest into Northeast. Out west is shortwave trough axis running from CA to MT. Out in the Pacific Ocean off the southwest coast of CA is a cutoff low. Upper level troughing is expected to continue to evolve over the next couple of days. Although some models are suggesting rain starting as early as sunrise today, the combined Panhandles are likely to see little to no rain until late tonight into Friday morning when better lift and moisture enter the area. It will take this cutoff low coming on land and merging back with the trough out west to bring better lift and moisture for precipitation. Confidence in thunder is very low at this time but can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder, especially in the southern TX Panhandle. For now skies remain clear over the combined Panhandles as of this writing, with a stream of moisture/clouds extending from southern AZ/NM into West Texas, mainly impacting Lubbock to Midland area at this time. Clouds will gradually increase through the day today as the aforementioned upper level lows evolve, and start to impact more of the combined Panhandles. Thanks to surface winds continuing out of the east (upsloping) and less sunlight expected this afternoon, temperatures should be noticeably cooler. Afternoon highs are progged to be in the upper 50s to northwest to lower 60s to the central and southeastern Panhandles. Tomorrow, with the increasing rain activity and continued cloud cover and lowering H5 heights temperatures are expected to be even cooler for Friday. Afternoon temperatures are looking to be well below normal in the lower 50s to the west and upper 50s to the east. By Friday evening rain activity is expected to wane and the sky is progged to begin clearing in the overnight hours. This clearing along with winds dropping off will help with temperatures dropping to near freezing in the northwestern combined Panhandles going into Saturday morning. Some lower Tds in the lower to mid 30s are looking to move into the northwest and radiational cooling will drive a drop off in temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Upper level ridging returns Saturday with temperatures on the rebound. Very little PoPs exist in the long term. But may see some slight chance PoPs in the northern combined Panhandles if some perturbations in the ridge occur. Saturday afternoon temperatures reach back to the upper 60s to lower 70s, and as the ridge builds in more afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for Sunday. Those 80s may last into Tuesday before a potential front on Wed knocks temperatures back down a bit. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 The aviation forecast is a bit messy at this time, as confidence remains low on to when low clouds or rain will begin to impact the terminals. Early on rain chances remain low with little amounts in the hundredths expected to be measured. It is not until after 00Z when rain is expected to become more showery and impactful to the terminals. Until then, MVFR CIGs remain possible with IFR CIGs likely sometime after 00Z Friday. Winds are expected to remain predominately easterly through the period up to 15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...03