134
FXUS64 KAMA 242325
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
525 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Record warmth across the Panhandles today.

A cold front tonight will sharply drop temperatures for Monday.

Cold weather conditions are forecast to settle in Thursday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Generally benign weather conditions continue during the short term
period. Zonal flow aloft continues for the rest of the day, but by
the overnight hours a cold front will move through and quickly
overtake the Panhandles. The front should pass through the entire
CWA by 3 AM. Afterwards, northerly winds will flow through the region
for the rest of the period.

Today, surface wind speeds are breezy from the west after the
passing of a shortwave trough. Warm air advection will still occur
through the afternoon and above average temperatures are expected
across the region. Highs today have a medium chance to meet or
exceed record values at our climate sites, with the highest
chance to set a new record at Amarillo. Tomorrow, highs will
sharply decrease by 20 degrees Fahrenheit or more. Wind speeds
will stay breezy from the north through most of the day, but will
gradually decrease in speeds from west to east.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The upper level pattern returns to a brief period of zonal flow
over the CWA for the start of the long term period. The next
trough moves southward through the Panhandles on Wednesday.
Afterwards, a cold airmass will settle in over the region. Warm
air advection resumes in the combined Panhandles on Tuesday, and
temperatures should return to the 50`s and 60`s. This trend will
continue on Wednesday. However, as our next cold front enters the
CWA Wednesday afternoon, Highs will drop from north to south. 60
degree temperatures may only exist in the southern half of our
CWA. Behind the front, Thursday onward, highs will fall back into
the 40`s and 50`s. Meanwhile, morning lows should stay below
freezing for much of the area. Currently, a low/medium chance for
lows in the teens exist in the Oklahoma Panhandles Friday through
next Sunday. Additionally, wind chills for the latter half of the
extended have a higher chance of being below 20 degrees, and for
some locations in our northern zones a slight chance (15-25%) to
experience wind chills in the single digits.

Chances for wintry precipitation continue to decrease for the
northwest Panhandles Wednesday night into Thursday. There seems
to be less and less available moisture alongside the front for
precipitation to occur. The 12Z run of the operational GFS and
some members of the GEFS ensemble suggest that snow is still
possible for the north, and there`s chances for snow even in the
central Texas Panhandle. These are the outliers amongst the rest
of the guidance, so the NBM has reduced POPs below mentionable
criteria for almost the entire CWA.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period, with a cold
front passage expected later this evening. A shift to northerly
winds should occur at all sites by 06z, providing 10-20 kt
sustained winds with higher gusts of 25-30 kts at times. winds
will subside out of the northeast at about 10 kts or less
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                35  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  30  49  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              29  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  35  52  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              34  51  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  35  49  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               37  51  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 30  48  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  29  48  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                36  50  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                33  49  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   33  49  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                36  51  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              39  52  30  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...38