842
FXUS64 KAMA 242321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

-Watching for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for
 portions of the Panhandles.

-More widespread severe thunderstorm chances tomorrow, favoring
 the southern Texas Panhandle.

-Dryline convection will give us a chance of thunderstorms all
 through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Latest 18Z satellite analysis continues to show a low amplitude
H500 ridge with its axis over the southern High Plains. Further
back to the west, another mid level perturbation is moving east
across New Mexico. Similar to yesterday, the water vapor shows
the deepest profiles of moisture to our south and east. Still
prevalent in our eastern areas, but drier air aloft under the
aforementioned ridge is still in place. Closer to the surface, a
nearly stationary front is in place over the central Texas
Panhandles, with a weak surface low that has developed along the
front. This has advected 60s Td values across most of the
Panhandles with an east and northeast wind. The southeast Texas
Panhandle is the only exception with current obs showing
southeast winds.

With all these obs mentioned, this will result in two areas of
thunderstorm development we are watching closely. First will be
across the northern combined Panhandles, where residual sfc based
convection initiation across KS/CO, closest to best H500-300 right
entrance ascent in the column. These areas thunderstorms that
develop further north will become elevated before reaching the
northern Panhandles, where a storm or two with a strong updraft
could produce severe criteria hail through this evening. The
second area we are watching closely is the southeast Texas
Panhandle. Further south across the Texas South Plains and
Permian Basin area, the aforementioned perturbation in New Mexico
will tap into better LL moisture in these areas of west Texas.
This will help generate thunderstorms. Established convection that
does move towards the vicinity of the SE TX Panhandle in the SE
periphery of the surface low, could produce some severe
thunderstorms. Hi-res model and numerical forecast soundings do
show a notable cap in place at this time with MLCAPE of only 100
J/kg according to the latest 18Z RAOB data from KAMA. But if the
cap can be broken from established convection and/or any other
localized lift along a surface boundary, SBCAPE/MUCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg would suffice for severe thunderstorms with large
hail, and damaging winds with DCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg the
main threats. Tornado chances are very low, but still cannot be
ruled out with directional shear present in the SE TX Panhandle.
Leftover showers or elevated thunderstorms could remain through
the overnight period (~20% chance), but should remain below severe
criteria past midnight.

For tomorrow, as the main H500 trough axis approaches the Four
Corners region, more robust perturbations should move into the
Panhandles region. Coupled with the slow south drifting cold
front within the I-40 corridor by tomorrow afternoon, areas along
and south of the cold front will have the best chances of seeing
strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
evening. Abundant CAPE and sfc-6 km shear will support initial
supercell development with very large hail >2" possible across
areas south of the cold front. Supercell should cluster into a
multi-cell cluster with more of a damaging wind threat later into
tomorrow evening as the line will propagate east-southeast along
the axis of strongest thermal dichotomy. Winds gusts as high as
70-80 mph will be possible, especially for the SE Texas
Panhandle. There are also scenarios where the front moves well
south of the Texas Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon which could
keep most of the activity south. But current forecast reflects a
scenario where higher severe thunderstorm chances favor the
southern Texas Panhandle. On top of the severe thunderstorm
threat, flash flooding will also be something to watch closely.
Repeat rounds of heavy rain with thunderstorms over the same
vicinity, along with PWAT values in the + 2-3 S.D. range over
climatology for May, this could result in some flooding impacts.
The H500 trough will enter the northern Panhandles tomorrow night
with additional rain chances continuing through the overnight,
where more elevated thunderstorms, some that could be severe will
be possible. Depending on where the cold front sets up, high
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s in the OK
Panhandle to mid 80s in the southern TX Panhandle.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The cold front on Saturday will make its journey south, by only
about a few tens of miles for Sunday, perhaps reaching the I-40
corridor. With converging winds along the front, abundant moisture
and instability north of 2000 J/kg based on the latest 23/12Z
model and numerical guidance, all hazards will be in play
throughout the day and evening hours on Sunday. With prolonged
rain chances and a deepening trough lee of the Rockies by Sunday
night into Memorial Day with persistent lift from the trough and
the front, we will have to watch closely for also flash flooding
potential Sunday night through Memorial day, especially for areas
with abundant rainfall from previous days, we will have to watch
for flooding chances closely.

Continuing past Monday through the majority of next week,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe
will occur as the main notable isodrosotherms boundary are
illustrated to be well west of the Panhandles putting us in an
established moisture advection regime. However, the front will
have moved south of the Panhandles. This will result in blow
average temperatures early next week to near average temperatures
by the end of next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions likely to prevail through 06z, and then KGUY and KDHT
may start to transition to MVFR/IFR levels, as low clouds and
possible drizzle could set in after 06z.  Drizzle potential may be
more favored at KGUY v.s. KDHT, but still expect MVFR/IFR cigs.  As
far as KAMA goes, it should be mostly VFR, but that is contingent on
the frontal system stalling to the north around the central
Panhandle.  That will keep the low clouds to the north.  However,
toward the end of the TAF period there certainly will be a chance at
all TAF sites for showers and thunderstorms, which has been addressed
with a PROB30, and that could certainly lead to IFR/LIFR categories.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  84  55  71 /  10  50  90  50
Beaver OK                  58  71  52  66 /  40  40  90  60
Boise City OK              53  65  49  66 /  30  40  90  70
Borger TX                  63  83  57  72 /  20  40  90  60
Boys Ranch TX              60  82  55  73 /  10  40  90  60
Canyon TX                  60  86  55  73 /  10  40  70  50
Clarendon TX               63  88  57  71 /  20  50  90  50
Dalhart TX                 55  71  50  69 /  10  40  90  60
Guymon OK                  55  69  51  66 /  30  40 100  60
Hereford TX                60  87  54  74 /  10  40  70  50
Lipscomb TX                61  78  55  67 /  30  40  90  60
Pampa TX                   61  82  56  69 /  20  50  90  60
Shamrock TX                64  89  58  71 /  20  40  90  50
Wellington TX              66  90  60  73 /  30  50  90  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89