660
FXUS64 KAMA 031859
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
159 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

- There is a low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
  this evening and Thursday. Gusty winds will be possible with
  any of this activity, but cannot rule out a rogue wind gust up
  to 70 mph.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored across the
  Panhandles, and especially the southern Texas Panhandle, this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Upper trough over the Great Lakes Region will continue to provide
northwest flow off the Rockies. There`s a wave embedded in the
flow that will move across the central Plains and down to our area
this afternoon. Inverted V soundings with about 500-1000 J/kg of
CAPE will line up with the time of the best forcing with the wave,
mainly between 4pm and 10pm this evening. Just enough shear in the
mid levels will provide for a possible organized storm. With
1400-1700 J/kg of DCAPE the potential for 70 mph wind gusts cant
be ruled out. Doubt that the threat for hail would exceed the size
of a penny.

We`ll have another surge of warm air tomorrow, so much that Palo
Duro Canyon may reach 100 degrees. We do expect another weak
impulse in the afternoon, that might trigger an isolated storm in
the OK Panhandle. Right now leaving NBM pops, but may need to add
a 10 pop for something isolated if CAM`s pick up on anything
tomorrow. The next big push of cool air looks to be on the way
Thursday night into Friday, and that could trigger some late
evening storms in CO/KS that might expand to the northern
Panhandles overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. So that`s
something to watch.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Friday will be interesting as we have a wide variety of possible
outcomes. First off will be that we do expect the cold front to
surge south fairly early in the day so that it`s through the
Panhandles by noon. But most areas will be impacted by mid
morning. Now will the temperatures be a slow and gradual warm to
hold around 70 degrees through the day or will we see a much more
aggressive cold solution that could have us in the 50s all day.
This colder solution looks to stem from a possible strong outflow
from and MCS from CO/KS helping to push the cooler air from the
north further south. Add that to the continued north winds and low
level moisture, Friday could be either a very cool and cloudy day
that would feel very much like fall. But that is on the more
aggressive side of guidance that would fall in the bottom 5%
range. Still, it`s looking like a front will move through and
below normal temperatures are expected.

As we move deeper into the weekend, we will be watching the
remnants of now Hurricane Lorena off the Baja. There is still the
possibility that the system ejects to the north and heads right
toward the Panhandles. Right now that seems to be an outlier when
looking at the Ensemble means (somewhere in the 90th percentile
range). The Ensemble means suggest a more southerly track of the
moisture and maybe along and south of I-40 would be more favored
for moisture, but still not near as much as the bullish GFS
solution. If the more bullish scenario plays out, then we could be
looking at 1-2" of rain across much of the Texas Panhandle, with
the south more favored.

Temperature wise, we`ll be keeping an eye on how strong that front
is as well. If we go with the more aggressive cold air noted in
the short term discussion, then we could be looking at less
precipitation, but cooler temperatures in the 50s to 60s on
Saturday. But more likely we will have warmer air overtake that
cold front over the weekend and at least be in the 60s to 70s.
Either way, we do expect below normal temperatures. We will also
be watching for some showers and storms to come off the Rockies on
Sunday as northwest flow returns. Temperatures will start to
warm back up early next week as high pressure over the west
rebuilds toward the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and variable for the most part, less
than 10kts. Skies mostly clear with some high level clouds.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89