493
FXUS64 KAMA 070527
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

Rain showers continue across the north with additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms near I-40 from Amarillo to the NM/TX state
line. This activity is expected to last a few more hours with the
light rain showers across the north continuing all night. Given
the slow moving rain, have extended the Flood Watch through 6 AM.
Fog is currently developing across the southeast and east and
should spread across the area overnight. With KCDS (Childress)
already down to a quarter mile visibility, cannot rule out that
Dense Fog Advisories may be needed for portions of the area
tonight.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

-Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for heavy rain and
 flood/flash flooding potential for all of the Panhandles.

-There is a very low chance (under 15% chance) for severe
 thunderstorms this afternoon for portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

A weather system continues it slow progression eastward across the
southern plains through the rest of today and Wednesday. This
movement has shifted the bulk of this system moisture to the east
of the panhandles and allowed an mid level dry air slot to
infiltrate the panhandles from the south. This has brought an end
to the large rain shield that was over the panhandles earlier this
morning. This doesn`t mean the panhandles is dry as moisture has
wrapped around the weather system and is pushing into the
panhandles mixing with the intruding dry air. This setup will
allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to continue to form
across the panhandles through the rest of today through Wednesday.
A few of the storms may still get strong enough to cause intense
rainfall that may cause flooding through the rest of today. If
not the flood threat is shifting to the rivers, creeks, and
streams as the copious rainfall over the past few days drains into
them. The threat for flooding decreases on Wednesday as the
moisture draws down with the weather system pushing ever further
to the east. So while there will still be rain showers and
thunderstorms these will cover less and less of the panhandles and
produce ever diminishing rainfall. In fact the rain showers and
thunderstorms have a high chance of fully ending by Wednesday
evening. With all the rain that has fallen over the past few days
there is an increasing chance for fog during the overnight and
morning hours. There is a chance that the instability of the
weather system may prevent the fog formation tonight. However as
the weather system moves eastward its influence will wane while
the wet ground continues to evaporate increasing the chances that
fog will form Wednesday night. With so much available low level
moisture from the rainfall this fog has the potential to be thick
if it forms at all. With all the clouds and rainfall today remain
cool across the panhandles. This changes for Wednesday as
conditions slowly become sunnier allowing for more heating and
higher temperatures.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Thursday the weather system has a high chance of continuing to
push east out of the area while a ridge of high pressure builds
into the southern plains. A little moisture from the departed
weather system may linger across the panhandles through Thursday.
This will allow for a very low chance of a light rain shower on
Thursday. Outside this small chance for precipitation the
panhandles has a high chance of seeing dry weather as drier and
stabler conditions setup with the ridge. The dry and fair weather
conditions then have a moderate chance of lasting through the
weekend and into next week as the ridge settles over the southern
plains. Under this ridge the temperatures have a high chance of
warming each day during the weekend and into next week.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

MVFR to LIFR conditions are forecast to start this TAF cycle. Low
ceilings and rain showers are possible at all sites. Additionally,
a thunderstorm is possible at KAMA at the start of this TAF cycle.
Fog is also possible this morning which could greatly reduce
visibility at the sites. Ceilings will gradually improve and VFR
conditions should return after 18z. Winds will remain mainly out
of the north over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  43  67  44 /  40  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  61  43  68  43 /  80  10  20   0
Boise City OK              57  39  66  40 /  80  10  10   0
Borger TX                  66  46  71  46 /  50  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              63  42  70  44 /  40  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  63  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               66  46  68  47 /  30  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 59  39  68  40 /  50  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  60  41  68  41 /  80  10  10   0
Hereford TX                64  42  68  43 /  20  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                63  46  68  46 /  70  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   64  45  68  45 /  50  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                67  47  69  47 /  40  10  10   0
Wellington TX              68  47  70  49 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ001>008-
     011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05