071
FXUS64 KAMA 101949
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
249 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Strong to severe storms this evening and Monday across the
  Panhandles. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding
  as well.

- Below average high temperatures are forecast through Wednesday.
  With near normal temperatures returning each afternoon from
  Wednesday onward. Precipitation chances may return come next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Positively tilted upper trough centered just northwest of the Great
Lakes with the main trough axis moving over the Panhandles this
afternoon and evening will be the main focus on today`s severe
weather threat.  Effective shear is best to the north about 30-45kts
in the OK Panhandle, but still about 20-30kts to the south so if
storms manage to form this afternoon to early evening in the south,
we could see strong to severe storms occur.  The main challenge for
the southern Panhandles is the fairly stable lower levels, and while
a disturbance will move through this evening, providing enhanced
lift to support storm development, 18z sounding showing over 300
J/kg of MLCIN is not very optimistic.  There is some elevated
saturated layer but that would not be enough to support any
organized convection.  That being said, as we move further into the
evening more enhanced mid level moisture is expected to move in
across the south, and that would support a better elevated
environment, in which we might get 1000-1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE,
but shear will be down around 15-20kts so storm organization and
severity at that point is not looking as promising across the
south.

Further north will have a better chance at severe weather later
tonight.  As the trough axis is moving across the Rockies, we`ll
have scattered supercells develop in eastern CO and these storms are
expected to congeal into a cluster or line later this evening.  The
tail end of the storms could have some embedded supercells with them
as they move across the OK Panhandle.  PWAT`s are up there around
1.50" this evening so, very heavy rain is expected with these
storms, and the hail threat will probably be reduced do to the more
saturated nature of the sounding.  MLCAPE values look to be around
1000-1500 J/kg and shear will start to get a bit weaker overnight
(around 20 to 30 kts). There is technically decent low level
helicity that could support tornados this evening, but surface based
storms may be a challenge v.s elevated storms.  That being said,
can`t rule out the possibility of outflow from the storms in
southeast CO allowing for surface based storms to overcome the cap
and new storms to latch on to any surface boundaries that could be
present.  So while the concern is very low (~2%), a tornado or two
can`t be ruled out with the storms across the northern Panhandle
tonight.

Monday, the overall center of the upper trough doesn`t move much as
the previous low ejects up to the northeast, a new low dips down
over south central Canada, and with the the main trough axis doesn`t
move much over our area. But another disturbance embedded in the
main upper level pattern is expected to move over the Panhandle.
As a result we expect another round of showers and storms across
the area. Temperatures will not be as high, with most areas in the
80s, but dewpoints will be much higher and that will help to
reach convective temperatures easier across most ares, in addition
to the forcing from the disturbance that`s expected to move
through tomorrow. PWAT`s again tomorrow will be in the 1.30-1.60"
range so moderate to heavy rain and some minor flooding will be a
concern.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Tuesday the main trough should be through the Panhandles with cooler
more stable air in its wake.  There may be some early morning
showers, but it appears that the precipitation will be done with for
the most part.  Wednesday through Friday temperatures should be on a
rise with precipitation chances dropping off as high pressure once
again attempts to rebuild over the Four Corners, but will slowly
shift east.  By Saturday the high may be far enough east that return
monsoon moisture will be back over the Panhandles and pops should
once again be on the rise.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions to start off, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible due
to showers and storms at all TAF sites generally from 00z-12z.
KAMA will be more in the 0-06z time frame, and KDHT/KGUY will be
more in the 03-12z time frame. Winds generally out of the east to
southeast 10-15kts at KAMA and KDHT, with northerly winds mainly
out of KGUY. PROB30s currently set up for storms, but will try to
bring more prevailing groups with 00z TAFs if confidence increases
on timing.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89