702
FXUS64 KAMA 201108
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
608 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Rain continues this morning in the panhandles before it comes to
  an end late this morning.

- Thunderstorms, some severe, on Tuesday and Wednesday with
  further low chances later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A weather system is currently moving across the southern plains
this morning with the deformation area of this system over the
panhandles. This is causing the ongoing light to moderate rain
showers over the panhandles. As the system departs later this
morning it will draw away the moisture quickly ending the rain
showers. These will end from the SW and W to the E and NE. So by
the afternoon hours the panhandles will have a high chance of
being dry with sunny skies. The arrival of the dry air will allow
the panhandles to warm again with highs returning to 60s. The dry
air will linger across the panhandles through all of Monday as
well with calm weather. Temperatures have a high chance of
continuing to warm with highs reaching the 70s and 80s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The dry conditions of Monday have a high chance of coming to an
end on Tuesday as a return flow shunts gulf moisture back across
the southern plains. This gulf moisture then has a moderate chance
of sticking across the southern plains through the rest of the
week into next week. The flow aloft during this time has a
high chance of shifting to a broad trough across the west
including the southern plains. This will allow several small scale
weather system to transit the flow and pass across the southern
plains. Thus from Tuesday to the next weekend has a moderate to a
high chance of being a period of wet weather with daily rain
showers and thunderstorms.

On Tuesday the first of the small scale weather system impacts the
panhandles just as the moisture returns to the southern plains.
There is a moderate chance that the moisture will arrival in the
panhandles during the afternoon or earlier and a high chance of
arriving during the evening or later. This distinction is
important as the earlier arrival of moisture will allow it to fuel
any rain shower or thunderstorms activity on Tuesday. While the
exact numbers are still in flux the overall dynamics and
instability on Tuesday are favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms formation. There is broad consensus that the
instability in the panhandles will reach upwards of 2000 J/Kg with
little to no cap. Overall shear profiles 25 to 40 kts will allow
any thunderstorms that do form to spin creating supercells.
However, the kinematics in the low levels are unfavorable for the
generation of tornados. This means that currently the most
favored form of severe weather on Tuesday will be hail followed by
strong wind gusts.

The next small scale weather system has a moderate chance of
arriving in the southern plains towards Thursday which can
produce another round of enhanced convection.

Then there is a low chance that another small scale weather system
arrives for the weekend creating another round of enhances
convection. This may not hold as the pattern is showing some signs
that it may shift instead.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A weather system is still passing across the panhandles this
morning causing rain showers and thunderstorms. In addition this
weather system is producing low clouds of mainly MVFR to spotty
IFR. KGUY and KAMA are still being impacted by these for a few
more hours til the system draws away the moisture during the late
morning hours. This will cause a sharp end to any precipitation
and cloud decks for the terminals. The rest of the day and
tonight will have a high chance of being dry and sunny.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  41  79  49 /  70   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  67  38  81  49 /  90   0   0   0
Boise City OK              67  36  78  42 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  70  43  82  50 /  90   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              69  39  81  47 /  40   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  67  40  79  48 /  50   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               67  43  79  49 /  70   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 67  34  78  42 /  20   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  68  37  81  44 /  50   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67  38  79  47 /  40   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                65  41  79  52 / 100   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   66  43  79  50 /  90   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                67  43  79  49 /  90   0   0   0
Wellington TX              67  43  79  49 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98