084
FXUS64 KAMA 051127
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeastern Colorado
and are now moving into Cimarron county of the Oklahoma Panhandle
at the time of this writing. The overall environment is not
supportive of severe storms, but strong wind gusts and small hail
cannot be ruled out with any storms this morning. Additionally,
with high moisture content across the Panhandles, heavy rain will
also be possible with the strongest cores. CAMs are not handling
this activity very well (outside of the RRFS) but the overall
subtle mid level lift should allow showers/storms to last for at
least a few more hours this morning, so have updated the forecast
to account for the additional thunderstorms.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon. Heat
index values may reach up to 105 degrees this afternoon. Use
caution when spending prolonged time outdoors.

Thunderstorms may become strong to severe later this afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall would
be the primary hazards.

Thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday. Chances are low
for storms to become severe during this time frame, but chances
for isolated flooding remain higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Saturday, moisture profiles and surface temperatures will be high
enough to create heat index values higher than the ambient
temperature. For most place in the CWA, this will only elevate the
heat index a few degrees above the high temperatures. However, in
the Palo Duro Canyon, the maximum heat index should reach 105
degrees. Dewpoints in the mid 70`s and a high of 95 degrees will
make it feel much warmer than the actual temperature. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and evening to
highlight the heat potential.

Later in the afternoon, thunderstorms will begin to form in the
northwestern half of our CWA and progress southward throughout
the evening, and likely into the overnight hours as well.
Sufficient SBCAPE values and lapse rates, alongside modest 0-6 km
bulk shear for the first time in a while, will create a decent
environment for organized convection. Large hail and damaging
winds are the primary severe hazards. Forecast PWAT values
continue to be well above normal, so any thunderstorm that forms
will become an efficient rain producer and could lead to flooding
depending on it`s storm motion.

Sunday, surface highs should be relatively similar compared to
Saturday, but dewpoints will be lower in the combined Panhandles.
Therefore, heat index values will not exceed the actual
temperature by wide margins anywhere in the area. Thunderstorm
chances return once again to the area. Another marginal risk for
thunderstorms exists in the western zones of our CWA. Wind shear
is forecast to be lower tomorrow, but the overall environment
will still be favorable to support a severe storm or two. Damaging
winds and some hail would be the primary hazards. Of course, this
is also on top of very heavy rainfall.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Not many notable changes in the long term period regarding the upper
level dynamics. The high pressure center will still set up over the
Four Corners Region next week and slowly expand westward. One
notable change,(at least with 18Z model data), is that the high
could become suppressed later next week as a trough prepares to enter
the region. This should not chance outcome of the forecast of the
extended period much. However, it does aid in the notion that this
pattern can continue further into July. This would prevail in
keeping us on the wetter/cooler side of our climatology for this
year.

Daily highs are still expected to range in the upper 80`s and lower
90`s next week. Daily thunderstorm chances also continue, with some
days currently looking more notable than others. Therefore, we could
see some intermittent breaks from precipitation during this time
frame. Concerns with severe and flash flood potential remain low
overall, but this will have to be monitored on a case-by-case basis.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Low clouds and patchy fog are leading to LIFR to MVFR conditions
this morning. These conditions will last for a few more hours and
all sites should return to VFR by late morning. Thunderstorms will
be possible at each site starting around 00z. Have included PROB30
groups at the sites due to the thunderstorm potential at each of
the terminals. Gusty winds and low visibility will be possible at
the sites should a thunderstorm move overhead. Winds will mainly
have a easterly component for much of this TAF period with maximum
sustained winds around 10-15 kts.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05