397
FXUS64 KAMA 130506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle
  during the next 7 days.

- Below average high temperatures will continue until a warming
  trend begins later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Afternoon-evening opportunities for spotty showers and storms could
materialize across portions of the Panhandle today, as we enjoy
another day of highs in the 80s. Quality moisture content has
persisted, characterized by dew pts in the low 60s with PWATs >1"
being commonplace. Strong 700mb theta-e advection combined with
localized areas of sfc convergence will support 15-25% chances for
convective development across mainly the southwest TX Panhandle.
Gusty winds and brief downpours would be the main threat from any
activity, but severe storms and flooding rains aren`t anticipated at
this time. Subsident flow aloft will make precip much harder to come
by Monday, while promoting slightly higher afternoon temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will stay mild in the 60s
through Tuesday.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

We`re still staring down a cooler and wetter than average stretch of
weather through the rest of the week across the Panhandles. Forecast
highs hold steady in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, thanks to
stagnate flow aloft as we sit south of the jet stream. By late Wed
into Thu, models show a low-level boundary stalling in our region,
with ample moisture pooled along and behind it. Despite the lack of
synoptic support, model data paint 20-60% chances for rounds of
precipitation until Fri morning, when drier mid-level air should
take over. By late week, long range ensembles show broad high
pressure finally taking better shape across the southern CONUS. In
turn, that summer heat we`ve been dodging early this season may
start to rear its ugly head into next week. Thankfully,
probabilities to reach triple digits are less than 20% every day.
And while precipitation chances decline, they won`t entirely
disappear.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period
with mostly light and variable winds < 10kts. Some hi-res data
suggest a few sporadic low clouds could materialize later tonight
into the morning hours, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs. Chances for a stray shower/storm to develop near KAMA or
KDHT this afternoon-evening are too low to include in the TAF but
will continue to be monitored.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38