991
FXUS64 KAMA 210631
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
131 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Thunderstorms are possible in the northern Texas Panhandle and the
Oklahoma Panhandle this weekend.

A strong upper level system is expected to bring cooler
temperatures and widespread precipitation next week.

Flooding concerns increase into next week as well, given the
higher confidence in multiple rounds of scattered to widespread
precipitation.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

High pressure remains centered over the Four Corners Region of the
United States during the short term period. With no major changes in
500 mb heights over the CWA, high temperatures will remain in the
upper 80`s and 90`s range for the next couple of days. Light surface
winds will be in play both Thursday and Friday. They will generally
be southeasterly during the day, while going variable at night.
Temperatures at the Palo Duro Canyon will be closer to the upper
90`s for the next two days due to the lack of upslope flow from
stronger surface winds. PoPs also stay absent in the short term due
to weak flow aloft and poor instability during this time frame.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The main focus of the long term period continues to be the strong
upper level trough expected to impact portions of the central and
eastern CONUS next week. Before then, high will remain in the 90`s
range this weekend and PoPs will return to the forecast area,
favoring the northern zones.

By Monday, a cold front is expected to arrive in the combined
Panhandles and surface winds will shift out of the east. The NBM
still continues to lower highs for Tuesday and Wednesday,
however, we are still concerned that high temperatures are not low
enough. Model blends and the global models continue to trend
downward as well, but the global models seem to be more
aggressive. The GFS in particular looks to be the forerunner as
the coldest solution for the CWA. The model suggests highs could
be stuck in the 60`s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Even some places
are suggested to remain in the lower 60`s come Wednesday. We
believe that the NBM is adjusting fine for now this far out, so no
changes were made to the MaxTs. We will continue to monitor
trends and make adjustments when necessary, but currently the NBM
calls for highs in the 80`s on Monday while 70`s are in play both
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Precipitation will also play a factor in how cool temperatures can
be next week. Long range guidance continues to show multiple
rounds of showers with some thunderstorms each day next week. Of
course, the low resolution of the global models show a more
widespread display of rainfall; however, this forecast is not
entirely disingenuous. Limited CAPE profiles in conjunction with
the airmass forecast to enter the area next week would suggest a
more stratiform regime for rainfall. Thunderstorms will still be
possible, likely scattered or embedded amongst the rainfall. Rain
rates will also need to be assessed for this weekend and next
week. Potential thunderstorms on Sunday will start as the catalyst
for our increasing flood potential next week. Soils are expected
to become saturated quickly with persistent rainfall and high
forecast PWAT values, but if the event is to be dominated by
stratiform showers, flooding concern should be lower-end, in
theory. Still, any thunderstorm will be able to sharply elevate
the flood risk especially in areas that receive repeated rounds of
rainfall. And if showers are to sit over the same locations for
hours on end, several inches of precipitation could easily create
flooding concerns, even without a strong convective element.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

No major changes were made for the 06Z TAFs

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hrs.
Winds will become light and variable tonight into the morning
hours, settling out of the southeast towards the end of the
period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55