Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
281
FNUS71 KALY 261057
FWSALY
Spot Forecast for Butternut Fire...Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
National Weather Service Albany NY
557 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EST on November 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
An area of low pressure approaching from the west will bring
light to moderate rain this morning. Some northern sheltered
areas may see a brief period of freezing rain at the onset of
the precipitation. Some lake-effect snow is expected behind this
system in parts of the western Adirondacks Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. A larger storm system is expected to bring snow
and rain to the region for Thanksgiving Day into early Friday
before colder air returns to the region for the rest of the
holiday weekend with more lake effect snow.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain in the
morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Dewpoint............35 increasing to 42 late in the morning, then
increasing to 45 early in the afternoon
decreasing to 39 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the
west 6 to 7 mph early in the afternoon, then
shifting to the northwest 7 to 8 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph shifting to the west 9
to 15 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting
to the northwest around 17 mph late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (25500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.26 inches.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96 96 96 96 94 93 91 76 61 46 36
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC SCH
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70 90 90 80 70 60 40 20 10 10 10
Temp............39 40 41 43 45 46 47 48 48 47 44
Dewpoint........34 37 40 43 44 44 46 44 44 41 38
RH..............82 89 96 100 96 93 96 86 86 79 79
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE S W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8
20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE S SW W W W NW NW
Transp wind spd.13 13 13 12 10 9 9 12 15 17 17
LVORI...........4 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 3 3
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 8 8 7 6 8 14 21 26 22
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Dewpoint............35 decreasing to 27.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27 17 15 13 11 12 12 13 24 34 45 46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............42 40 38 37 35 35 33 33 32 31 31 30
Dewpoint........37 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 28 27
RH..............82 79 82 82 85 82 85 82 85 85 88 88
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.16 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 8
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Dewpoint............28.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph increasing to 12 to 20 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon, then
decreasing to 7 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (53300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46 47 48 49 50 53 57 60 57 54 51 57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............30 30 31 35 37 40 42 42 42 42 41 39
Dewpoint........27 27 29 29 29 29 28 27 M M 28 28
RH..............88 88 92 78 72 64 58 55 54 56 59 63
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5
20 FT wind gust.9 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 9 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 9 13 17 20 18 16 14 12 9 8 7
LVORI...........5 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 6 22 40 53 53 47 38 27 16 7 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...JPV
Requested by...Chris Marsden
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2427296.1/ALY
.DELDT 11/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christopher.Marsden2@mass.gov