Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
905
FNUS71 KALY 081129
FWSALY
Spot Forecast for Avery Rum Fire...NYS Department of Environmental Conservation
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on October 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Showers will gradually end from northwest to southeast this
morning in the wake of a cold frontal passage, with much cooler
air filtering into the region through Thursday. Minimum RH values
drop to around 45 to 50% this afternoon, with wind gusts of 15-20 mph.
Winds tonight remain breezy with gusts of around 10 mph, but RH recovers
to 80 to 90%. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected
Thursday night. Fair weather and seasonable temperatures are then
expected Friday into Saturday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
early in the morning, then slight chance of
rain late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Dewpoint............46 decreasing to 37.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (99700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86 68 49 31 33 34 36 32 28 24
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............50 51 54 56 58 59 60 59 59 58
Dewpoint........48 47 47 46 44 42 40 39 38 37
RH..............93 86 77 69 60 53 47 47 45 45
20 FT wind dir..NW N N N N N N NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.15 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 20 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 1.8 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 4.6
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.9 13 14 17 18 20 21 21 21 20
LVORI...........9 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 15 22 42 66 80 100 97 96 79
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
after 3 am. Widespread frost after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Dewpoint............36 decreasing to 31 overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17 17 27 9 4 6 7 8 2 2 3 3
Weather cov..... ARS WID WID
Weather type.... FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............54 51 48 46 44 43 41 39 39 37 34 34
Dewpoint........37 37 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29
RH..............52 59 68 71 73 73 76 79 76 79 85 82
20 FT wind dir..NW N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.18 16 15 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.16 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Widespread frost early in
the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............25.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (52700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 4 4 3
Weather cov.....WID WID WID
Weather type....FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............33 32 34 37 41 44 46 48 49 50 51 51
Dewpoint........27 26 26 27 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24
RH..............78 78 72 67 55 47 42 39 37 36 35 35
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N N NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 1.0 2.5 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.2
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.13 13 13 18 18 16 15 14 13 12 12 10
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 11 40 53 49 52 53 51 50 46 38
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR PR
$$
Forecaster...Main
Requested by...Andrew Flynn
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2523008.0/ALY
.DELDT 10/08/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL RayBrook.Dispatch@dec.ny.gov