043
FXUS61 KALY 081836
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
236 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Earlier showers have ended, with partial clearing and drier air
moving into the region. Dry weather continues through the first
half of the weekend, with cool daytime highs and chilly
overnight lows. A coastal storm may then bring additional
chances for rain, along with gusty winds, Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2:35 PM EDT...Primary cold front has departed off to our
east, while a secondary cold front associated with the axis of
an upper trough will track through the region this afternoon
into the evening. This secondary cold front may bring some
isolated additional showers, especially in the ADKs where there
local enhancement due to N/NW upslope is expected. Any
additional showers will be light, with little appreciable
additional qpf. Current visible satellite imagery shows that
skies have become partly cloudy across the region in the wake of
the front. Temperatures range from mid to upper 60s in the
Hudson Valley to upper 50s in the high terrain areas. Winds also
become breezy this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 mph possible.

Tonight...The coldest airmass of the season will move overhead
in tandem with the upper trough axis. 850 mb temperatures drop
below zero Celsius for most of the region, and as low as -4 to -6C
in the ADKs. This will be an advective cold with sfc high
pressure remaining to our west. The resulting pressure gradient
will allow for winds to remain breezy tonight, which may help
prevent frost formation. Nevertheless, with lows of 30-35F for
the Mohawk Valley and Catskills, we continued the existing frost
advisory there for tonight. Given similar temperatures in the
southern Greens and Rensselaer Plateau, we also expanded the
advisory to include these areas as well. Lows across the region will
range from the upper 20s in the high terrain to low 40s near the
I-84 corridor.

Thursday through Friday night...The 1034 mb sfc high builds
overhead from the west Thursday into Thursday night. This will
allow the pressure gradient to relax, so winds diminish as we go
through the day Thursday. Thursday will be much cooler, with
highs in the 40s for the high terrain and 50s for valley areas.
Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions expected Thursday
night, which will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s even
for most valley areas. Therefore, we undercut NBM lows by
several degrees and continued the existing freeze watch for the
entire region, except for the ADKs where the growing season has
ended. Friday high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than those on Thursday as upper ridging builds overhead and the
airmass aloft begins to moderate. Lows remain chilly Friday
night, but will be mainly in the 20s for the high terrain to 30s
in the valleys. Additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed.
Large-scale subsidence should ensure dry weather through this
portion of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday...Saturday starts off dry and cool, with the surface
high moving off to our east. At the same time, clouds will begin
to increase as an upper low tracks from the Great Lakes towards
the Ohio Valley, and a separate upper disturbance begins to move
up the east coast. Highs will be in the 60s for valley areas and
50s to low 60s for the high terrain, with overnight lows in the
30s to 40s. Some showers could reach southern areas by Sunday
morning...

Sunday through Tuesday...Aforementioned upper-level features are
expected to phase off the east coast, allowing for a sfc low to
strengthen as it moves up the east coast. There remains a lot of
uncertainty in whether this system may get suppressed to the
south of our CWA, or if sfc high pressure retreats northwards
quick enough to allow for another round of widespread rain. Best
chance for soaking rain looks to be from I-90 southwards, which
is where we have the highest PoPs (40-55%). At this time, there
is too much uncertainty in the track of this system to deviate
much from NBM guidance, but we did bump winds up as the pressure
gradient looks quite impressive between this deepening sfc low
and the area of high pressure retreating to the north. Would not
be surprised to see some gusts in excess of 30 kt across
portions of the Mid Hudson Valley or northwestern CT Sunday
night into early next week. Given persistent E/NE winds and long
fetch over the Atlantic, we may have to monitor for potential
tidal flooding on the Hudson River early next week. Confidence
is also low in how long the low will linger off the east coast,
but there seems to be a decent consensus that we should begin to
dry out by late Tuesday. Temperatures during this time period
will likely range from 50s/60 for highs to 30s/40s for overnight
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z FRI...VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours
for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with post frontal stratocumulus and mid
level clouds persisting. Most of the clouds bases will be in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range, though a brief lapse to MVFR levels is
possible near KPSF. The skies will clear early this evening with
sct-bkn mid level clouds 8-10 kft AGL becoming clear by 04Z/Thu.
High pressure building in will bring clear/mostly clear skies
through the end of the TAF cycle. The winds will be north to
northwest at 8-15 KT with gusts 18-25 KT. The winds will
decrease tonight to 5-10 KT prior to 06Z/Thu and then will
increase from the N/NW at around 10 KT late tomorrow morning
with gusts to around 20 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Wide Spread FROST.
Friday: No Operational Impact. Wide Spread FROST.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Columbus Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ038>040-
     047-048-051-054-058-063-082.
MA...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     VTZ013>015.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...15