255
FXUS61 KALY 182352
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
752 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 720 PM...A severe thunderstorm is tracking into the
eastern Catskills early this evening and we issued a severe
thunderstorm warning valid through 8PM with areas of rain
showers elsewhere ahead of an incoming cold front. The severe
storm is tracking into an unfavorable environment so it likely
will weaken as it nears the mid- Hudson Valley. We will maintain
a close eye over the coming hours; however, the window for
severe weather is quickly coming to a close as the cold front
approaches. Any severe storms will likely be before 10PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of showers and storms this evening will end overnight
as a cold front pushes through the Northeast.

2) Dry conditions return for the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week before additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms swiftly return beginning Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest radar imagery shows areas of showers and a few
thunderstorms in eastern NY and western New England with
lightning mainly near and south of I-90 where instability is a
little stronger. Today`s severe weather threat ended up being
much lower than previous anticipated as a warm front remained
stalled to our south/west. This kept mist/fog and low clouds
around much of the day, severely limited instability. Smoke
from the Canadian wildfires also resulted in lower visibility
and reduced air quality. While we cannot rule out lightning
strikes through 9-10 PM including in areas of stratiform rain,
the threat for severe storms has mainly ended. The main cold
front will push into our western Adirondack areas towards
Midnight and continue pushing south and eastward across eastern
NY and western New England into the early morning hours. Winds
will shift to the northwest and turn breezy once the cold front
arrives (gusts up to 20-25kts) with breezy winds continuing into
Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Once the cold front associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system moves through the region
tonight, dry conditions will regain hold of the region to finish
out the weekend and begin the new work week. Temperatures will
even be pleasantly just below or near seasonable through this
week, so there are no concerns for oppressive heat at this time.
That said, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
will come beginning Tuesday as we remain in a broad trough
pattern through much of the week. Tuesday into Wednesday look to
be the wettest days at this time with the potential for
additional severe thunderstorms Tuesday depending on the timing
of the next frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms
continue tracking through the terminals this evening ahead of
an incoming cold front. The main threat for thunderstorms is
focused at POU as a severe storm from the Catskills tracks into
the mid-Hudson Valley through 02 UTC. Lightning and heavy
downpours resulting in IFR vis and cigs is the primary hazards
with brief wind gusts up to 40kts. Elsewhere, the thunderstorm
potential is lower with just a few isolated strikes 10 to 15
miles south and east of ALB between 23 - 2330 UTC. Through 02 -
03 UTC MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue at ALB with
IFR vis/cigs at GFL and IFR vis at POU from smoke and fog. PSF
remains VFR but with incoming rain showers, we included a TEMPO
for IFR vis through 03 UTC. By 03 - 06 UTC, vis and cigs should
start trending upwards at ALB, GFL and PSF as the cold front
approaches with the front passing from northwest to southeast by
05 - 07 UTC. MVFR vis from mist/fog likely continues at POU
until around 10 - 12 UTC when the front finally arrives.

A noticeable wind shift the northwest will occur once the cold
front arrives overnight into early Sunday with sustained winds
increasing to 8-12kts and gusts up to 15 - 25kts.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12/31
AVIATION...31