525
FXUS61 KALY 111450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1050 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With a southerly flow in place, above normal
temperatures and breezy conditions are expected this afternoon.  A
cold front will allow for temperatures to return closer to normal
for Wednesday while a fast moving disturbance will bring some light
rain and snow on Wednesday night.  Temperatures should rebounded
back above normal by the weekend before another system impacts the
region with widespread rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

 - Above normal temperature with gusty winds and dry conditions
   will allow for an elevated risk for fire spread in southern
   areas today

Discussion:
.UPDATE...The forecast largely remains on track with this update
with only minor adjustments needed to ensure temperatures and
winds reflect latest obs and trends. Bumped up the high
temperatures a bit today based on the expectation for sufficient
mixing, lack of obstructed solar radiation, and duration of time
within the warm sector of the low pressure system to our north.
Based on these changes, ALB could come closer to at least tying
the previous record of 70F. Elsewhere, all remains unchanged
with additional details to follow in the previous discussion
below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 645 AM EDT...A stationary front is located across central
parts of the forecast area, but this boundary is starting to
lift northward as a warm front. With some weak warm advection
beginning, this surface front should steadily lift northward
through the morning hours and will be located across northern
New England by the late morning hours. In the wake of the
boundary, the low level flow will become out of the south,
allowing for even milder air to move into the region.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies, with little cloud
cover associated with the frontal boundary. Aside from some
passing thin cirrus clouds for northern areas, skies will be
fairly clear to start the day. The combination of the sunny
skies and mild southerly flow will allow temps to quickly rise
this morning. After lows in the 20s and 30s, it should quickly
warm through the 40s and 50s this morning, with valley areas
reaching into the lower to middle 60s by the afternoon hours
(high terrain areas will remain in the 50s). A few spots could
come close to the upper 60s.  The record high at Albany for
today is 70 and while it may be a few degrees short, it will be
rather close.

The good daytime mixing will promote gusty winds, with some
wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range, especially within the Hudson
Valley and other areas that channel southerly flow. With
dewpoints staying in the 20s and 30s, it will be rather dry
today (see the Fire Weather section for more details on how this
will impact fire spread risk for today).

As a cold front starts to approach, a few light rain showers are
possible towards the early evening hours and clouds may start to
increase as well. The low levels will be rather dry, so most of
the precip will be virga and evaporate before reaching the
surface, but a stray shower or sprinkle can`t be ruled out,
especially for northern areas, where RH will be a little higher.
Any precip should be very light and brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Fast moving storm system could bring a light accumulation
   snow to some areas on Wednesday night, resulting in locally
   slippery travel.

Discussion:

Cold front should quickly cross through this evening, allowing
for colder air to return for tonight as a cold surface high
slides across southern Canada. The flow will switch to the north
and temps will be crashing tonight with decreasing clouds.
Northern areas will be chilly in the teens and 20s, with low to
mid 30s across far southern areas.

Wednesday will be a seasonable and dry day with temps in the
30s and 40s. After a sunny morning, clouds will be increasing
ahead of the next approaching system for the afternoon hours.

A fast moving shortwave will be passing by to the north on
Wednesday night. The lingering surface boundary should be close
to or just south of the region. There should be just enough
moisture around to allow for a period of light precip, although
models don`t agree on the exact placement. With enough cold air
in place, this could be snow for most areas as long as boundary
layer temps get close to freezing. A widespread coating to an
inch of snow looks to occur, with some locally higher totals
across the higher terrain. For now, will keep the best axis of
precip from around the Capital Region towards the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT, although this is still a little
uncertain. Far southern areas may see little precip, with just
some light rain or rain/snow mix possible. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 20s to mid 30s for all areas. Some locally
slippery travel is possible Wednesday night for areas that see
snowfall.

Most of the precip should be ending by Thursday morning,
although clouds may linger through the day as low level moisture
gets trapped beneath an inversion. Despite this, temps should
still reach into the 40s by afternoon for valley areas, allowing
the light snowfall to melt in most areas. Some clearing may
finally occur by late Thursday night with lows in the upper 20s
to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in above normal temperatures Friday through Sunday.

- Moderate confidence (40-60% chance) of at least one inch of
widespread rainfall next weekend.

Discussion:

Increasingly high amplitude upper level flow favoring ridging off
the eastern seaboard and troughing across the Plains/western Great
Lakes region during this time period. This pattern will favor above
normal temperatures through much of the extended, with greatest
departures expected next Saturday-Sunday immediately ahead of
incoming cold front within strong southerly flow regime. Showers
will also increase from west to east late Saturday into Sunday, with
a period of moderate-locally heavy rainfall possible. Current NBM 24-
hour probs for >1 inch rainfall are generally 40-60% ending
12Z/Monday. Will have to watch for snowmelt and resulting
hydrological response, particularly areas north and west of Albany
where a deep and increasingly ripe snowpack remains.

Daytime highs mainly in the 50s Friday-Saturday, and 60s Sunday,
with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Slight cooling Monday in the
wake of the front with highs in the 40s to lower 50s though may drop
during the day. Showers may linger into at least a portion of
Monday, especially for areas east of the Hudson River should a wave
of low pressure developing along departing frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through at least 03Z/Wed, with just some
patchy high/mid level clouds. Some lower cloud patches may develop
in the wake of a cold front passing southward at KGFL, KALB and KPSF
between 03Z-08Z/Wed. Light/variable winds will become south to
southwest and increase to 8-15 KT by late morning with gusts up to
20-25 KT possible. Winds shift into the west/northwest at 8-12 KT
between 23Z/Tue-03Z/Wed as one front passes through, then into the
north/northwest between 03Z-07Z/Wed as the main cold front passes
south. A brief period of low level wind shear is possible around
13Z/Tue at KGFL as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the
south/southwest to 30-35 KT while surface winds remain
light/variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fairly dry weather has been in place across much of the region
since last fall. Since January 1st, precipitation has been
running about 1 to 3 inches below normal. While high terrain and
northern areas continue to have a snow pack in place, the snow
has melted out in most valley and southern areas.

Our region will be under the influence of a mild southerly flow
for today. During peak afternoon heating, high temperatures will
be reaching into the 60s for many valley areas with southerly
wind gusts up to 30 mph. RH values will be as low as 25 to 30
percent for the southern half of the region.

Based on these conditions and coordination with state partners,
a Special Weather Statement has been issued for parts of Ulster,
Dutchess, Litchfield and Berkshires Counties, as the low RH,
gusty winds and dry conditions will allow for an elevated risk
for fire spread for today.

Cooler temperatures, less wind and higher RH values are expected
by Wednesday. The next chance for significant precipitation will
be over the weekend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis