111
FXUS61 KALY 132313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
713 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will push eastward across the region
into this evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A
secondary front will cross the area overnight into Thursday with
additional isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially south and east of the Capital
District. Dry and warm conditions return Friday and Saturday
before another cold front brings additional showers and
thunderstorms to end the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

 - Showers and thunderstorms will cross the region into this
   evening. Some of the storms could bring strong to locally
   damaging winds.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a prefrontal
trough across eastern New York and will continue to slowly push
eastward into western New England into the early evening hours.
These storms initially developed along a leftover outflow
boundary from convection in western New York earlier this
morning. Some of these storms have become severe resulting in
downed trees and wires. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows between
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE have developed across the region. While
0-6km shear is not too strong (20 kt or less), these storms
have been able to develop strong enough cores aloft (with DCAPE
values >700 J/kg) to bring locally wet downbursts to parts of
the area. Will continue to monitor some strong to locally severe
storms through the afternoon hours. The greater coverage of
thunderstorms are expected for areas south of Albany but some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur across the
Upper Hudson Valley into southern Vermont. The lowest coverage
of storms will be across the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks.

Prior to and ahead of these storms, it remains quite warm with
temperatures reaching the lower 90s for much of the Hudson
Valley into Litchfield County, CT. With higher humidity today
(dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s), heat index (feels-
like temperatures) were able to rise into the 95-100F range for
a brief time in some locations. Once the showers and
thunderstorms arrive, it will bring rain-cooled air with
temperatures falling back into the 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this evening
following the loss of daytime heating. Patchy low level clouds
and/or fog will likely develop overnight. Temperatures will fall
back into the 60s to near 70 tonight. The main cold front will
cross the region overnight into Thursday afternoon. Ahead of
this front, continued warm and humid conditions, along with an
approaching weak upper shortwave, should allow for additional
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours, mainly for area from around the Capital
District and points south and east. Highs will reach the upper
70s to upper 80s.

Canadian high pressure builds into the region on Friday with
mainly dry weather and more comfortable humidity levels. As the
high drifts to the east on Saturday, a warmer and more humid day
is expected with a few diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms possible across the eastern Catskills. The next
chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be on
Sunday as another upper level shortwave and cold front cross
the region.

Forecast uncertainty increases early next week as the front from
Sunday looks to stall somewhere around the mid-Atlantic states.
Another wave of low pressure may track along the front and bring
the potential for additional rainfall pending the track of the
low. North of the front, temperatures will return to near to
slightly below normal levels with highs in the 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the 50s (with some 40s across the higher
elevations).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thru 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through early tonight
before a cold front moves into the region from the northwest. Ahead
of the front, low stratus and fog/mist will develop with
stagnant flow and increased surface moisture from rainfall
today. MVFR ceilings are expected at KALB/KPOU, with IFR
ceilings and visibilities at KPSF/KGFL. There is a low chance of
LIFR fog development, though confidence is low in this TAF with
the low stratus development. Conditions will improve with the
passage of the front by midday Thursday. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm with the frontal passage Thursday
afternoon, but low confidence precludes mention in the current
TAF.

Expect the winds to become light to calm tonight, and then increases
from the northwest to north at 5-10 KT late Thursday morning
into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Sat Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
DISCUSSION...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speck