565
FXUS61 KALY 281708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warmer than the last few days with
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, a few of
which may be severe. Tomorrow will remain warm but will be less
humid and partly to mostly sunny. Very warm and humid weather is
expected Monday and Tuesday, with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday ahead of a cold frontal
passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon and evening, with the main threats being damaging
  winds and locally heavy rain.

Discussion:
As of 3:40 AM EDT...1006 m sfc low is now tracking from
southeastern Ontario into southwestern Quebec. This sfc low has
dragged the 850 mb warm front well to the north of our region,
but the low-levle and sfc warm fronts remain to our west across
western/central NY. With enough influence from ridging aloft,
we are seeing relatively dry conditions aside from a few showers
tracking into southern VT. A few additional showers and
possibly a thunderstorm will be possible through early this
morning within the low-level warm advection/isentropic lift as
the sfc warm front continues to lift north towards our region.
Low-level SE onshore flow is resulting in abundant moisture
trapped beneath an inversion around 850 mb as seen on the 00z
KALY sounding, so we are seeing mainly overcast skies with low
to mid-level stratus. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to
around 60, with a breezy southeast wind for most areas.

Today, the surface low tracks eastwards through southern
Quebec, allowing the sfc warm front to lift northeastwards
through our region fairly quickly this morning. We will get well
into the warm sector this afternoon, with temps climbing into
the 80s for areas along and south of I-90 and dew points in the
upper 60s to around 70. Then, the system`s cold front
approaches from the northwest this afternoon and evening,
bringing with it increasing shower/thunderstorm chances. Some of
these storms may become severe. After any AM showers/storms
dissipate, most of the day looks dry until these PM
showers/storms arrive. Timing for these showers and potentially
severe storms looks to be mid to late afternoon in the Mohawk
Valley, late afternoon and early evening around the Capital
District, and this evening into early tonight southeast of the
Capital District...

     As far as the severe threat goes, we should see more breaks
of sun this afternoon that should allow the atmosphere to
destabilize with MLCAPE values increasing to around 1500 J/kg
for much of the region, especially along and south of I-90.
This instability will overlap with around 30-35kt of deep-layer
shear, which while not off the charts should certainly be
sufficient for some more organized convection. The 0-6 km shear
vector will be oriented somewhat perpendicular to the
approaching frontal boundary, which may allow for a few discrete
cells initially. However, fairly strong low-level convergence
along/ahead of the cold front and relatively straight hodographs
support convection evolving into a line or broken line segments
as it moves south and east through the region. The primary
threat will be damaging winds, as DCAPE values climb to >750
J/kg this afternoon. Some marginally severe hail also can`t be
ruled out with any discrete cells initially. While the tornado
threat looks low due to lack of low-level directional shear,
locally backed winds in the Hudson Valley means that an isolated
tornado can`t be completely ruled out here.

Given all of the above, we collaborated with SPC and
neighboring offices on a possible upgrade to a slight risk
today, especially for our NY zones along and south of I-90.
While the marginal risk was maintained across our region, a
targeted upgrade to a slight risk remains possible with future
updates to the convective outlook. Potential factors that could
work against said upgrade are weak mid-level lapse rates, more
clouds around that prevent as much instability as currently
expected, and/or the fact that the convection may not get into
the Mid Hudson Valley until around or after sunset as
instability begins to wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Nevertheless, we will continue to mention isolated to scattered
severe storms this afternoon and evening.

We will also have to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rain
with any thunderstorms today, as there is plenty of instability,
PWATs of 1.7-2.0" and warm cloud depths of 10-12 kft that will
lead to efficient warm rain processes. Given moderately fast
(~30-40 kt) storm motions and antecedent dry conditions, we
would likely need training/backbuilding of convection to have
flash flooding issues. WPC has maintained their marginal risk
ERO for almost our entire CWA, which seems appropriate given the
setup.

Behind the cold front, convection should diminish this evening
into the first half of tonight. Temperatures drop back into the
50s to 60s for overnight lows, with some patchy fog possible for
areas that see appreciable rain this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Heat index values of 90-95F Monday afternoon may result in the
  need for heat advisories for some valley areas south of the
  Capital District

Discussion:
Sunday, flow becomes zonal aloft with surface high pressure
building over the region. large-sclae subsidence will result in
a dry day. It will be less humid, but still on the warm side
with temperatures in the 80s for most valley areas. With the
surface high remaining overhead Sunday night, winds becoming
calm, and mainly clear skies, temperatures should drop back into
the 50s to 60s for overnight lows. Patchy radiation fog will be
possible in the typical valley areas.

Monday, heights rise aloft as weak upper ridging builds over the
region. 850 mb temperatures climb to +17 to +19C, while will
result in highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s for many
valley areas. With upper 60s dew points, heat indices may
approach advisory criteria, but confidence is not yet high
enough for advisory issuance. Most of the day Monday remains
dry, although a few showers or a thunderstorm could make it into
our western areas towards sunset ahead of an approaching cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday
  associated with a cold front passage. Some stronger storms may
  occur south and east of Albany.

Discussion:

Active weather expected Mon night into Tue, as a cold front and
associated upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes moves
across the region bringing showers/T-storms. Guidance trending
faster with this system, which would limit the severe threat,
especially from around Albany north/west. Some stronger storms may
occur south/east of Albany as the cold front moves through into Tue
afternoon. Otherwise, there is a threat for locally heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding as PWAT anomalies rise to around +2 to
+3 STDEV. Warm/humid conditions will persist until the cold front
moves through, with cooler/drier air filtering in Tue night.

Dry conditions expected on Wed as weak surface high pressure builds
in with zonal flow aloft. Temperatures look to be near normal. The
next chance of scattered showers/T-storms will be on Thu, as a broad
upper level trough becomes established across the Great Lakes and
Northeast, with a potential short wave moving through the mean
trough. NW flow persists into Fri, although with less of chance for
showers as drier air moves in with high pressure building in from
the west. Temperatures should remain near normal Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs will improve to VFR
and become mainly BKN during the afternoon, as a warm front
lifts north of the region. SCT TSRA are expected later this
afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. Will continue to advertise PROB30 mentions for
now as latest CAMs remain in disagreement on exact timing of
storms for the terminals, though confidence is higher for
impacts mainly at KALB/KPOU where coverage is likely to be
higher along the cold front. Once it passes, winds will become
light to calm overnight, allowing for the development of fog/low
stratus with residual moisture at KPSF/KPOU overnight.
Conditions improve areawide to VFR late tonight with high
pressure moving in. Winds today will be initially be southerly
around 5-10 kt with gusts around 20 kt at KALB, increasing to
5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds becoming light to calm overnight,
and increase out of the west briefly Sunday morning to around 5
kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speck