994
FXUS61 KALY 230218
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1018 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dreary conditions continue through tomorrow. Periods of
light rain showers through Saturday when a surface low pressure
system finally departs the Northeast. Warming trend begins
Sunday through midweek with high temperatures returning to
seasonal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1015 PM EDT, bands of rain, some moderate in
intensity, continue to pivot westward into southern VT and the
Berkshires. There has been some snow mixed in at times for
elevations above 2000 feet in southern VT per social media
reports and also via New England 511 webcams. Thus far, most
accumulations have been on colder surfaces.

Expect bands of light to moderate rain to persist through 2 AM
for areas mainly east of I-87, with steadiest/heaviest rain
across southern VT. Additional periods of wet snow will also
remain possible above 2000 feet in southern VT, where up to an
inch could occur. The rain may occasionally extend to areas
immediately west of I-87 at times through 2 AM, before shifting
back eastward thereafter.

Most of the rain should taper off to patchy drizzle by
daybreak.

[PREVIOUS]...Periods of light rain continue through tonight
across eastern New York and western New England as we`re
inbetween two surface low pressure systems. One located off the
Atlantic Coast that`s contributing to the steady rainfall over
western New England and another located over the Great Lakes
region contributing to the scattered rain showers over eastern
New York. Both continue to move north and east tonight
contributing to the continuation of rain showers tonight. For
southern Vermont, snowfall amounts continue to trend down for
less than half of an inch for locations above 2000 feet and the
highest peaks up to one inch. While snowflakes could fly tonight
for locations as low as 1500 feet as temperatures hover below
36 degrees, it`ll be mostly a cold rain with a brief period
between 2 AM and 5 AM before sunrise for a mix of rain and snow.
Temperatures continue to remain cool tonight with lows in the
30s and 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering light rain showers are in store to begin Memorial Day
weekend as a surface low pressure system heads north and east away
from eastern New York and western New England. The Mid-Hudson Valley
could be missed from the precipitation chances and be mostly to
partly cloudy for Saturday. High temperatures tomorrow range in the
40s for the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens while elsewhere
should range in the 50s. The highest peaks of the southern
Adirondacks could see Saturday morning a mix of rain and snow
showers, but latest probabilities for early morning showers are less
than 30 percent. Low temperatures Saturday morning range in the 30s
and 40s. One more chilly evening Saturday into Sunday morning with
temperatures ranging in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Return to seasonal temperatures begins Monday (60s and 70s)

Discussion:
While low chances (less than 30 percent) for daily light rain
showers continue Sunday through Wednesday morning due to
multiple upper level shortwave troughs moving through, a period
of dry conditions are favored for the end of Memorial Day
weekend during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Temperatures finally begin a warming trend Sunday with highs
ranging in the 50s and 60s. We warm up into the 60s and 70s for
Monday into midweek. Wednesday begins the uncertainty of
precipitation as an upper level low could move in and bring
higher chances (40-60 percent) for rain shower activity to
eastern New York and western New England. But the track could
shift this far out in the forecast period with newer forecast
model guidance and forecast confidence on exactly who sees a
rain shower for Wednesday and beyond is low (less than 30%).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bands of mainly light rain will continue across the TAF sites
through this evening, tapering to patchy drizzle after
04Z-06Z/Fri except after 08Z/Fri at KPSF. Despite the rain,
Vsbys should mainly remain VFR to MVFR. Cigs should lower from
VFR to MVFR overnight, with areas of IFR possible at KPSF
especially after 09Z/Fri. MVFR Cigs and VFR/MVFR Vsbys should
linger through most of Friday, with a few areas of IFR
Cigs/Vsbys possible within showers/drizzle as a weak frontal
system moves eastward. Some improvement to higher MVFR or VFR
may occur after 20Z/Fri at KPOU.

Northeast to east winds 5-10 KT will gradually back into the
north at less than 5 KT later tonight through Friday morning,
then shifting into the southwest to west Friday afternoon at
5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures for May 22:

Albany: 52F (2005)
Glens Falls: 52F (2005)
Poughkeepsie: 56F (2005, 2003)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...KL/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
CLIMATE...Rathbun