594
FXUS61 KALY 052026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
426 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid this afternoon with some isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms mainly north and west of the Capital
District. Any severe storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds. More widespread showers and thunderstorms develop
tomorrow as a cold front stalls overhead. While temperatures
will not be quite as warm, humidity remains high so storms will
be capable of heavy downpours. Some storms, especially in
western New England, may becomes severe producing damaging
winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

 -Temperatures near 90 degrees this afternoon along with
  increasing humidity levels will lead to high heat index
  values. Minor (Level 1 of 4) to locally Moderate (Level 2 of
  4) HeatRisk across the area with an increased risk for heat
  stroke and heat exhaustion for sensitive populations,
  including the elderly and very young.

 -Marginal risk (Outlook Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon into this evening, with the main threat being
  damaging wind gusts. Coverage of storms will only be isolated
  to scattered, and mainly north and west of the Capital
  District.

Discussion:

A hot and muggy afternoon continues across eastern NY and
western New England as temperatures continue to climb into the
mid to upper 80s with low 90s in the mid-Hudson Valley. Given
dew points in the 60s, the heat index values or "feel-like"
temperatures are uncomfortably in the low 90s for much of
the Hudson and even parts of the Mohawk Valley. The southern/western
Adirondacks are not quite as warm given more diurnal clouds.
Latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows our incoming
cold front positioned well to our west over southern Canada into
the Ohio Valley with weak ridging still over most of eastern NY
into western New England. However, as the front gradually
approaches, the ridge is beginning to flatten mainly north and
west of the Capital District with a few showers trying to
percolate in response to the falling heights. However, the mid-
level cap is still strong and preventing updraft growth. Latest
CAMs are not overly enthused on the coverage of convection even
later this afternoon with generally isolated to widely scattered
storms developing after 4PM mainly in the western/southern
Adirondack, western Mohawk Valley and Upper Hudson Valley. Given
surface-based CAPE values on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis
ranging 1 - 2k J/kg and effective shear values 25-30kts,
updrafts could grow upscale in these areas once the cap erodes
away resulting in strong to locally severe storms. With plenty
of mid-level dry air as seen on the 12 UTC ALY sounding and
forecast soundings, DCAPE values are also quite high today
nearing 1000 J/kg so damaging winds are the primary hazard from
any severe storms and SPC continues its Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for much of the area with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
introduced into southwest Mohawk Valley and northern/eastern
Catskills.

Storm activity diminishes with the loss of daytime heating this
evening but with the front continuing to progress eastward, we
maintained chance POPs north and west of the Capital District.
However, the severe threat diminishes overnight. Otherwise, it
remains muggy and warm tonight with increased cloud coverage and
still some showers/isolated storms around. Only expecting
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message:

- Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with
  storms capable of producing heavy downpours resulting in
  isolated instances of flash flooding and/or ponding of water
  in low-lying and urban areas, especially if storms repeatedly
  impact an area. WPC maintains its Marginal Risk (level 1 to
  4) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

- Storms will also be capable of becoming locally strong to
  severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. SPC maintains
  is marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 to 5) across
  eastern NY and southern VT with a slight risk (level 2 to 5)
  in western MA and Litchfield County, CT.

Discussion:

Our front stalls across the region tomorrow with the conveyor
belt of stronger southwesterly winds ranging 25-35kts overhead.
Once daytime heating kicks in by mid to late morning, showers
and thunderstorms look to develop along the thermal/moisture
gradient positioned northeast to southwest from southern VT,
through the Capital District into the eastern Catskills. As a
few embedded shortwaves within the faster flow aloft track along
the front, guidance continues to show a wave of low pressure
riding along the boundary tomorrow afternoon producing more
widespread areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Given the
increased coverage of precipitation and cloud coverage, overall
instability will be lower near and north/west of Albany.
However, areas from the mid-Hudson Valley into western MA and NW
CT will remain ahead of the front in the more unstable air mass
with the HREF showing 30 - 40% of SBCAPE values exceeding 2000
J/kg and higher 0-6km shear values reaching 20 - 35kts. Forecast
soundings show more of a tall skinny cape sounding with
freezing heights over 10kft and PWAT values around 1.50" so our
primary concern is for potential flooding given the potential
for repeated rounds of convection and rain resulting in poor
drainage/urban flooding or even isolated flash flooding should
storms train over an area. We collaborated with WPC who
considered an upgrade to a slight risk; however, given 3-hrly
HREF probability match mean values only range 0.5 - 1.50" with
isolated values up to 2" and 3-hrly FFG values sit between 2.50
- 3", we sided against an upgrade. We continue to message the
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and will monitor potential
  flooding/hydro issues as convection develops. A secondary
  concern is for storms to become severe with widespread
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across eastern NY with a slight
  risk introduced in western New England where SPC upgraded to a
  slight risk (level 2 of 5) in collaboration with BOX.
  Damaging winds will be the primary hazard from any storms
  especially should isolated bowing segments develop as shear
  vectors remain oriented parallel to the boundary supporting
  more of a linear storm mode. Otherwise, not nearly as hot
  tomorrow with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80 but dew
  points uncomfortable in the 60s maintaining muggy conditions.


Areas of rain continues into the evening as waves of low
pressure ride along and lift the boundary slightly northward. We
maintained likely POPs (50 - 60% chance) overnight along the
stalled front with dew points staying elevating supporting
muggy conditions.

The front gradually slides into western New England Saturday as
an upper level trough in southern Canada pushes eastward.
Additional areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible
along the front again once we reach peak heating but as the
front shift eastward, the shower/storms will shift along with
it. SPC only has our area in "general thunder" as SB CAPE values
along and ahead of the front remain around 1000 J/kg.
Therefore, we trend likely POPs east through the day into
western New England with POPs trending downwards in eastern NY.
As winds shift to the west in the wake of the front, westerly
winds will advect in a drier air mass with winds even turning
slightly breezy as high pressure builds eastward. This will
bring much more comfortable conditions through the day as skies
clear and humidity values fall. It will be much more comfortable
Saturday night thanks to clearing skies and lowering humidity
values with overnight lows falling into the 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A very nice end to the weekend is in store for us on Sunday as
high pressure and dry air mass take control of the Northeast
with high temperatures in the 70s and comfortable humidity
values. Clouds increase Sunday night into Monday as our front
from Saturday lifts northward as a warm front. Guidance has
trended drier for Sun night through Monday and suggest most
showers remain mainly north/west of the Capital District as our
high builds into northern New England and keeps a hold over the
rest of the area. Otherwise, we remain comfortable on Monday in
the 70s as the true warmer and more humid air mass stays to our
south. However, this does not last long and the sfc warm front
finally lifts northward Monday night with deeper southwest flow
ensuing by Tuesday. This will ushering in higher humidity values
with chances for shower/storms also increasing as a more
amplified upper level trough tracks through southern Canada and
a cold front approaches from the west. Shear values will
increase so will need to monitor the potential for organized
convection depending on how strong instability values become. We
then trend drier Wednesday into Thursday as the trough pushes
through and subsidence in its wake builds into the Northeast.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z/Fri...VFR conditions are expected to continue for most
of the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon with some uncertainty whether any impact a TAF site.
Based on latest trends and CAMs, KALB/KPSF may be in closest
proximity to a thunderstorm so included a TEMPO for just these
sites. Additional rounds of scattered showers are likely tonight
into tomorrow morning so continued VCSH wording through the TAF
period. Once again, confidence in timing of individual showers is
low. Mainly VFR conditions are still expected during this time
though conditions could lower should any lower level clouds or fog
develop this evening/tonight. More widespread showers and some
thunderstorms will likely develop toward or just after 18z/Fri. Wind
will be variable at less than 10 kt this afternoon then become light
and variable to calm tonight through Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Rathbun