887
FXUS61 KALY 231031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
631 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A beautiful, late August day kicks off the weekend today before
batches of showers and thunderstorms plague the next two days.
Drier conditions and cooler than normal temperatures will then
be in place for the middle of the work week before temperatures
rise back towards normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
One more day of regionwide dry conditions enforced by
persistent ridging aloft and nearby surface high pressure is in
store for today before both depart the region in the face of an
advancing upper level low pressure system and surface cold
front. Strengthening southwesterly flow, plenty of breaks of
sun, localized downsloping, deep mixing, and amplified
geopotential heights will yield above normal temperatures in the
mid/upper 70s to mid and possibly upper 80s. That said,
dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s will keep humidity
levels low, thereby maintaining comfort despite increased warmth
compared to recent days. Aiding this further will be the
strengthening of southwesterly flow which, through downsloping
and deep mixing, will translate to a nice breeze throughout the
region this afternoon.

By this evening, the surface anticyclone currently displaced
just to our south will have or will nearly have departed the
Mid-Atlantic Coast with the crest of its associated upper level
ridge shifting east into New England. Upstream, a large scale
trough will be digging south and east in the Midwest/Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley below a deepening upper- level, closed low in
northeast Ontario. Beneath it, a surface cyclone will also
deepen around the James Bay, extending a cold front south and
west into the Great Lakes. As the upper trough shifts eastward
towards our region, the right entrance region of its upper jet
moves over the region, enhancing forcing for vertical ascent
whilst low-level convergence increases with the approach of the
surface trough. An initial line of showers and possibly some
thunderstorms will therefore develop tonight ahead of the cold
front and track northwest to southeast across eastern New York
and western New England. As this will be taking place
nocturnally, instability will be lacking. However, dynamic
cooling fueled by upslope flow in the Southwest Adirondacks and
marginally steep mid-level lapse rates could help storms to grow
tall enough to produce some lightning within the first couple
of hours of onset. Most showers and possible thunderstorms
overnight tonight will occur to the north and west of Albany.
Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The initial batch of showers begins to dissipate Sunday morning
as they gain distance from the better forcing to the north.
However, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
regenerate late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon as the
cold front nears and cyclonic vorticity advection increases due
to the further deepening of the trough courtesy of a shortwave
pulsing through its mean flow upstream. SBCAPE increasing to
~1000 to 1200 J/kg Sunday, especially to the north and west of
the Capital District, in tandem with steeper mid-level lapse
rates and 0-6km shear on the order of about 30 to 35 kt, will
aid in additional thunderstorms that could produce some gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours. At this time, the probability
of severe thunderstorms is low due to the better forcing being
displaced to our north and west. Highs Sunday will be in the
upper 60s to low 80s.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to slowly traverse
western New York through Sunday evening, gradually reaching the
western extent of our CWA by late Sunday night. The loss of
daytime heating should mitigate thunder overnight, but showers
will persist into Monday as the front continues to push
eastward. Additional thunderstorms will be possible mainly
within the Capital District, south, and east but again severe
storms are not likely. The front finally departs the region by
Monday evening, but broad troughing remaining in place will
ensure scattered showers, especially in the Southwest
Adirondacks where a moisture fetch off Lake Ontario will
intersect upslope flow to sustain them, continue throughout the
night Monday night. Lake enhanced showers will continue
periodically Tuesday in the Adirondacks, but dry conditions
return elsewhere. Low temperatures Sunday night will be similar
to those of Saturday night with highs Monday similar to those of
Sunday. Lows Monday night fall the the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s
with highs Tuesday noticeably cooler behind the front in the
upper 50s to low/mid 70s.

Dry conditions persist Tuesday night through Wednesday with
cooler than normal temperatures also remaining persistent. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will fall to the low 40s to low 50s
before highs rise into the low 60s to low 70s for Wednesday.
Wednesday night lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Thursday
will remain dry as well, though another upper- level disturbance
forces the return of shower chances beginning Thursday night
into Friday for the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and
Southern Greens. Temperatures will warm up a bit during this
time, however, with highs Thursday and Friday in the mid 60s to
upper 70s. Lows both Thursday and Friday nights will be in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sun...High pressure over the region will maintain VFR
conditions across the TAF sites for much of the upcoming period. The
exception to VFR conditions will be for any patchy fog development
at KGFL/KPSF this morning, though conditions will fully improve to
VFR in the next 1-2 hours. Light to calm winds tonight will increase
out of the south to southwest at around 10 kt midday, with gusts
around 20-25 kts through the afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...Speck