589
FXUS61 KALY 160614
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
214 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added in slight chance PoPs for northern areas through the next few
hours as a weakening line of showers tracks across the region.
Increased wind gusts and lowered dew points Friday behind a cold
front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures moderate back to above normal levels today and
tomorrow, along with increasing humidity. After a dry day today,
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, before
unsettled conditions return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:15 AM EDT...Sfc high pressure has
shifted off to our south and east, with a warmer airmass aloft
now moving overhead. Areas south and east of the Capital
District have stayed mainly clear so far tonight, and where
winds have been calm temps have dropped into the upper 40s.
North and west of Albany, current radar shows a line of showers,
with overcast skies per GOES 16 nighttime microphysics RGB
satellite product. Here, temps are mainly in the mid 50s, with
some upper 50s to around 60 near the Capital District where S/SE
winds remain breezy at around 10 kt per latest ASOS obs. While
this line of showers should weaken as it tracks east over the
next few hours, we did expand footprint of slight chance PoPs
from the NBM.

As a sfc low tracks well north of the region today, a cold front
will track to the W/SW of the region, but washes out and becomes
stationary there. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies today,
but with the warmer airmass aloft thanks to a closed 600 dam ridge
centered over TN, temps will be above normal, with most areas in the
upper 70s to around 80. Without any large-scale forcing, mainly dry
conditions are expected today. The aforementioned frontal
boundary begins to slowly lift back north tomorrow night. With
light S/SE flow and increasing dew points, more clouds (stratus)
are expected tonight. A few light showers can`t be ruled out
either towards daybreak, especially for southwestern areas.
Patchy fog/mist will be possible anywhere breaks in the clouds
develop thanks to the higher dew points. Overnight lows will
also be warmer than previous nights with most areas in the upper
50s to around 60.

On Thursday, a wave of low pressure will track along the frontal
boundary in response to an upper shortwave. This will help lift the
boundary back northwards as a warm front. Some uncertainty remains
in just how far north the frontal boundary will get with a 1025 mb
sfc high located in southeastern Canada. May need to lower temps
from the previous forecast for the eastern ADKs/Upper Hudson
Valley/CT River Valley with future forecasts if guidance continues
to show the front getting hung up near the I-90 corridor. For areas
south of the front, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s again
with muggy conditions. Scattered to numerous showers are expected
Thursday with the increasing lift and moisture. PWATs increase to
1.75 to 2.0", and flow aloft looks fairly parallel to the warm
frontal boundary, so some briefly heavy rain and training look
possible, although potential for hydro issues looks fairly low with
most areas going on a few days since the last appreciable rainfall.
Some instability (<500 J/kg) may be present W/SW of the Capital
District, so a few thunderstorms are possible here, but the overall
lack of instability should also help limit the potential for hydro
and/or severe weather concerns.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Thursday night into Friday, a fairly strong
cold front tracks through the region as the sfc low moves off to
the east and a closed upper low drops further south into eastern
Canada. Behind the front, much cooler and less humid weather is
expected with breezy NW winds. High pressure then builds
overhead Friday night, leading to favorable radiational cooling
conditions and temperatures dropping into the 30s (terrain) to
40s (valleys). Depending on how quickly the sfc high builds in,
temps may need to be lowered in the southern ADKs Friday night.
Still a few days away, but will monitor for the potentially for
some patchy frost in the southern ADKs Friday night as well.
The sfc high remains close enough to keep us mainly dry Saturday
with temps remaining below normal, mainly in the 60s.

Saturday night or Sunday, a sfc low tracking out of the Ohio
Valley/southern Great Lakes in response to an upper shortwave looks
to lift another warm front across the region with renewed chances
for showers. Monday and Tuesday may remain unsettled next week,
although confidence is low. The aforementioned boundary looks
to linger somewhere near our region, but it is uncertain how far
north it will get with high pressure building into southern
Canada. Near and south of the front, multiple rounds of showers
will be possible, with drier and cooler conditions to the north
of the boundary. Will work to refine this portion of the
forecast over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as
of 1:35 AM EDT, with mainly VFR conditions expected through the
duration of the TAF period. A weakening line of showers could bring
a few sprinkles to ALB/GFL within the first few hours of the TAF
period, but expecting any rain to be very light with little to no
operational impact. Can`t rule out some MVFR stratus developing at
GFL/PSF for a few hours late tonight/early this morning, but
confidence is fairly low whether or not this will happen. Any
stratus lifts by 15z with VFR conditions and BKN mid-level clouds
through sunset this evening. Some additional MVFR stratus will be
possible after sunset this evening through the end of the TAF
period, with some fog/mist possible if any breaks in the stratus
develop.

Winds will generally be light and variable through the rest of the
night at GFL/POU/PSF, but will remain around 10 kt at ALB from the
S/SE. This morning, all terminals see S winds (locally S/SW at POU
and W/SW at PSF) at 5-10 kt develop, lasting through sunset this
evening at which points winds become light and variable again for
all terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35