578
FXUS61 KALY 062018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
418 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave along a stalled front will produce shower and thunderstorms
this evening which will be capable of producing heavy downpours
and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into
Saturday, with drier and less humid weather anticipated for
Sunday with comfortable conditions. More showers and thunderstorms
are expected Monday through Wednesday next week with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

 -Widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
  continue into this evening and will lead to an increased risk
  for flash flooding across parts of the Catskills, Capital
  Region, Berkshires and southern Vermont. WPC has a Slight Risk
  (Level 2 of 4) for these areas and a Flood Watch for Flash
  Flooding was expanded to include Ulster, Bennington and
  Windham Counties.

 -The strongest thunderstorms may be capable of producing wind
  damage and hail this evening, especially across the southern
  Taconics, Berkshires and northwest Connecticut, where SPC has
  a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

Discussion:

As of 400 PM EDT...A wave moving along a front stalled across
the region is producing showers and thunderstorms over all but
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows surface-based instability of 1500
to 3000 j/kg over southeast part of area ahead of a line of
storms. CAMs (both the 3km HRRR and NAMNest) suggests line of
storms continue to move in a general ESE direction across the
the area this evening and should be east of our forecast area by
9pm. Some isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible,
especially for areas that see the best instability (Berkshires,
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT), where storms may be the tallest.
Some hail may occur again today within the tallest storms.

In addition, there will be the potential for heavy downpours
today. SPC analysis Max PWAT values are around 1.6 inches. The
Voorheesville mesonet site in Albany County recorded 1.87
inches in the last hour. Heavier downpours of around 2 inches
per hour remain possible through sunset. High rainfall rates may
allow for isolated to scattered flash flooding today,
especially in urban and low lying locations and poor drainage
areas may see ponding of water. Expanded the Flood Watch for
Flash Flooding from Schoharie Green and Ulster counties
northeastward into the Berkshires and southern Vermont,
including the Capital Region from Noon to Midnight. The main
impact times look to be through the early evening hours, when
CAMs show the heaviest downpours moving west to east across the
area.

By the late evening, there should be break in the precip for
most of the overnight hours, although it will remain mild and
muggy with the front just west of the area. Skies will remain
partly to mostly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing, with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another round of precip is
expected for Saturday morning as the boundary shifts back
eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada, the surface
boundary will begin making eastward progress once again on
Saturday. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected Saturday, mainly for early in the day, as the
front heads across the area from west to east. There could
continue to be some heavy downpours early on Saturday and some
additional flooding can`t be ruled out, especially for spots
that saw heavy rainfall on Friday. WPC has a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for eastern parts of the area. Temps will
only be in the 70s on Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky,
although some clearing is expected for later in the day behind
the departing front.

In the wake of the boundary, less humid air will pour in the
region for Saturday night into Sunday. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s. Sunday will be the best day on the weekend
(weather-wise) with a partly sunny sky and dry conditions. Temps
will be comfortable in the 70s as well. Some clouds may start to
increase by Sunday afternoon with some light showers possible
Sunday night, mainly for southwestern areas and lows in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Wednesday as a slow moving upper level low moves from the Great
Lakes across the Northeast. It appears Tuesday may have the
greatest coverage of precip thanks to the moist southerly flow
ahead of the approaching upper low. Some thunderstorms and heavy
downpours may be possible once again and WPC already has the
area in a Marginal Outlook for Excessive Rainfall for Day 5
(Tuesday). Upper level heights begin to rise Thursday and
ridging continues into Friday and this should bring mainly fair
weather with some warming. Otherwise, it will be fairly
seasonable for early June with temps in the 70s to low 80s and
lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon, an
area of rain continues to track eastward across the Mohawk
Valley and southern Adirondacks towards the terminals. Ahead of
this organized rain, isolated thunderstorms are already
developing. Storms are expected to increase in coverage through
18 - 20 UTC and we maintained the TEMPO group at all terminals
mainly through 00 - 01 UTC for potential IFR vis and ceilings
from thunderstorms and heavy rain. Not enough confidence to
include enhanced wind gusts in the TEMPO group but should a
storm become severe, brief wind gusts up to 30 - 50mph+ is not
ruled out.

Showers and storms taper off after 00 - 01 UTC from west to east
with rain and storms exiting POU and PSF likely last. Clouds
then looks to partially clear this evening (03 - 07 UTC) which
can support brief fog/mist/low stratus resulting in IFR
cigs/MVFR vis especially for terminals that see appreciable
rainfall this afternoon/evening. With a frontal boundary stalled
overhead, additional rain looks to redevelop along the front
early tomorrow morning mainly around the Catskills and increase
in coverage as the rain spreads north/westward through the
morning. Additional MVFR vis/ceilings are possible as the rain
becomes more widespread through the end of the TAF period.
Highest confidence for rain and MVFR flying at ALB, PSF and POU.
GFL may remain north/west of the boundary.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ047>054-058>061-
     063-064.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-
     042.
MA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/Frugis
NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis
SHORT TERM...SND/Frugis
LONG TERM...SND/Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale