040
FXUS61 KALY 200156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
956 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to move through eastern New York and
western New England tonight. Behind the front, cooler and drier
air will move into region for Easter Sunday, along with mostly
sunny and breezy conditions. Temperatures will be seasonable for
the start of the week on Monday with a chance for rain arriving
late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update as of 9:45 PM EDT...Potential thunderstorm development
has ended for tonight. Light scattered rain showers continue
through the overnight hours tonight before drier air moves in
during the morning hours. Additional light precipitation is
expected with these showers. Taking a look at some observed
precip amounts from this evening showers, most locations saw
between 0.1 inches up to 0.5 inches.

Update as of 7:45 PM EDT...A line of gusty rain showers
continues to move east across southern Vermont down to the
Greater Capital District. A rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out
as these showers move eastward in the next one to two hours. Latest
surface observations have been reporting between 25 and 35 mph
with these showers as well as between 0.15 and 0.3 inches of
rainfall. The current forecast is doing well and on track
through midnight tonight, see previous discussion for more
details.

Discussion:

As of 334 PM EDT...Our area is within a warm sector, with a
warm front now north of the area over northern New England. A
cold front is approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. While
northern areas continue to remain fairly cloudy, there has been
enough breaks for southern and western areas to quickly boost
temps. Temps range from the 60s over the Adirondacks to the low
80s in the mid Hudson Valley. Based on satellite trends, there
should be clearing trend over the next few hours, so the warmer
temps may expand further north and east through the early
evening, allowing temps in the Capital Region to get close to 80
degrees.

A pre-frontal trough allowed for a period of showers and
embedded thunderstorms this morning and again earlier this
afternoon, mainly for northern areas. This precip helped
allowed the dewpoints to rise, and values are generally in the
50s. With a south to southwest flow in place, dewpoints will
continue to rise through the early evening hours with some
values approaching the lower 60s by late today.

SPC mesoanalysis shows some SBCAPE for areas that have seen
better clearing today. Values across Schoharie County eastward
into the mid Hudson Valley, have values around 500 J/kg, with
lower values to the north. Values as high as 1000 J/kg are just
west of the area over the Southern Tier and CNY. With an upper
level shortwave approaching from the north, the mid level flow
is rather strong and SPC mesoanalysis shows around 50 knots of
0-6 km bulk shear over the area. Although instability is
limited, the strong shear, decent forcing from the sfc boundary
and just enough instability may allow for a strong storm this
evening.

SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms,
with a slight risk just brushing into southwestern areas. Latest
radar imagery only shows a few light showers over the area, with
a stronger complex of storms over central PA. CAMs suggest some
additional storms may develop ahead of the front across our
area between 6PM and 9 PM. If a stronger storm were to form,
gusty winds would be the main threat. After sunset, the limited
instability in place looks to wane with the nocturnal cooling
taking over and the front will be heading eastward. This should
end the threat for any strong storms. A few showers could linger
as late as 10 PM or 11 PM, but most areas will be done seeing
precip by that time. The exception may be the Adirondacks, where
a few late-night showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out with
the passing upper level trough to the north.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will start working into
the area. Temps will fall into the 40s for lows for most areas
(some mid to upper 30s over the highest terrain). With a
stregthening pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds are
expected for the late night hours and towards daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Seasonably cool, dry and breezy Easter Sunday.

- Shower chances increase late Mon pm into Mon night with a
  20-35% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall over the southwest
  Adirondacks.

Discussion:

Noticeably cooler and less humid weather is expected on Easter
Sunday with skies clearing through the morning hours. A strong
pressure gradient will be in place between the building high
over the Great Lakes and the departing storm system. With good
mixing in place, some gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range are
possible on Sunday, especially for the Capital Region and
Berkshires. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable and bright
Easter Sunday with temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Have leaned
towards the lower ended of the blended guidance for dewpoints
and higher end for wind gusts considering the good mixing in
place.

As high pressure gets closer to the area, winds will diminish on
Sunday night. With a fairly clear sky, it should be chilly night
and have lowered temps from the mean NBM guidance, with lows in
the 30s (some upper 20s over the Adirondacks).

Monday will start off dry and quiet, but the next system will be
approaching for late in the day and into Monday night. Clouds
will be increasing through the morning and highs will reach the
mid 50s to mid 60s by afternoon. As a frontal system approaches
from the Great Lakes, some showers are possible as early as the
afternoon and evening, with the highest chance during Monday
night. Overall, precip looks fairly light and the best chance of
seeing over the a quarter inch will be across the Adirondacks
and maybe southern Greens, where NBM probabilities for exceeding
a quarter inch are in the 20 to 35 percent range. Temps will
remain in the 40s on Monday night, keeping p-type just plain
rain for the entire area during this event.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers may be lingering early Tuesday across far eastern
areas, otherwise Tuesday will be drying out, with increasing
amounts of sunshine and drier conditons behind the departing
frontal boundary. Temps will still be fairly mild for southern
and eastern areas, with many spots well into the 60s to mid 70s.
Meanwhile, northwestern parts of the area will be noticeably
cooler, with temps only in the 50s to low 60s for the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Cool and dry conditions
are expected for the entire area for Tuesday night with lows
down into the 30s to low 40s for most spots, with continued dry
conditions.

Dry and comfortable conditions are expected for Wednesday into
Thursday with partly cloudy skies. Daytime temps will be well
into the 60s to lower to middle 70s, with 40s at night. The dry
weather could promote some increased fire weather conditions,
although RH won`t be extreme (mainly 40% or above) and winds
don`t look strong.

The next chance for widespread rain may arrive for Friday, as a
storm system approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time,
rainfall doesn`t look excessive or hazardous at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...A line of gusty showers (20 to 25 knots)
with embedded thunder continues to move east across eastern New
York into western New England at the beginning of the TAF period
for KALB and KPSF. KGFL and KPOU will be outside the line of
showers and should continue to be in VFR conditions. A brief
period of IFR conditions can be expected with any moderate to
heavy rainfall with this line of showers for KALB and KPSF.
Forecast confidence to not include mention of showers after 01z
is high as these showers are moving fast to the east. Once these
showers move through, a brief period of low ceilings could
occur through 02z. VFR conditions should return thereafter and
continue through tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some rainfall is expected this evening due to a passing frontal
boundary. Some areas could see a wetting rainfall depending on
the track of showers and thunderstorms.

Drier weather will return for Easter Sunday. Afternoon RH values
will be as low as 20 to 30 percent across the entire area.
Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts
as high as 25 to 35 mph. Depending on how much rainfall occurs,
fuels could be dry enough for the need for a Special Weather
Statement for increased risk for fire spread, mainly for
southern and eastern parts of the area. Coordination with state
partners will occur once this evening`s rainfall is known and
fine fuels are assessed.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Webb
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Webb
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Webb
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis