603
FXUS61 KALY 040732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
332 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are in store for eastern New York and western
New England on this Independence Day continuing through Monday
morning. Hot temperatures return Sunday and Monday. An active
weather pattern returns for the beginning of next week into
midweek with daily chances for afternoon rain showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy fog continues to develop this early morning across portions
of eastern New York and western New England, particularly in river
valley locations. As daylight increases this morning and clear skies
continue, patchy fog diminishes between 8 AM and 10 AM. Dry
conditions are in store for this Independence Day as surface high
pressure continues to move into the Northeast. Winds today will
start out as a nice gentle breeze, increasing to 10 to 15 mph for
this afternoon with wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph. Afternoon high
temperatures range in the 70s and low 80s. For those adventuring
outdoors this evening and tonight, temperatures tonight remain
comfortable and winds become calmer for a pleasant night in store
with clear skies. Overnight temperatures range in the 50s and 60s. A
few locations in the Catskills, Adirondacks, and southern Greens
could reach in the 40s for overnight temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

    -Hot temperatures and humid conditions return Sunday across
     eastern New York and western New England.

Discussion:
Surface high pressure over the Northeast continues to bring dry
conditions. High temperatures Saturday range in the 70s and
80s. Overnight lows range in the 60s. Summertime heat returns
for Sunday with hot afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s in
valley locations. Latest National Blend of Models 4.3
probabilistic data has high temperatures greater than 90 degrees
across the Greater Capital District down to the Mid-Hudson
Valley between 80 and 95 percent. Depending on dew point
temperatures and forecast trends, heat headlines could be needed
for Sunday as feels-like temperatures are currently ranging in
the 95 to 101 degrees range. Little to no relief from the humid
conditions is forecasted for Sunday night into Monday with
feels-like temperatures overnight in the upper 60s and low 70s
with forecasted low temperatures ranging in the 60s and 70s.
Remember to stay hydrated, have multiple ways to stay cool,
never leave pets or people in locked vehicles, and take frequent
breaks if spending long periods outdoors during peak heating
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

    - Hot temperatures and humid conditions continue Monday.

Discussion:
Summertime temperatures continue Monday where the potential for
dangerous heat is supported by latest ensemble forecast model
guidance and National Blend of Model 4.3 data. Probabilities for
high temperatures on Monday greater than 90 degrees is between
80 and 90 percent for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures
ranging in the 95 to 101 degrees range are more widespread and
include more of western New England for Monday. Depending on
forecast trends the next few days and feels-like temperatures,
heat headlines could be needed for Monday. Nevertheless, it`s
important to stay hydrated and have multiple ways of staying
cool.

Relief from the dangerous heat is in store for Tuesday as high
temperatures range in the 70s and 80s. It`s still going to feel
humid out as the humid airmass is still overhead, but we have
increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.

Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm and rain shower chances (30-
50%) return Monday as upper level shortwaves have support by latest
ensemble forecasts to move through bringing these unsettled weather
conditions to eastern New York and western New England. While being
this far out in the forecast period, there is a lot of
uncertainty on the exact track of these upper level shortwaves
and who exactly could see a rain shower or thunderstorm. But
ensemble forecast model guidance is in good agreement that high
pressure moves east and an unsettled weather pattern returns
for the beginning of next week into the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z/Sat...VFR conditions are mainly expected the next
24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU, except for some radiational
mist/fog that may briefly form at KGFL/KPOU due to clear skies,
calm winds and recently wet ground. We used TEMPO groups from
06Z-10Z/FRI to account for the IFR/LIFR mist fog. The mist/fog
should burn off quickly after 10Z/FRI with mostly clear skies
aside for a FEW- SCT cumulus in the 5-6 kft AGL range developing
in the afternoon. The winds will be light to calm prior to
sunrise, and then will increase from the N/NW at 8-13 KT with
some gusts around 20 KT in the late morning thru the afternoon.
The winds will decrease by 23Z/FRI from northwest at 7 KT or
less.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday to Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula