950
FXUS61 KALY 171854
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
254 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After another hot and humid day with scattered rain showers and
a few thunderstorms through this early evening, windy
conditions are in store tonight through tomorrow morning. Dry
conditions for tomorrow through Saturday afternoon when our next
weather system arrives bringing unsettled weather conditions
through the weekend. Near normal temperatures through next week
with drier conditions in store for Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

 - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through this early
   evening.

 - Relief from the heat and humidity tonight.

 - Windy conditions tonight into tomorrow morning with gusts
   potentially (45% chance) reaching up to 40-45 mph in valley
   locations.

Afternoon temperatures range in the 80s to low 90s with feels-
like temperatures outside between 95 and 101 degrees across
valley locations. The Heat Advisory for portions of eastern New
York and western New England continues through 7 PM tonight.
Relief from the heat and humid conditions arrives tonight with a
strong cold front moving through. Scattered rain showers and a
few thunderstorms continue to develop for this afternoon and
evening across eastern New York and western New England ahead of
a cold front moving through tonight. Gusty winds and heavy
downpours are the primary concerns with any developed
thunderstorm through the early evening hours. This cold front
will help contribute to the relief from the humidity and hot
temperatures.

Windy conditions will also follow suit behind the cold front as
a surface low pressure system heads north and east tonight and
tomorrow morning. Winds could gust between 35 and 45 mph
periodically through early tomorrow morning for the Mohawk
Valley into the Hudson Valley and Berkshires as latest high
resolution forecast models and probabilities from the National
Blend of Models supports winds greater than 30 mph is between 60
and 80 percent. Breezy conditions are in store elsewhere
through the early morning hours Friday. By tomorrow afternoon,
winds decrease and range between 10 and 15 mph.

Surface high pressure builds into the Northeast for tonight into
tomorrow bringing drier conditions and comfortable temperatures with
highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s for Friday. Less humid
conditions are in store through Saturday with chances (50-70%)
of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing Saturday
night into Sunday. A surface low pressure system quickly moves
through eastern New York and western New England Saturday night
into Sunday morning bringing these unsettled conditions.
Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves through and
how strong the surface high pressure moves in to the Northeast,
dry conditions return Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

Low chances of precipitation (less than 30%) for beyond Tuesday
as ensemble forecast models and National Blend of Models
probabilistic guidance supports a variety of weather conditions
as we could see either dry conditions or afternoon rain shower
activity. Temperatures throughout the week remain seasonal with
highs ranging in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s. Towards the end of next week, hot afternoon
temperatures could return with temperatures ranging in the 80s
and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR flying conditions will prevail through 18 UTC with isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through 00 UTC
ahead of a potent cold front. We included a Prob30 and TEMPO
groups for brief storms at PSF, ALB and GFL 18 - 23 UTC with
potential for MVFR flying conditions. Cannot rule out IFR vis
during any heavy downpours but not enough confidence to include
IFR vis. Then, an impressive cold front continues marching
eastward late this afternoon into early this evening resulting
in strong, gusty winds shifting from the south/southwest to
west/northwest. Gusts up to 30-35mph are likely through 12 UTC
with winds gradually weakening after 12 UTC.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Vtz013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Nyz043-049-050-
052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084. MA...None. VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Speciale