181
FXUS61 KALY 171058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
658 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late this
morning through the early evening hours. Thunderstorms could
become strong to severe (15-29%) today with the primary hazards
being damaging wind gusts and hail. Lingering showers for
Sunday into Monday morning with drier conditions in store
through Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

    - Severe thunderstorm potential (15-29% chances) still on for
late this morning into the early evening with all potential severe
weather hazards (Winds stronger than 58 mph, hail greater 1 inch,
heavy rainfall)

Timing of thunderstorm activity: 9 AM to 2 PM for locations north of
I-90, Noon to 8 PM for locations along and south of I-90.

Discussion:

Scattered thunderstorms are still on track beginning late this
morning into this evening where some storms can become severe.
Latest high resolution forecast model guidances are telling us
a very interesting story on how storms could potentially develop
today as we have enough ingredients needed for thunderstorms to
develop. The first round of rain showers and thunderstorms move
from west to northeast in a linear (straight) line across
locations north of I-90 where a few could become strong. The
most likely (75%) timing is from 9 AM to Noon. The second round
of showers is where some forecast uncertainty still remains on
who sees the strongest storms this afternoon, but the timing is
between Noon and 8 PM this evening. The initial second round of
showers and thunderstorms begin to pop up (sometimes like to be
called popcorn showers) between noon and 2 PM then transitioning
to a more linear line of storms between 2 PM and 5 PM that will
quickly move through eastern New York and western New England,
exiting to our east by 8 PM tonight. While this scenario could
occur, not everyone may see impactful thunderstorms today and
experience severe weather. The track of storms could shift with
newer forecast model data, but storm movement today will be
fast and moving from west to east. This is also why if flooding
does occur today, it would primarily be in locations that have
poor drainage and see multiple storms throughout the day.

While all severe weather hazards could occur today with developed
thunderstorms, the primary concern is strong to damaging wind gusts
greater than 58 mph and hail up to one inch. Latest forecast model
guidances are hinting at a very low potential (less than 2%) for an
isolated tornado with storms today. Remember to be weather
aware and prepared for thunderstorms to become strong to severe
today such as having multiple ways to receive warnings, securing
loose outdoor items, having an action plan to move indoors if
you are outdoors when you hear thunder, and clearing drainage
locations from debris (such as leaves and grass clippings).
After 8 PM, around sunset, conditions become less favorable for
storms to become strong and scattered rain showers are supported
to continue throughout the overnight hours as a surface low
pressure system moves overhead and a cold front finishes moving
through eastern New York and western New England. This cold
front will help relieve us of these muggy conditions and bring
temperatures to be much cooler in the 50s and 40s for higher
terrain locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As a surface low pressure system heads north and east that brought
the cold front Saturday night, lingering rain showers are in store
for Sunday with light rainfall amounts. Breezy conditions and cooler
temperatures are in store as well for Sunday afternoon. By early
Sunday night, precipitation should become mostly confined to higher
terrain locations through Monday morning when drier conditions are
in store. Dry conditions return for Monday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday range in the 50s and 60s. Low
temperatures range in the 30s for higher terrain locations while
elsewhere will range in the 40s. Cool and comfortable temperatures
ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure nosing in from the Great Lakes will bring one more day
of mainly dry weather to eastern New York and western New England on
Tuesday. High temperatures will remain below normal with values in
the 50s and 60s.

A period of unsettled weather returns by Wednesday and continues
through the end of the week. Two separate upper level
lows/shortwaves will interact with each another over the Upper Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region and later develop a longwave upper level
trough over the region. A cut off upper low may also develop and
spin overhead for multiple days. At the surface, low pressure will
track from the Ohio Valley to the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. By
Thursday, the interior low will weaken while a stronger surface low
develops off the mid-Atlantic coast and tracks northeastward into
New England. Sufficient lift/moisture will result in periods of
rainfall beginning on Wednesday and continuing through at least
Friday. Latest NBM probabilities for rainfall to exceed 0.50 inches
and 1.00 inches spanning Wednesday through Friday are between 60 and
90 percent and 30 and 65 percent, respectively. The clouds and
precipitation will keep temperatures below normal for the remainder
of the week with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows in the upper
30s to mid-40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sun...IFR/MVFR stratus will dissipate and lift back
to VFR later this morning. While a shower or rumble of thunder
could pass across some TAF sites later this morning, the higher
confidence time frame for additional showers and thunderstorms
will be after 19z/Sat. Kept TEMPO and PROB30 groups for all TAF
sites for the afternoon hours for possible reductions to
IFR/MVFR in any passing thunderstorm. Additional showers will
likely cross the TAF sites after 00z/Sun but should not contain
much if any thunder. Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions are expected
after 00z/Sun. Wind will become south to southwesterly at
around 10 kt with a few higher gusts to around 20 kt. Wind will
shift to the west to southwesterly direction in the wake of a
cold front beginning around 22z/Sat to 00z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun