918
FXUS61 KALY 181938
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring a few showers or thunderstorms this
evening into tonight, mainly well north and west of the Capital
District. Well above normal temperatures in store for Saturday,
with a cold front bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into the early evening. High
pressure builds east from the Great Lakes on Sunday with fair
weather, breezy conditions and seasonably cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in well above normal temperatures Saturday.

- Medium chances(35-70%) for showers with a low chance(15-25%)
  for thunderstorms Saturday into early Saturday evening ahead
  of a cold front.

Discussion:

A warm front approaching SW NY and NE PA will lift northward
across our area through this evening, then set up across
northern NY and New England overnight into Sat morning. This
front will be the focus for showers and a few T-storms mainly
confined to the Adirondacks/Lake George area, which is where the
best forcing will be in close proximity to the warm front. Some
of the showers early this evening could dry up with low surface
dewpoints(mid 20s to mid 30s). Guidance continues to show steep
lapse rates aloft(7-8 degC/km from 700-500 mb), evident of an
EML so isolated small hail may occur with some of the
thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be much milder ranging from
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

By Sat afternoon, our area will be in a warm sector ahead of an
cold front approaching from the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures
will get quite warm(70s to lower 80s) ahead of the cold front
with a gusty SW breeze around 20-30 mph developing during the
afternoon. NBM probs for highs > 75F are 70-100% in lower
elevations from around the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys south.
Coverage of P.M. showers/T-storms is dependent on how much
moisture can pool ahead of the cold front. Guidance varies with
dewpoint forecast, downsloping SW winds off the Helderbergs and
Catskills may limit dewpoints somewhat in the Hudson Valley. So
will continue to mention mainly scattered coverage of showers
with a slight chance for thunder as SBCAPE expected to be in the
300-700 J/Kg range. Severe storms are not anticipated due to
limited instability, although a few stronger winds gusts cannot
be ruled out with a decent westerly jet of 45-50 kt at 850 mb.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Seasonably cool, dry and breezy Sunday.

Discussion:

A few showers/T-storms may linger into early Sat evening as the
aforementioned cold front continues to move through. However,
as daytime heating is lost along with fairly limited forcing,
chances will gradually diminish. The cold front will push
south/east of the entire area by late evening, with subsidence
and cold advection commencing overnight. Temperatures will fall
to the lower 30s in the Adirondacks to well 40s well south of
Albany by early Sun morning.

Sun looks dry with slightly below normal temperatures as high
pressure builds east across the Great Lakes and a confluent
westerly flow aloft. With the high centered to our north/west
through the day, there will be a persistent NW breeze gusting
20-30 mph. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will build in
Sun night, providing dry/cool conditions. Lows look to be
slightly below normal ranging from upper 20s in the mountains to
upper 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Shower chances increase late Monday into Monday night with a
  20-40% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall north of the Capital
  Region.

Discussion:

High pressure shifts east off the coast on Mon. Dry conditions
look to persist through much of the day now, with chances for
showers increasing from west to east late Mon afternoon into Mon
night as a frontal system approaches from the west. The primary
cyclone is forecast to track from the upper Great Lakes into SE
Canada Mon night into Tue. The system`s occluded front moves
through early Tue with showers gradually ending. Will continue
to mention mainly likely PoPs, although rainfall amounts look
light with around 0.10- 0.25". Temperatures look to be slightly
above normal Mon into Tue.

Surface high pressure builds in Tue night into Wed with flat
zonal flow aloft, resulting in fair conditions with slightly
above normal temperatures. This pattern may hold Thu into Fri,
but guidance diverges with regards to a potential system
approaching. Will mention slight to low chance PoPs at this time
until guidance comes into better agreement. Temperatures are
expected be above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon through tonight with some passing mid and high clouds.
Any passing shower activity this afternoon into tonight will
likely either not reach the ground or generally remain to the
north of the TAF sites. The exception could be at KGFL overnight
but confidence was not high enough to include VCSH at this
time. Isolated to scattered showers may pass over some TAF sites
Saturday morning (after 12z). Have included VCSH to address
this potential as well as PROB30 groups for possible MVFR
conditions. Confidence was not high enough to include thunder at
this time for any showers after 12z/Sat. Winds will remain
southerly this afternoon through tonight and be gusty,
especially this afternoon and early evening, with gusts reaching
25-30 kt. Wind will become more southwesterly and gusty after
12z/Sat. Periods of LLWS will be possible at most sites tonight
into Saturday as winds at 2000 feet increase to 35-45 kt, out of
the southwest tonight, then west-southwest on Saturday. This is
especially true should surface winds decrease to less than 10
kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Special Weather Statement in effect until 7 PM for the
Upper/Middle Hudson Valley and Catskill zones since RH values
are lower than previously forecast (25-35%), which combined with
increasing southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon
result in a an elevated risk of fire spread.

Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Litchfield
County, CT through 7 PM today due to input from CT State Fire
Weather Officials due to low relative humidity values around
25-35% and wind gusts of 20-30 mph.

Saturday will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s in valley areas, with a west-southwest
wind gusting 20-30 mph at times. However, low level moisture
will also be increasing with minimum RH values of 40-50%
expected. Sunday looks cooler, but also much drier with minimum
RH values of 25-35% and northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph, so
there is an increased threat of fire spread and conditions will
need to be monitored.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/Wasula