828
FXUS61 KALY 230057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
857 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the hottest days of the week, with
heat indices as high as 110 degrees for some valley locations.
While Monday remains dry, a few thunderstorms are possible for
northern areas Tuesday, and more widespread showers and storms
are possible Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front brings an
end to the extreme heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A warm and muggy night is in store for eastern NY and western
New England. Low temperatures are still on track to range in the
upper 60s and low 70s. The heat advisory for today has ended as
feels-like temperatures are decreasing as daylight also
decreases for the night. Heat headlines are still in effect for
tomorrow (more details about tomorrow below in the short term
discussion). Latest high resolution model guidance and National
Blend of Models 4.3 data shows dry conditions in store tonight
so PoPs and QPF for the overnight hours have been updated to
reflect these conditions. Patchy fog is still on track for late
tonight into tomorrow morning across most valley locations and
portions of the southern Adirondacks. Visibility can quickly be
reduced in dense fog, so use extra caution while traveling
tonight. As daylight increases during the early morning hours
now, locations where fog develops should diminish between 5 AM
and 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Dangerous heat will continue Monday into Tuesday. Feels-like
   temperatures could approach 110 degrees in some valley areas
   Monday and/or Tuesday.

 - A few potentially strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday,
   mainly across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley

Discussion:

Monday and Tuesday...The upper ridge continues to amplify to 598+
dam as it remains centered south of our region. This will allow the
hot, humid airmass to fully overspread our region Monday and
Tuesday. Valley areas will see high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. A few areas in the Mid Hudson Valley could even briefly touch
100 degrees. Dew points will be in the low to mid 70s for valley
areas, making it feel oppressively hot and humid. Little relief is
expected Monday night with overnight lows mainly in the 70s, and
Tuesday`s temperatures and dew points will be very similar to those
on Monday. We have not made any changes to the existing heat
headlines, with extreme heat warnings for many valley areas and heat
advisories elsewhere, except for portions of the ADKs. For areas in
the warning, heat indices of 105-110 will be possible both Monday
and Tuesday.

While most of Monday remains dry as we are capped and very warm
aloft, a cold front begins to drop southwards from southern Canada
Tuesday late afternoon and evening. This could lead to the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms across the southern
ADKs, upper Hudson Valley. and possibly southern VT, although
coverage looks relatively isolated with a cap still in place and
overall forcing remaining on the weaker side. Nevertheless, any
storms that develop could become strong to severe, with 2000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE overlapping with 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. SPC
has placed our northern areas in a marginal risk for severe weather.
The primary hazard would be damaging winds, with large hail also
possible. Numerical guidance has trended slightly faster with the
southward progression of the cold front over the past 12-24 hrs, and
if this trend continues then the severe threat may be higher than
currently expected Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms should
diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight
lows remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the region, but
the ADKs may see temperatures drop into the mid 60s, especially if
the cold front can sag far enough southwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Heat and humidity decrease from north to south Wednesday, with
   cooler temperatures and increasing chances (40-70%) for
   showers/thunderstorms by Thursday.

Discussion:

Long term period begins at 12z Wednesday with the upper ridge
beginning to deamplify, and the surface cold front continuing to
drop south through our region. For areas south of the cold front, it
will still be hot and humid, and additional heat advisories may
therefore be needed for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and/or
Litchfield County. With the front dropping south, there will also be
a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially
towards the I-84 corridor where the instability will be greatest.
While the details will have to be sorted out over the coming days,
we will have to monitor for the potential for some stronger storms.
Should the trend continue for the cold front to drop south quicker
than previously anticipated, this would reduce the potential for
stronger storms in our region, favoring areas further south of our
CWA. Showers and storms should begin to diminish after sunset, with
overnight lows a few degrees cooler than the previous couple nights.

Thursday...The cold frontal boundary looks to stall somewhere over
the southern half of our region. An upper shortwave tracking along
the low-level thermal gradient is expected to enhance the upper
forcing for ascent, so we are expecting greater coverage of showers
and storms compared to Wednesday. Similar to Wednesday, details
regarding the potential for any stronger storms will have to be
ironed out over the coming days.

Friday and Saturday...Some sources of guidance suggest that the
front drops south our region, while others keep the stalled frontal
boundary near our region. If the boundary pushes off to our south
then we would see drier and cooler conditions, although if the
boundary remains nearby then we will likely have continued afternoon
showers and storms around. Adjustments/refinements to this portion
of the forecast can be expected over the next several days.
Temperatures generally look more seasonable, mainly in the 70s or
low 80s for daytime highs and lows in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We start the TAF period with a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions
due to low cloud ceilings. Beginning between 03z and 06z, mist
and patchy fog can develop across all TAF sites which has been
mentioned in TEMPO groups as visibilities and ceilings could
fluctuate between IFR and MVFR throughout the overnight hours.
This will greatly depend on cloud coverage across KALB and KPSF
airfield as the low stratus cloud layer could prevent fog from
developing. Between 12z and 14z, conditions should begin to
improve to MVFR and VFR for the 12z to 24/00z timeframe. Winds
will be calm overnight (helping contribute to the fog
development) then become light and variable for tomorrow
morning.


Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for June 23 and June 24:

June 23
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1888
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 1965
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1894

June 24:
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1943 Poughkeepsie, NY:
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 2013
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1914

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-054-058-063.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ042-082.
MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Webb
CLIMATE...Speciale